The debate

The day after

My assessments was F for DJT (as expected, mostly lies, slanders and irrational crackpottery), D for the moderators (they let DJT interrupt, gave him significantly more time than Harris and they did not always fact check DJT's blatant lies) and C for Harris. The main MSNBC politics crew apparently would have given Harris and the moderators an A and DJT an F. Faux News (Hannity, JD Vance, JFK Jr would have given Harris and the "far left" moderators an F and DJT an A. Faux said Harris lied constantly, e.g., about fracking, confiscating guns and defunding the police.

Those assessments aside, what really mattered was the reaction of undecided voters. Some initial polling indicated that 63% said Harris won and 37% said DJT won. If that polling holds up in the next couple of weeks, then maybe my assessment was wrong, particularly about the effectiveness of Harris' performance. I tried to look at the debate from the point of view of an undecided voter, something I may do not understand very well. From there Harris looked mediocre to me. But maybe to others, she looked pretty good and/or DJT looked mostly like the radical freak liar he has been since 2016. 

NYT commentary: For two undecided voters: Bob and Sharon Reed, both 77-year-old retired teachers who live on a farm in central Pennsylvania, had high hopes for the debate between Ms. Harris and former President Donald Trump. They thought that they would come away with a candidate to support in November. But, Ms. Reed said, “It was all disappointing.” .... But not all voters, especially those undecided few who could sway the election, were effusive about the vice president’s performance.

WaPo reporting: Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) praised Trump’s debate performance in the spin room following it. But he also acknowledged some skill on Harris’s part. “What we learned tonight is that Kamala Harris is actually probably pretty good at needling people,” he said. .... [commentary like the following is what reflected my reactions in giving Harris a C] As the debate went on, Harris continued to do just that. She described herself as a “middle-class kid raised by a hardworking mother,” and as someone who, unlike Trump, knows “not everybody got handed $400 million on a silver platter and then filed bankruptcy six times.” And she repurposed Trump’s signature line from his signature show, “The Apprentice,” to rebut his repeated false claim that the 2020 election was stolen. “Donald Trump was fired by 81 million people,” she said. “So let’s be clear about that. And clearly he is having a very difficult time processing that.” [maybe that kind line by Harris was more effective than I initially thought]

A WaPo swing state poll: In the first presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, The Washington Post tried something new: We asked a group of uncommitted, swing-state voters in real time about their reactions to Tuesday’s debate. They thought Harris performed better, regardless of how they plan to vote in November.

So again, my assessment of Harris' performance seems to have underestimated her.

The day of the debate

Continue this chat tomorrow.

At ~15 min: So far Harris is doing badly responding to DJT. DJT is flinging tons of lies and BS at her but she is having a hard time directly responding. She just can't get her footing. DJT is winning so far.

At ~20 min DJT spews horrific lies about abortion. Harris finally says DJT is telling lies. Finally. Harris finally attaches DJT with Project 2025. DJT responds with blatant lies about his policy and what "Americans wanted." DJT calls Harris a liar, then launches into another blast of lies. Harris' comeback is OK but not that impressive. She forgets that most Americans want a national law to protect abortion. DJT keeps saying (lying) Americans want to decide at the state level.

At ~26 min Harris talks about being a prosecutor and immigrants and drugs coming over the border. She argues that DJT killed the Republican border bill, but her attack is mediocre at best. DJT responds with blatant lies about Harris' rallies and his crowd sizes. He blamed Dems for the border mess, ignoring the fact that he killed the border bill. DJT says illegals are eating dogs and cats in Springfield OH, which is totally insane and not supported by facts. DJT says people say that on TV. Harris' response to that blast of lies and crackpottery is again mediocre at best -- she is off point. In response, DJT blithers about him firing people, but Biden didn't fire anyone and he lies about getting more votes than presidential candidate ever. DJT's lies are just overwhelming Harris.

