MAGA updates: Fudging the data; How the ABA sees MAGA; Any comments on the SOTU?

The NYT reports that the MAGA thug running the commerce department, Howard Lutnick, is planning to fudge the numbers on America's GDP to obscure evidence of an impending recession:

Comments from a member of President Trump’s cabinet over the weekend have renewed concerns that the new administration could seek to interfere with federal statistics — especially if they start to show that the economy is slipping into a recession.

In an interview on Fox News on Sunday, Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, suggested that he planned to change the way the government reports data on gross domestic product in order to remove the impact of government spending.

Federal spending cuts and reducing the federal work force will be drag on economic growth in coming months. Removing federal spending from G.D.P. calculations obscures the impact of djt and MAGA policies.

Lutnick claims this will increase transparency. One can assume fudging the numbers will decrease transparency while increasing secrecy. The GDP is a measure of consumer spending, private-sector investment, net exports, and government investment and spending. That gives an approximation of all goods and services produced in a country. The definition of gross domestic product has been unchanged for decades. It is widely accepted by experts.

FWIW, Project 2025 suggests consolidating the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, and Bureau of Labor Statistics into a single agency. This consolidation will undermine the independence and data collection capabilities of these important agencies. They provide vital economic and demographic information. P2025 also recommends maximizing the hiring of political appointees in statistical analysis positions, which will lead to politically motivated data manipulation, i.e., lying affirmatively and by omission. djt's executive orders have already removed or manipulated over 8,000 web pages and approximately 3,000 datasets across multiple federal agencies. For MAGA seeking to hide inconvenient facts, truths and reasoning, data manipulation and secrecy are the primary go-to tactics. 

Rule of thumb: When a MAGA thug tells you something is good, e.g., more transparency, a reasonable default reaction is to believe it is bad and a lie, with the opposite goal (more secrecy) most likely intended. Let's face it, MAGA is going to lie to us over and over and over.

Lutnick

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Here's part of an open letter by the American Bar Association about how it sees the actions of djt and MAGA in terms of the rule of law, separation of powers and the role of the courts:

The ABA rejects efforts to undermine the courts and the legal profession

(well, duh!)

Three weeks ago, the American Bar Association spoke to you about values that guide us. We called upon every lawyer to insist that the government adhere to four major principles of law that have guided our country for over 200 years: Defending Judges and Courts, Acknowledging the Role of the Courts, Adhering to the Rule of Law, and Respecting the Separation of Powers and the three co-equal branches of government with distinct duties and responsibilities. These principles have been bedrocks of American democracy. The ABA does not shrink from standing in support of each of them.

Since that time, government actions evidence a clear and disconcerting pattern. If a court issues a decision this administration does not agree with, the judge is targeted. If a lawyer represents parties in a dispute with the administration, or if a lawyer represents parties the administration does not like, lawyers are targeted. We issued statements standing up for these four key principles, and a government official targeted us by instructing some of its lawyers not to attend ABA meetings or participate as speakers. These actions highlight escalating governmental efforts to interfere with fair and impartial courts, the right to counsel and due process, and the freedoms of speech and association in our country.

High-ranking government officials (appointed and elected) have made repeated calls for the impeachment of judges who issue opinions with which the government does not agree. There have been calls to impeach “corrupt judges” with no effort to produce evidence of the so called “corruption.” These have been directed only at judges who have ruled against the government position.

There have now been statements by officials criticizing judges for not following the will of the people. Judges swear oaths to follow the law, not public opinion polling or political chatter or what someone contends is the will of the people. (emphasis added)

An important point that MAGA demagoguery has successfully been poisoning the American public with is the distinction between duty to the rule of law and duty to the will of the people. In my opinion, when laws are made in good faith and in accord with existing law, the rule of law reflects the will of the people. When laws are made in bad faith, as is now the norm for djt and MAGA, I see it as anti-democratic. That is the case even if new MAGA laws are in the scope of existing law. I consider manipulation of public perceptions and laws by elites using MAGA demagoguery against us to be more authoritarian than democratic. 

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I didn't listen to any of djt's SOTU speech. The reporting about it was what I expected, lots of lies, slanders and divisiveness, not much substance. The Dems seemed to be in disarray, also as I expected. 

Intention economy update: Agentic search capability is on the horizon

This morning when I fired up my AI for the first search du jour, a Perplexity ad was there. It offered to put people on the wait list to get access to Comet, an agentic search platform. It sounded juicy, so I put my email on the list.

I'm gonna get whacked by a Comet! 

