A Nobel Peace Prize primer

In response to the Gaza ceasefire, two NYT columnists Tom Friedman and Brett Stephens said that Trump deserved a Nobel Peace Prize. Friedman and Stephens don't know what they are talking about. Their ignorance probably indicates that neither of them and most of the public do not understand the basic criteria for awarding a Nobel Prize. A Nobel primer is in order.

Alfred Nobel's 1895 will says that the Peace Prize should be awarded to people who have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses. The will also specifies prizes for physics, chemistry, medicine and literature. The Nobel committee receives ~200 nominations annually, eventually narrowing them to a shortlist of 20-30 candidates for detailed review. The Latin inscription on the Peace Prize medal reads "Pro pace et fraternitate gentium" (For peace and fraternity among peoples).

Evaluation criteria for the prize have evolved to be (1) the durability of peace initiatives rather than temporary ceasefires, (2) ​the candidate's promotion of international fraternity and cooperation​ (fostering brotherhood, fellowship, and cooperative relationships between nations not antagonistic, competitive, or hostile relations), (3) consideration of the candidate's moral character and symbolic value as representatives of goodwill, (4) consideration of the candidate's ​humanitarian work and human rights advocacy, and (5) ​consideration of the candidate's institutional strengthening of peace-building mechanisms.​ The committee explicitly acknowledges that they consider past achievements and the potential positive effects of recognition. 

So, how does Trump stack up? He might qualify on the durability criteria. He is thoroughly disqualified on criteria 2-4. For international relations, he engaged in systematic destruction of alliances. He (i) withdrew the US from multilateral agreements including the Paris Climate Accord, the Iran Nuclear Deal, and the WHO during the COVID pandemic, and (ii) he was hostile with allies, openly attacking NATO allies, European Union partners, and international democratic institutions.

On criteria 3, moral character and symbolic value as a representative of goodwill, Trump is fairly close to Darth Vader, Hitler and other famous immoral/evil characters and vicious representatives of ill will. His corruption and self-enrichment are blatant. That includes extensive use of his position and power for personal financial benefit​, and violation of democratic norms in his 1/6 coup attempt. On this section to the quiz, he gets a well-deserved grade of F-.

His qualifications for criteria 4, consideration of the candidate's ​humanitarian work and human rights advocacy, screams for itself. His "accomplishments" include fighting hard for healthcare access restrictions in the US by trying to eliminate healthcare coverage for millions through ACA repeal efforts. He was also brilliant in shafting the Palestinians by cutting all humanitarian aid to Palestinians and closing diplomatic missions. F-- here for sure. Just being fair and balanced.

Finally, regarding on strengthening peace-building mechanisms Trump is a real champ. He withdrew from international treaties and abandoned multiple peace and security agreements that took decades to negotiate. He also ​vehemently systematically attacked judicial independence and undermined court authority through defiance, delegitimization, threats, lies and slanders. He also engaged in vigorous dismantling of diplomatic institutions. In particular he gutted State Department capacity and eliminated diplomatic positions.​ But not content to stop with just those fine achievements, he did his best to destroy election integrity by attacking electoral institutions and peaceful power transfer norms. Another well-deserved F--.

There's lots more​ one could add to his toxic qualifications, but hopefully that conveys just a little glimpse of what a wonderful guy he is. 

Q: Does Trump deserve a Nobel Peace prize?

The necessary role of demagoguery/dark free speech in the rise of dictatorship

This is a companion this post, The role of ignorance in the rise of dictatorship. The entire Q&A series is at this link.  

Pxy analyzes the power of dark free speech like this.

Q3: Is demagoguery or dark free speech the single most potent and effective weapon that Trump and elite MAGA authoritarians have used in their rise to power and their ability to severely damage our democracy, rule of law and civil liberties? If another authoritarian weapon is more potent, what is it?

A3: The evidence strongly suggests that executive aggrandizement—not demagoguery alone—represents the single most potent and effective weapon that Trump and MAGA authoritarians have employed in their assault on American democracy.

That answer feels mostly wrong, but maybe it is mostly right.