At ~34 min DJT lies and says Harris is letting foreign criminals into the US and US crime is "through the roof." All lies. Now DJT is lying to one of the moderators, who are doing a piss poor job of calling out DJT's lies. Harris points out all of DJT's crimes. DJT responds he is winning in court and the lawsuits against him are all political and Biden-inspired and bogus. That's another blast of blatant lies. Harris hits back citing DJT's comments about cancelling the constitution. DJT interrupts and says he "took a bullet to the head" because of Harris and Biden.

At ~42 min DJT lies about his "many, many" billions of dollars he made. DJT accuses Harris of defund the police and DJT tells her to shut up, she shuts up. DJT lies about fracking and criminals, blaming Harris and Dems and lying about her policies and destroying America. DJT blithers about the size of solar farms, when they are tiny in terms of US land mass. DJT then lies about illegal immigrants killing people and not being prosecuted. DJT lies about Pelosi being responsible for the 1/6 coup attempt. Harris counters saying DJT fomented the 1/6 attack and he was impeached for it, but then she goes into Chrarlottesville and the 'fine people on each side' thing.

At this point, personal frustration with the weakness of Harris' responses is getting hard to contain. I hope I misread this, but DJT is clearly winning with blatant lies and slanders that Harris cannot effectively rebut. 

At ~51 min DJT denies losing the 2020 election and his prior comment "lost by a whisker" was sarcasm. Again, DJT just blasts out lies and nobody can counter him in this stupid ABC debate format. DJT is steamrolling both Harris and the moderators. Harris' response is mediocre at best. She just cannot land a solid punch. DJT hits back citing Hungary's dictator Viktor Orban as a smart leader who thinks the world wants DJT to be president because DJT is respected and feared. DJT attacks Harris' run in 2020.

At ~57 min the Israel mess is asked about. Harris responds, calls for ceasefire and a 2-state solution, but will always arm Israel -- rebuild Gaza. DJT responds saying the war would never have started if he was in office. Then DJT slanders Harris saying she hates Israel and the Arab populations too. He blames everything bad in the Middle East on Harris-Biden. Harris says she does not hate Israel and comments, including some comments about Ukraine and North Korea -- mediocre. Harris still does not have the guts to call DJT a dictator. DJT barges in and blithers lies about crime and the gross incompetence and weakness of Biden and the Dems.

At ~70 min DJT blithers about Ukraine -- claims the war will be settled before he is sworn into office if he is re-elected  because he knows how to get the job done. Harris can't respond because DJT  interrupts. Harris then gets a chance to respond and again her response seems to be too soft -- she gets into details and it just isn't working. Then, finally Harris starts to hits DJT harder. DJT responds with blither and a whopper lie that Harris was sent to negotiate with Putin and Zalenski about the Ukraine war. Harris calls that a lie, which is it.

The "moderators" keep letting DJT interrupt. 

I can't watch this any more. I'll pick this up here again tomorrow.

Consumer products update: About the FGC-9

The NYT reports about the FGC-9 semiautomatic gun (a pistol caliber carbine) that is in growing use by criminals, terrorists and freedom fighters worldwide. 

He’s Known as ‘Ivan the Troll.’ His 3D-Printed 

Guns Have Gone Viral

From his Illinois home, he champions guns for all. The Times confirmed his real name and linked the firearm he helped design to terrorists, drug dealers and freedom fighters in at least 15 countries

In the past three years, this model of homemade semiautomatic firearm, known as an FGC-9, has appeared in the hands of paramilitaries in Northern Ireland, rebels in Myanmar and neo-Nazis in Spain. In October, a British teenager will be sentenced for building an FGC-9 in one of the latest terrorism cases to involve the weapon.

An online group known as Deterrence Dispensed publishes free instructions on how to build the weapon, a manual that says people everywhere should stand armed and ready.

“We together can defeat for good the infringement that is taking place on our natural-born right to bear arms, defend ourselves and rise up against tyranny,” the document says.