What is agentic searching? I had no idea. Never heard of it until about an hour ago. Perplexity describes it like this:

Agentic search is an advanced form of artificial intelligence that goes beyond traditional keyword-based search engines to provide more personalized, context-aware, and action-oriented results. It utilizes AI agents capable of understanding user intent, analyzing multiple sources, and performing complex tasks autonomously 1 3 5. (emphasis added)

AI agents can interpret and refine ambiguous queries by considering user context, search history, and intent 5. Agents can access and synthesize information from various sources, including vector databases, web searches, APIs, and specialized tools 4. The system analyzes user preferences, past behavior, and current context to tailor search results 3. Agentic search can break down complex queries, validate information across sources, and provide comprehensive answers 2.

Agentic search represents a significant evolution in information retrieval, offering users more accurate, relevant, and actionable results while reducing the time and effort required to find and process information 7. As this technology continues to develop, it has the potential to reshape how users interact with search engines and access information online 8.

I interpret this as a major step toward building infrastructure needed for implementing the intention economy. The goal is commercial-economic. Comet has some agency, unlike current AI. It can book reservations, pay bills and suggest restaurants and entertainment possibilities. Comet is aimed at displacing the currently dominant intention economy. Unless I misunderstand this[1], Comet is a major step toward unleashing a semi-autonomous AI agent to learn how read a person's intentions and, more creepily, how to implant desires, especially money spending desires into people. 

I wrote about the intention economy last January in a world-class blog post entitled The intention economy: Subtly, quietly replacing your motives with their motives:

Long story short: Artificial intelligence gives the opportunists a way to discover and manipulate your intentions and motives to do or not do something, e.g., to buy or not buy a product or to vote for or against a political candidate.

There's a Coment coming and 

it's definitely gonna hit Earth!

(Safety tip: buy an umbrella to protect yourself and your loved ones)

Qs: 

1. Has Germaine gone off his rocker and mental meds to let Comet into his brain-mind to rummage around and tinker with it? 

2. Is Germaine insanely hubristic and/or stupid to think that the intention economy technology will not be subtle or powerful enough to get, i.e., trick, the poor boob to (i) buy another Tesla, (ii) vote for a 3rd term for djt in 2028, while (iii) buying tickets for a well-deserved vacation in Sunny Moscow, Russia in January? 

(Frozen nuts alert!!)

An observation about defenses against dark free speech: For years I've been harping on an urgent need for mandatory public education in defenses against the dark arts (demagoguery, propaganda, lies, slanders, crackpot conspiracy theories, etc.). All Americans now require more education in critical thinking skills, rhetoric, self-awareness, and a reasonable understanding of the importance of unconscious bias and the power of social context. IMFO, (in my firm opinion) the coming of intention economy technology makes tghe public's lack of mental self-defenses even more urgent and important. This is a whole new front in the endless war for minds and dollars. I doubt that more than ~5% of the American people ever heard of the intention economy, and even fewer understand it to see what it is designed to do.

Footnote:

1. Perplexity was creepily cagey and understated about the role of Comet in transitioning our brain-minds from the attention economy to the intention economy.

Q: Is Comet part of the intention economy, presumably intended to surpass and displace the attention economy?

A: Comet, the AI-powered browser being developed by Perplexity, appears to be aligned with the concept of the intention economy, but it's not yet clear if it will fully realize this vision or successfully displace the attention economy. [Appears to be aligned with?? Ahhh!, understatement alert!!!]

The intention economy, as originally conceived, aims to empower consumers and create more genuine relationships between customers and vendors 1 5. While Comet may contribute to this vision, there are also concerns about a potentially problematic version of the intention economy:

Data commodification: Some researchers warn of a marketplace for behavioral and psychological data that signals intent, which could be used for hyper-personalized manipulation 5 6.

AI-driven persuasion: There are concerns about AI assistants that could forecast and influence decision-making at an early stage, potentially selling these developing "intentions" to companies 5.

Ukraine war update: Modern drone warfare

Ukrainian drone operator

“When a tank appears it’s like dropping a plate of food

in front of a table of hungry drone operators”

Putin's unjustifiable war against the Ukraine has taken what appears to be a very dark turn. The NYT reports (not paywalled) that about 70% of injuries and deaths are inflicted by drones:

Left: remote controlled machine gun drone kills on the ground

Right: drone kills from the air by dropping molten metal on people

When a mortar round exploded on top of their American-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, the Ukrainian soldiers inside were shaken but not terribly worried, having been hardened by artillery shelling over three years of war.