Q4: Would executive aggrandizement without demagoguery have led to the current situation of institutional capture, decades of voter deceit and the attendant flow of power to authoritarian American politicians and federal judges? It is a chicken and egg question I think.

A4: The Symbiotic Relationship: Why Both Are Essential

The research reveals that successful authoritarian consolidation requires what scholars describe as a "dual track" approach that combines institutional manipulation with mass mobilization—and both tracks depend fundamentally on demagoguery to achieve legitimacy and popular support.

.... analysis ....

The evidence strongly suggests that executive aggrandizement without demagoguery would not have achieved the current scale of institutional capture and voter mobilization that has characterized the Trump-MAGA movement.

Q5: So, is your initial assessment that executive aggrandizement is the primary authoritarian weapon mostly right or wrong, or is it ambiguous?

A5: The Corrected Assessment: Demagoguery as the Foundation

The research reveals that demagoguery should be considered the primary authoritarian weapon, not executive aggrandizement. Here's why: 

Causal Priority vs. Ultimate Impact
My initial analysis conflated "most damaging in the long term" with "most essential for success." While executive aggrandizement creates more durable institutional damage, demagoguery is causally prior and necessary for institutional capture to succeed in democratic systems.

The Evidence for Revision
Enablement Relationship: The research clearly shows that institutional capture requires the legitimacy, popular mobilization, and elite coordination that only effective propaganda can provide. Without demagoguery:

• Institutional capture attempts face systematic democratic resistance

• Elite actors lack justification for abandoning democratic norms

• Popular support necessary for sustained power erodes

• Constitutional and legal constraints remain effective

Historical Precedent: Failed authoritarian attempts consistently involve leaders who pursued institutional control without adequate mass appeal or legitimizing narratives. Successful consolidation universally combines both elements, but with propaganda creating the permissive conditions first.

Final Assessment: My initial analysis was substantively wrong about causal priority. While executive aggrandizement creates more lasting damage, demagoguery is the primary weapon that makes institutional capture possible in the first place. The relationship is not ambiguous—demagoguery enables institutional capture, not the reverse.

Now that feels logically sound. Pxy initially goofed by focusing on effect before considering the role of cause. 

The role of ignorance in the rise of dictatorship

Ignorance is major weapon that MAGA elites use against us and our democracy, rule of law, civil liberties, wealth and power. American voter ignorance appears to be mostly due to intentional dark free speech or demagoguery. Polling about CN (Christian nationalism) provides some data to clarify the matter. As pointed out here multiple times, the CN is a political wealth and power movement hiding in Christian dogma. The elites are theocratic and ruthlessly building federal infrastructure to establish an aggressive, bigoted Christian fundamentalist theocracy for the US after Trump is out of power. None of that is new or a secret. Despite the grave threat of CN, most Americans remain ignorant about it, many in denial.

The following AI analysis is focused on the matter.

Q: About what % of Trump voters are knowing Christian nationalist supporters and what % are his voters without understanding that American Christian nationalism is actually theocratic and rigidly fundamentalist?

A: The relationship between Trump voters and Christian nationalism reveals a complex dynamic where support exists on multiple levels of awareness and understanding, making it difficult to precisely quantify "knowing" versus "unknowing" supporters.

Quantifying Christian Nationalism Support Among Trump Voters
According to the Public Religion Research Institute's (PRRI) comprehensive 2024 American Values Atlas based on over 22,000 adults, approximately 53% of Republicans qualify as Christian nationalism Adherents (20%) or Sympathizers (33%). Given Trump's overwhelming Republican support, this suggests that roughly half of Trump voters hold Christian nationalist views to varying degrees.

The Awareness Gap: Understanding vs. Support
Research indicates a significant disconnect between support for Christian nationalist policies and understanding of the term itself:

• Limited Familiarity with the Term: More than one-third of Americans (35%) report they have never heard the term "Christian nationalism". Among those who have heard it, Americans are more than twice as likely to hold unfavorable views (44%) compared to favorable views (20%).​

• Policy Support Despite Terminology Rejection: Critically, research by Paul Djupe found that over 40% of Americans agreed that "Christian nationalism" was just "a term invented by the left to smear conservative Christians." Yet among those who dismissed it as a smear tactic, 68% simultaneously agreed that "Christian nationalism is the only idea that will save this fallen nation".