The FGC-9, Fuck Gun Control 9 mm, is made by 3-D printers and its at-home manufacture is not regulated, probably because it is not regulatable. Governments would have to regulate 3-D printers or the materials used to make the gun, but neither is practical and thus not possible.

The NYT thinks the gun's design came from a gun nut in Illinois called Ivan the Troll. The FGC-9 has spread throughout the world. It can use Glock magazines or custom 3D-printed magazines.

FGC-9 body parts

not a stud muffin or hot chick

The fine consumer products website, 3D Gun Builder.com is all over this fine piece of machinery.

Discount product code: STAYFROSTY

Consider the near future, say ~2-3 years out in time. AI will be used to improve the design and lethality of 3D print-at-home guns. Presumably fully automatic AI-designed guns will pop up because of their highly desirable increased lethality. 

The semiautomatic nature of the FGC-9, along with its relatively low cost and ease of production, has raised concerns among law enforcement and policymakers about its potential for misuse. Yes indeed, there just might be a potential for misuse, e.g., mass slaughter of teachers, janitors, and school children.

Q: Is America's broken government** up to the task of dealing with the FGC-9 and home-made printed guns generally, or is this something that does not need to be dealt with because the free markets running wild and butt naked will take care of whatever problems might pop up (because free markets always solve all problems far, far better than any government ever could)?

** In particular, the mindlessly vehemently pro-gun GOP backed by gun lobby free speech (cash)

Regarding the disgruntled/confused radical right and the Golden Rule

Authoritarianism: the enforcement or advocacy of strict obedience to authority at the expense of personal freedom; lack of concern for the wishes or opinions of others, i.e., ignoring majority public opinion

The NYT reports (not paywalled) about two surprisingly large groups of grumpy/confused MAGA voters:

What Polls Say About a Key Group: 

Begrudging Trump Voters

The race for the White House couldn’t be much closer. With less than two months to go until Election Day, the latest New York Times/Siena College polling has Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a campaign with no clear front-runner. Beyond the national numbers, there are key battleground state polls that suggest the same state of play, with Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump essentially evenly matched.

In a race this tight, even a seemingly small development could matter a lot. Swaying a few thousand voters in the right places could make all the difference. In a race with a large portion of voters saying they’ll never vote for Mr. Trump and a nearly-as-large portion saying they’ll never vote for Ms. Harris, the range of potential movement in the electorate is limited.

Love him or hate him, people already know how they feel about Mr. Trump. In the Times/Siena poll, only 9 percent of likely voters say they still need to learn more about him. [Only about 9%?? That’s freaking huge!] If you like him today, you’re almost certainly choosing him. However, there’s a small group I’ll call “begrudging Trump voters” — those who dislike him but plan to vote for him anyway. In the Times/Siena poll, about 7 percent of those who said they would vote for Mr. Trump fell into this category; he gets their votes even though they also say they think of him unfavorably.

These begrudging Trump voters are the most important audience for Ms. Harris to speak to when the candidates debate on Tuesday night. What does she need to do to sway them? I believe the key will be credibly conveying a sense of confident moderation, as a matter of both ideology and temperament.

About 9% still need to learn more about DJT. About 7% dislike him but will voted for him anyway, most presumably seeing DJT as the lesser of two evils. Given how close the election looks set to be, those are two huge groups of voters.

In my opinion, that says a lot about politics. It's not much different than what various groups of people say the bible says or Jesus said. Politics really is like religion in important ways.

It also says a lot about the staggering power of dark free speech. What about rhetoric from DJT, the GOP  and much, maybe most, of the MAGA rank and file? It clearly is far darker, far more disrespectful and far more explicitly threatening compared to Harris and Dem rhetoric. That is a fact, not an opinion.

At the recent Dem convention, both Barak Obama and Bill Clinton said that we need to apply the golden rule to our fellow voters. Give them respect, listen to their grievances and worries, and act in grace and good will with genuine empathy for their intense anger at and fear of political opposition, and their deep distrust of us in the opposition and our preferred political candidates. 

