HOW TO WIN AN ARGUMENT WITH YOUR LIBERAL RELATIVES

https://www.snowflakevictory.com/

Conservative Anti-Government Deregulation Marches On: Bird Deaths Increase

A sad story from the New York Times reports that a regulatory change, a “regulation reinterpretation”, guts reporting requirements and penalties for bird kills arising from various development and business activities. The new rule eliminate criminal penalties for “incidental” migratory bird deaths from normal business. Mandatory reporting of bird deaths is now “purely voluntary” and fines for bird kills are eliminated.

Under the Trump administration’s 2017 reinterpretation of the Migratory Bird Treaty Act, companies are not subject to prosecution or fines, even after a disaster like the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010 that killed or injured about one million birds. BP paid $100 million in fines for that avoidable but catastrophic company mistake. Similarly, the state of Virginia was going to build an artificial island for birds to nest on to compensate for loss of nesting habitat from a bridge and tunnel expansion in Chesapeake Bay tidewaters. After learning of the new interpretation of the law, Virginia abandoned the island and the habitat loss will not be compensated.

What an oil spill does to birds

The Virginia island story is just one of dozens of bird-preservation projects that are terminated after the 2017 policy change. In its standard public deceit mode, the Trump administration lied by called the change in the century-old law protecting migratory birds a technical clarification.

But, the situation is worse than even that. The NYT writes:

Across the country birds have been killed and nests destroyed by oil spills, construction crews and chemical contamination, all with no response from the federal government, according to emails, memos and other documents viewed by The New York Times. Not only has the administration stopped investigating most bird deaths, the documents show, it has discouraged local governments and businesses from taking precautionary measures to protect birds. In one instance, a Wyoming-based oil company wanted to clarify that it no longer had to report bird deaths to the Fish and Wildlife Service. “You are correct,” the agency replied. (emphasis added)

That is the face of deceitful conservative-populist anti-government, anti-environment ideology and rule. Trump ideology isn’t just neutral to the environment, it is actively hostile.

The US Fish and Wildlife Service claims that the Trump administration will “will continue to work cooperatively with our industry partners to minimize impacts on migratory birds.” Unfortunately, documents the NYT reviewed contradict that. A review of over 20 incidents found that short of literally going out to illegally shoot birds, activities where birds die merit no action. This is yet another of the endless Trump and his administration’s lies that they insult the American people with on a now daily basis.

For context, this summarizes the Trump administration’s work to deal with the environment as of June 2019.

The new interpretation is being challenged in court. If the case winds up before a Trump judge, it will probably be upheld. Otherwise, it is reasonable to think the new ‘interpretation’ will be overturned because it sounds more like the law is being illegally rewritten than merely reinterpreted. Time will tell how this plays out.

In the meantime, thousands or millions of birds will be mindlessly displaced or slaughtered in the name of Trump and his rigid ideological hate of environmental concerns. The companies and states that go along with this indefensible immorality reveal how their moral mindsets, or more accurately, lack thereof, work day-to-day.

If you like this, vote for Trump and republicans in 2020 or just stay home and don't vote at all. If you do not like this, vote for democrats in 2020. It’s your choice.

Chapter Review: Equality or Oligarchy (2016)

“Democracies die when people cease to believe that voting matters. .... The road to unfreedom is the passage from the politics of inevitability to the politics of eternity.” Timothy Snyder,  The Road to Unfreedom: Russia, Europe, America, Chapter 6, 2018

“There’s class warfare, all right, but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.” Warren Buffett, 2006



This is a review of Chapter 6, Equality or Oligarchy (2016), of Timothy Snyder’s 2018 book, The Road to Unfreedom: Russia, Europe, America. Snyder is a professor of history at Yale University and a Permanent Fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna. His specialty is the history of Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and the Holocaust. Snyder also wrote other books, including On Tyranny, about how democracies fall while tyrannies rise (my review is here). My review of the prologue of this book is here and a review of Chapter 1 is here.

The nonsense of inevitability politics vs. eternity politics

The politics of inevitability and eternity are described in detail in the book’s prologue as discussed here. Briefly, the politics of inevitability posits that over time political ideologies such as communism and capitalism will deliver social improvement and good things to societies and people. In that view, progress is inevitable and politically there is not much to be done other than defend the status quo and tweak things now and then while waiting for utopia to arrive on its own.