But then the small drones started to swarm.

They targeted the weakest points of the armored Bradley with a deadly precision that mortar fire doesn’t possess. One of the explosive drones struck the hatch right above where the commander was sitting.

“It tore my arm off,” recounted Jr. Sgt. Taras, the 31-year-old commander who, like others, used his first name in accordance with Ukrainian military protocols.

Scrambling for a tourniquet, Sergeant Taras saw that the team’s driver had also been hit, his eye blasted from its socket.

The two soldiers survived. But the attack showed how an ever-evolving constellation of drones — largely off-the-shelf technologies that are being turned into killing machines at breakneck speed — made the third year of war in Ukraine deadlier than the first two years combined, according to Western estimates. 

Dropping molten metal on Russian troops

The article points out that war has killed and wounded more than a million soldiers, according to current estimates. Drones now kill more soldiers and destroy more armored vehicles in Ukraine than all traditional weapons of war combined. Nineteen of the 31 sophisticated Abrams tanks that the United States sent to Ukraine in 2023 have been destroyed, disabled or captured. Many of those were disabled by drones. Nearly all of the others have been taken off the front lines because they are big sitting ducks for drone swarms.

Drones armed with shotguns are now shooting at enemy drones. Antiaircraft drones are attacking surveillance drones that fly higher in the sky to monitor troop and weapon movements. To increase the distance they can fly and kill, larger drones serve as motherships for swarms of small drones.

Ukrainian FPV drone operator

Open ground has turned into a killing zone for both Ukrainian and Russian troops. Soldiers have only speed for protection. They use quadbikes and motorcycles to outrun the reaction time of FPV (First Person View) drone operators. It is often impossible to move, but staying in one place is also dangerous. Fortified trench systems are obvious targets. Armored vehicles have been virtually neutralized. Drones that cost a couple of hundred dollars to make and arm can destroy vehicles and weapons costing tens of millions. 

Drones are now being deployed that cannot be radio jammed. They operate by trailing a thin fiber optic cable that is directly connected to the drone operator's screens.

Center & left: fiber optic lines left by drones

Right: Russian drone spinning out fiber cable

Ukrainian soldiers assembling FPV drones 

in a destroyed house near the front lines

Ukrainian drone destroys a tank

Other articles for this post are here and here.

It is hard to imagine the unwarranted hell the Ukrainian people are suffering. And it is all because of Putin's monstrous ego. For djt and MAGA to back away and leave the Ukraine to Putin's tender mercies is literally evil, a ghastly moral stain and a deep betrayal of democracy and the American people.

About egg prices: Price gouging? It's djt's fault

An AP article raised the issue of egg price gouging, Are egg producers inflating prices during the bird flu outbreak to boost profits? The AP article comments that, not surprisingly, egg producers blame the bird flu outbreak for driving prices to record highs. Most experts, whoever they may be, agree that bird flu mostly drives prices. However, some people believe that a few major suppliers are taking advantage of their market dominance to gouge.  

An expert critic, Angela Huffman, commented “dominant egg corporations are blaming avian flu for the price hikes that we’re seeing. But while the egg supply has fallen only slightly, these companies profits have soared.” In addition, there is past bad egg producer behavior. In 2023, a jury found that major egg producers used various means to limit the domestic supply of eggs to increase the price during the 2000s. 

Also, profits have greatly surpassed egg production costs. For example, Cal-Maine Foods reported a profit of $219 million in the latest quarter, with eggs averaging $2.74 per dozen. That is a more than a 100-fold increase from $1.2 million in the quarter before the outbreak when eggs were $1.37 per dozen.

Finally, some consumer advocates found "no evidence of aggressive price competition among the largest egg producers over the past year," suggesting that as Cal-Maine and other 'bellwether' companies raised prices, it provided an "invitation for rival egg producers to tacitly collude with Cal-Maine, forego price competition themselves, and maintain high prices for the entire industry."

Given the intense hostility of djt and MAGA elites toward regulations, one can reasonably believe that corporate collusion everywhere will be on the rise. As the federal government backs away from consumer, worker and environmental protections, most of the released power will flow to special interests who will get increased profit from de-regulation. Collusion and price gouging will become normalized and accepted as business as usual.

How likely is egg price gouging right now? Very likely. It's just free markets doing what free markets naturally want to do. And it's djt's fault for letting it happen. Of course, that should be no surprise to anyone paying attention and not trapped in MAGA's fantasy and illusion propaganda.