☹️

🤨

😠

🥺

🤔

😱

I confess to a gush of emotional reactions to the reality of authoritarian radical right tactics like dark rhetoric juxtaposed with the much lighter rhetoric of the Dems and the left generally. The preferred DJT/GOP/MAGA policies among many or most on the radical right are openly bigoted (anti-LGBQT, etc.), in open denial of global warming, openly anti-democracy, openly anti-civil liberties, clearly deeply corrupt (anti-rule of law, pro-secrecy, etc.) and deeply authoritarian (a mix of autocratic, plutocratic and Christian theocratic). 

From what I can tell, the feelings, grievances and worries of most of the MAGA rank and file are significantly to mostly based on lies, slanders and flawed, crackpot conspiracy theories and/or reasoning. By contrast, most of the elites are not deceived like the rank and file. They know exactly what they are doing, killing democracy and civil liberties, and what they want, i.e., a lot more wealth and power. How can a person address a grievance that is based on a lie?

Barak and Bill want us go high and to apply the Golden Rule to people who support bigoted, radical right kleptocratic authoritarianism. Is that mostly a form of appeasement or mostly something else?

Can DJT or MAGA authoritarianism be appeased? Will applying the Golden Rule make a detectable difference? I do not know the answer (but have opinions) and cannot change anything. All I can do is watch how this plays out.

Does anyone sense a reality and/or logic disconnect between what Barak and Bill urge and the reality of MAGA? I think there is non-trivial disconnect. So, one final thought in the form of a Perplexity Q&A:

Q: In general, has it been possible to appease and blunt the forces of authoritarianism when they attack non-authoritarian regimes?

A: In general, appeasing or blunting authoritarian forces when they attack non-authoritarian regimes has not been an effective long-term strategy. There are several reasons for this:

Emboldening Authoritarian Aggression 

Attempts to appease authoritarian regimes often embolden them to become more aggressive rather than moderating their behavior. Authoritarian leaders tend to view concessions as signs of weakness that can be exploited further. This can lead to escalating demands and attacks on democratic institutions.

Undermining Democratic Norms
Making concessions to authoritarian forces often requires compromising core democratic principles and norms. This can weaken the foundations of democratic systems from within, playing into the authoritarian playbook of gradually eroding checks and balances.

Salami Tactics 

Modern authoritarian leaders often use "salami tactics," chipping away at democracy incrementally rather than through sudden takeovers. Appeasing individual actions fails to address this gradual erosion and can allow authoritarians to consolidate power over time.

Attacking Vulnerable Groups

Authoritarian regimes frequently scapegoat and attack vulnerable communities to sow division. Appeasing such attacks on minority groups contradicts core democratic values of equal rights and protections.

International Collaboration 

Authoritarian regimes increasingly collaborate to support each other and undermine democracy globally. Appeasing individual authoritarian actors fails to address this broader trend of authoritarian cooperation.

Enduring Impact 

Even if an individual authoritarian leader is appeased or removed from power, the institutional damage and ideological forces they unleashed can persist long after. This makes it difficult to fully blunt authoritarian forces through short-term concessions.

Rather than appeasement, effectively countering authoritarianism generally requires robustly defending democratic institutions, protecting civil liberties, addressing underlying societal grievances, and coordinating internationally to support democracy. While engagement and diplomacy have roles to play, history suggests that appeasing authoritarian aggression often leads to further democratic backsliding rather than moderating authoritarian behavior. 

Can I get a word in edgewise?

 I have decided I need to vote against the Democrats.

Why?

Because I have heard that the Democrats have allowed Haitian refugees who are eating ducks and cats.

And ONLY Trump can protect them.

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This is some serious shit folks, voting for Democrats is voting for Haitian immigrants to come here and eat YOUR ducks and cats.

Vote MAGA!