Distinguishing Christian Values from Theocratic Control
The data suggests many Trump voters support Christian influence in government without fully grasping the theocratic implications:

Broad Support for Christian Influence: Pew Research found that 45% of Americans believe the U.S. should be a "Christian nation", and about half think the Bible should have at least some influence on U.S. laws. However, this doesn't necessarily translate to support for theocracy.​

Rejection of Explicit Theocratic Measures: Even among white evangelical Protestants—the most supportive group—fewer than half support abandoning church-state separation (34%) or declaring the country officially Christian (35%). Among Republicans generally, 58% still say the government should never declare an official religion.

​
Educational and Demographic Factors
The research reveals that Christian nationalism support correlates with lower educational attainment and is "especially influential in states with greater working-class populations". This suggests that some support may stem from limited exposure to detailed discussions about the implications of theocratic governance.

Media Consumption Patterns: Two-thirds of Americans who most trust far-right media sources qualify as Christian nationalism Adherents or Sympathizers, compared to just one-quarter who don't watch TV news or trust mainstream sources. This indicates information silos may contribute to uninformed support.​

Estimated Breakdown of Trump Voter Categories

Based on the available data, a reasonable estimate of Trump voters would be:

• Approximately 15-20% are "knowing" Christian nationalist supporters who understand and explicitly support theocratic governance

• Approximately 30-35% support Christian nationalist policies without fully understanding the theocratic implications

• The remaining 45-55% support Trump for other reasons (economic, cultural, anti-establishment sentiment, etc.)

The Complexity of "Understanding"
The research reveals that many Americans hold seemingly contradictory views—supporting Christian influence in government while maintaining support for church-state separation. This suggests that the distinction between "knowing" and "unknowing" support isn't binary but exists on a spectrum of political and theological sophistication.

Core Finding: The data indicates that while roughly half of Trump voters express support for Christian nationalist ideas, the majority of this support appears to be based on an incomplete understanding of what full implementation would entail. Many supporters envision greater Christian cultural influence rather than the "close fusion of a particular expression of Christianity with social and political life" that scholars define as Christian nationalism.

This analysis indicates that Trump's coalition includes both committed theocrats and voters who support certain Christian nationalist policies without fully comprehending their anti-democratic implications—a distinction that has significant ramifications for both democratic institutions and political strategy.

If the following AI analysis is reasonably accurate, most of the ignorance is intentional from dark free speech. 

Q2: Decades of demagoguery by MAGA, MAGA predecessors and now Trump have significantly deceived and disinformed most rank and file MAGA supporters and Trump voters. Based on available data, about what % of the deceit and disinformation is attributable to knowing demagoguery or dark free speech?

A2: Quantifying Deliberate vs. Organic Disinformation

Research suggests that approximately 70-85% of Trump and MAGA-related disinformation appears to be intentional or strategically coordinated, while the remainder stems from organic belief-driven sharing without deliberate deceptive intent.

Evidence for Intentional Deception
Linguistic Analysis of Trump's False Claims: A comprehensive study by van der Zee and colleagues analyzed thousands of Trump's tweets using regression modeling designed to detect deceptive intent. Their findings showed "significant evidence of intent to deceive" underlying most of Trump's false claims, concluding that "intent to deceive is a reasonable inference from most of Trump's false tweets". The study found predictable linguistic patterns that distinguished Trump's lies from truthful statements, indicating systematic rather than accidental falsehoods.​

Strategic Use of "Common Knowledge" Lies: Research by Hahl, Kim, and Zuckerman identified Trump's use of "common-knowledge lies"—falsehoods so obvious they function as "flagrant violations of the norm of truth-telling". These aren't errors but deliberate signals to supporters that conventional norms don't apply. The authors found this represents a conscious strategy where "lying demagoguery can be perceived as bravely speaking a deep and otherwise suppressed truth".​

Coordinated Elite-Level Misinformation: A Nature Human Behavior study analyzing 3.8 million congressional tweets from 2011-2022 found systematic differences in how Republican politicians communicate. Republican members of Congress showed "clear correlation between the language pattern of belief-speaking and the linking of poorly rated sources". Critically, this pattern intensified after Trump's 2016 victory, suggesting coordinated adoption of his communication strategies.