By contrast, the politics of eternity basically holds that social and individual progress are impossible and history repeats in cycles of threat to the nation followed by a period of relief. This view sees progress for society and people as a mirage and only a powerful leader (dictator) can save the nation from foreign enemies and evil forces such as globalism and international comity. Eternity regimes see concepts such as democracy, elections, objective facts and logic, and individualism as something that ranges from mere ritual (elections) to actual evil (individualism, facts and logic) working in opposition to the needs of the sacred, innocent nation. As described in chapter 1, that is the ideology and politics of Vladimir Putin, the Russian government and Russian kleptocratic oligarchs.

The sacred nation narrative is that the poor innocent state is only trying to defend itself from both internal and external threats that are always present. It needs to be stressed that objective facts and logic are bluntly denied to be real because the only things that are real in eternal politics is what the supreme dictator says is real and logical, even when that is clearly false or objectively flawed.

From an objective point of view, both inevitability and eternity politics are obvious nonsense. Those fictions work to serve narrow interests at the expense of the public interest por common good. History makes that crystal clear. Both tend to denigrate inconvenient facts and logic, with eternity politics being radically extreme in this regard. What Snyder does not describe is an alternative, maybe because he sees none or more likely because that wasn’t the point of his book. Regardless, the anti-ideology ideology advocated here, pragmatic rationalism, offers an anti-biasing, anti-authoritarian, pro-fact, -logic, -democracy and -rule of law alternative. But that’s a topic for a separate discussion.

Chapter 6

Snyder’s Chapter 6 is stuffed to the gills with facts and details that are heavily sourced. That allows for fact checking for whatever facts Snyder asserts but one wants to question or reject as lies. The chapter focuses on the rise of Donald Trump and how he relied on extensive Russian efforts to help him win the Electoral College in 2016.

The view from team Trump about Russia’s role is exemplified by comments that K. T. MacFarland, aide to Trump made after the election: “If there is a tit-for-tat escalation Trump will have difficulty improving relations with Russia, which has just thrown [the] U.S.A. election to him.” Clearly, at least some Trump aides believed Russia was the cause for Trump’s electoral college win. Not only did MacFarland believe Russia led Trump to win, she also resented, and saw as partisan political, Obama’s efforts to punish the Russians for attacking the US election, commenting that “Russia is [the] key that unlocks [the] door.”

Because there is far too much content in Chapter 6 to review in detail, the following will mention some of the more important context, facts and beliefs that Snyder articulates based on the evidence available to the public and his inferences therefrom. The value of this partial list of events is that it reminds us of who did what and why.

• Russian support for Trump, coerced or genuine, was widespread if not universal in the Russian government, among ruling elites and among Russian journalists. Dimitry Kiselev, a major Russian media influencer and Trump supporter asserted that “a new star is rising -- Trump!” In addition, Kiselev was happy that “the words ‘democracy’ and ‘human rights’ are in in the vocabulary of Trump.” Alexander Dugin, author of The Foundations of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical Future of Russia, a geopolitics book that has major influence on the Russian military, police, and foreign policy elites, posted a video entitled “In Trump We Trust” where he urged Americans to “vote for Trump!” Alexi Pushkov, Chair of the foreign relations committee of the Russian Parliament’s lower house expressed the hope that “Trump can lead the Western locomotive right off the rails.” Russian journalists were “given very clear instructions: to show Donald Trump in a positive way, and his opponent, Hillary Clinton, in a negative way.” There was no ambiguity about who the Russian government and elites supported and what they expected him to try to do to America if he gained power.

• In cyberwar, ‘attack surfaces’ are points in a computer program an attacker can access, allowing the attacker to come in contact with human minds. In 2105 and 2016, Russia used Facebook, Twitter, YouTube Instagram and other social media as places where high priority attack surfaces could be found. Such attacks do not necessarily rely on hacking, but instead can simply use and misuse social platforms as they wish. For example, just before the election, Facebook shut down 5.8 million fake political messaging accounts. Six of 470 known Russian fake Facebook accounts had accumulated billions of shares.

• Russian social media propaganda advertising was targeted, not random. In crucial states including Michigan and Wisconsin, Russian ads were targeted at people who would respond to anti-Muslim attacks, e.g., Muslims are terrorists, based on data showing that most members of target audience probably hated or feared Muslims. Regarding immigrants, Russian pro-Trump propaganda associated refugees with rapists. After the 2016 election, Twitter research found that about 50,000 Russian bots were active on its platform. Russian trolls who posed as black activists who portrayed Clinton as a racist reached hundreds of thousands of minds.