.... more analysis .... 

Asymmetric Information Warfare
Documented Asymmetry: Research consistently finds asymmetric patterns in misinformation between political sides. The Nature study noted that "Republican politicians frequently, although not always, share low-quality information and are thus providing a cue to their partisan followers of the legitimacy of those outlets". Democratic politicians showed no correlation between belief-speaking and low-quality sources.

Testing Loyalty Through Falsehoods: Research on authoritarian regimes shows that obvious lies serve to test subordinate loyalty. James Pfiffner's analysis noted that Trump's lies "can be used to test the loyalty of subordinates or to demonstrate power". This represents conscious use of falsehoods for political control.

Analytical Conclusion
The evidence strongly suggests that the majority of MAGA and Trump-related disinformation originates from deliberate strategic communication rather than organic misinformation. The coordinated nature of false claim propagation, linguistic evidence of deceptive intent, and systematic patterns matching authoritarian propaganda techniques indicate approximately 70-85% of the disinformation represents knowing demagoguery or "dark free speech."

The remaining 15-30% likely represents organic transmission by believers who have been successfully deceived by the initial strategic campaigns, creating a cascade effect where genuine belief amplifies originally deceptive content. This creates a hybrid information environment where strategic deception exploits cognitive vulnerabilities to achieve viral organic spread among target audiences.

The whole Q&A series is at this link.

Re: MAGA's seething hate of LGBQT people

Introduction

MAGA is not shy about showing hate toward LGBQT+ people. Its enraged, hateful bigotry is right out in the open. It is reasonable, fair and balanced to accord ~95% of blame for bad government policies that target, oppress and discriminate against the community to MAGA. Specifically, sanctimonious CN (Christian nationalist) bigotry and its cruel, dogmatic authoritarian intolerance. 

But is it rational and fair to tar all of MAGA with CN's cruelty, immorality and evil? Absolutely. America's corrupt MAGA wealth and power political movement actively embraces and supports CN politics, policy and hate. We don't hear Trump or elite MAGA oligarchs complaining about the CN bigotry, cruelty or anything else immoral that oozes from America's corrupt CN wealth and power political movement. 

Yes, CN is a corrupt political wealth and power movement, not any kind of a Christian movement. The latter is a point that has been made here before -- in multiple posts. Experts see the CN movement as authoritarianism disguised as a toxic form of bigoted, theocratic Christianity. Christianity is the fig left that CN elites use to bamboozle the rank & file. CN elites hide the authoritarianism and corruption that truly drives the CN movement.

CN hate embodied in federal policy

A law firm that specializes in business immigration and customs law, Greenberg Traurig (GT), reported that on Oct. 14, 2025 the CPB (US Customs and Border Protection agency) will start accepting only “M” (Male) or “F” (Female) in the sex field of information transfer to APIS (Advance Passenger Information System). Any other designation results in an “X Response-Insufficient Information” error, requiring airlines to resubmit the passenger data with corrected information.

GT noted that these changes were implemented in response to Trump's January 2025 Executive Order 14168, Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government. That EO imposed enhanced validation requirements for passenger data submitted by commercial air carriers. 

As usual, MAGA tyranny is always sold as something good and other than what it actually, when it is in fact bad and something else. In this case, an honest title for Trump's EO is something like this:

Distorting Gender Reality and Imposing Biological 

Falsity on Innocent LGBQT Americans

 

Among the centimillionaires and billionaires who support Trump and MAGA, some will be LGBQT Americans. One has to wonder what they are thinking. My guess is that by far, the most likely thinking is that by sticking with Trump's and MAGA's kleptocratic dictatorship, there will probably be even more wealth and power for them than they already have. 

Q: How likely is it that most centimillionaires and billionaires who support MAGA's kleptocratic dictatorship are loyal because of the prospect of getting even more wealth and power?

(about 95% likely in my opinion)