• On July, 22, 2016, which was just before the democratic convention, the Russians released about 22,000 stolen emails via Wikileaks. The emails were chosen to increase conflict and distrust between Clinton and Sanders supporters. The strategy worked. Trump supported and encouraged Russian hacking, e.g., by publicly asking the Russian government on June 17 to find and release emails related to Clinton. (My comment: A few hours after that June 17 public request, the Russian government started to hack the DNC and Clinton as Trump explicitly asked)

• On October 7, 2016 about 30 minutes after a Tape of Trump admitting his sexual assaults became public, the Russians released emails by Clinton’s campaign chairman, John Podesta. That release significantly blunted public discussion of Trump’s history of sexual predation. Shortly after this episode, Russian trolls and bots began spreading false stories about democratic Satanic practices and a pedophile child trafficking ring run by Clinton that operated out of the basement of a pizza parlor, i.e., the Pizzagate fabrication. (My comments: To a large extent, the press was fooled and unduly distracted by the timing of the Podesta email release. That failure gave many sympathetic people a basis in Russian fiction to see Trump as innocent instead of the sexual predator that he in fact really is.) 

•  The American people shared responsibility for the success of Russian lies and emotional manipulation. Many Americans responded with anger, incivility and sometimes actual threats of violence. Russians also exploited the gullibility of many Americans. Snyder wrote: “Those who chose to call and threaten were in the avant-garde of American totalitarianism. .... Americans trusted Russians and robots who told them what they wanted to hear.” For example, the vulgar Russian Facebook page ‘Heart of Texas’ was clearly written by non-native English speakers and advocated Texas secession. Separatism was and still is in line with standard Russian foreign policy to advocate separatism and the break up of all countries except Russia itself. Russian separatism policy supported and propagandized for Brexit, Catalonian independence, succession of the entire US South and Alaska from the Union, and the Donbas from Ukraine. Heart of Texas had more followers than the Texas democratic and republican parties combined. (My comment: Successful Russian manipulation of the American people included fomenting unwarranted anger, fear, bigotry, outrage, and distrust in democracy, the press, truth, elections and fellow citizens.)

• Professional American media and press and economic conditions shared responsibility for the success of Russian lies and emotional manipulation. Economic factors seriously weakened the media and press. In 2009, about 70 jobs per day were lost at newspapers and magazines, leading to the near total collapse of the local press. The rise of infotainment (and, IMHO, its attendant capitalist immorality) in place of news in the public interest led the press-media to give Trump far more air time and ink than Clinton or other candidates got. Trump’s antics and divisive, deceitful rhetoric were far too entertaining to pass up. That amounted to the professional US press-media giving Trump massive amounts of free advertising. The CEO of CBS commented that the Trump campaign “may not be good for America, but it’s damn good for CBS.” (My comments: Corporate ownership of media also significantly weakens press and media independence. Propaganda outlets such as Breitbart and Fox News continued their years-long propaganda efforts, enthusiastically adopting Russian lies and spreading them, thereby laundering anti-democratic propaganda into something legitimate in susceptible minds.)

• The republican party shared responsibility for the success of Russian lies and emotional manipulation. Snyder writes: “As republicans realized that Russia was attacking the UNited States, the fury of partisanship became the desperation of denial and then the complicity of inaction. .... McConnell let it be known that republicans would treat the defense of the United States from Russian cyberwar as an effort to help Hillary Clinton. .... After categorized the Russian attack as politics, its scope expanded. .... Even as Kasich and Rubio took a stand on Russian foreign policy, the crucial republican legislators surrendered in advance to Russian cyberattack. .... That is how wars are lost.” (My comments: McConnell earned the moniker Moscow Mitch. Putin could not have asked for much more than to have the US Senate majority leader completely mischaracterize Russian attacks as mere politics. In addition to his self described role as the ‘Grim Reaper’ , he deserves the title Moscow Mitch for that bit of deeply damaging disinformation in the name immoral republican partisanship. McConnell’s treasonous action here arguably transcended mere constitutional rot and constituted an actual constitutional crisis.)

• Although Trump said his former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, was as ‘dumb as a rock’, Tillerson did a valuable service for the Russians. Before he left office, conducted a purge of a large group of diplomats that Putin considered to be enemies. By throwing the State Department into chaos, Tillerson significantly crippled American ability to project influence or moral values. Trump’s former national security advisor, Michael Flynn, illegally took money from foreign governments by not reporting it. Later, he lied to the FBI, falsely claiming he had no conversations with Russia’s ambassador. He was eventually convicted of a felony for that. Flynn’s other escapades included (i) anti-Semitic Tweets at Jews, “Not Anymore, Jews. Not anymore.” for claiming that the Russians had hacked emails of democratic activists, and (ii) followed and shared content from at least five fake Russian social media accounts. (My comment: If Flynn’s contacts with Russians were innocent, why lie about it? One logical answer is that the conversations were not innocent. Another is that Flynn was an incompetent idiot. Another is that he was both.)

• Steve Bannon replaced Paul Manafort as Trump’s campaign chairman. While at Breitbart, Bannon was instrumental in bringing white supremacists into mainstream political discourse. Bannon’s radial propaganda effort was funded by the billionaire Robert Mercer and members of his family. Bannon used some of that resource to experiment with mass public manipulation techniques, e.g., by testing audience responses to certain propaganda about Putin. In 2016, Mercer and Bannon’s company stole the Facebook data of about 50 million Americans and that was used to create tools to either increase or suppress voting by targeted audiences. A major goal was to suppress the African-American vote. Like most Russian practitioners of the politics of eternity, Bannon was hostile toward facts and he liked referring to the press as the “opposition party.” (My comment: The Mercer-Bannon effort to suppress Black voter turnout may have had a significant impact.)

• Unlike Paul Manafort and Steven Bannon who were linked to Russia by corrupt, authoritarian anti-democratic ideology, Jared Kushner was linked to Russia by ambition and  money. Kushner's links were best seen by situations where Kushner was silent. Like Trump himself, banks refused to loan money to Kushner’s father. The exception was the Russian money laundering machine, Deutsche Bank, which laundered billions for Russian oligarchs. A few weeks before the 2016 election, Deutsche Bank gave Kushner a $285 million loan. Although Kushner met with Russian officials, including the Russian ambassador Sergei Kislyak. Kushner's escapades included smuggling Kislyak into Trump Tower for the purpose of talks to set up a secret communications channel between Trump and Putin. (My comment: If Kushner’s meetings with Russians were innocent, why go up the freight elevator? One logical answer is that the meetings were not innocent. Another is that Kushner was an incompetent idiot. Another is that he was both.)

Chapter 6 goes on at length in this vein. That brief summary should convey a flavor of what the Russians, Trump, his campaign and the felons, liars and crooks he surrounded himself with were up to. What they were up to wasn’t anything good for the American people, democracy, the rule of law, or other decent moral values. It was all corrupt bad faith based on lies, deceit and emotional manipulation. Snyder constantly points out that even the character “Donald Trump, successful businessman” was a fiction that no one of any significance in Russia believed. The Russians knew full well that Trump was a failed businessman who was saved only by Russian money: “From a Russian perspective, Trump was a failure who was rescued and an asset to be used to wreak havoc in American reality.” Well, American reality really has been blown to smithereens. Snyder’s narrative indicates that the Russians got stupendous value for their stolen money.

Legitimate or not?

Being a data, evidence, truth and logic-driven beast, Snyder’s book raised my personal estimate of confidence that Russian attacks on the 2016 election were a necessary factor, but alone not sufficient, in Trump’s electoral college win. Before Snyder, my confidence level that Russia was necessary was about 80%. Now, it's about 95%. The reality can never be known with certainty, but the evidence supports a belief that Trump is truly an illegitimate president. Or, maybe fake president is a better label.

Chapter Review: Individualism or Totalitarianism (2011)

With law our land shall rise, but it will perish with lawlessness. Author unknown, Njáls Saga, a story of a ~60-year Icelandic blood feud, ~1280 AD

Freedom is fragile, and when demagogues speak, and others start following them, it is wise to pay attention. Jeffrey C. Isaac, professor of political science, Indiana University Bloomington, 2016

A man with a conviction is a hard man to change. Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point. .... But man’s resourcefulness goes beyond simply protecting a belief. Suppose that he is presented with evidence, unequivocal and undeniable evidence, that his belief is wrong: what will happen? The individual will frequently emerge, not only unshaken, but even more convinced of the truth of his beliefs than ever before. Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken, and Stanley Schacter, When Prophecy Fails: A Social & Psychological Study of a Modern Group that Predicted the Destruction of the World, 1957

The basis of almost every honest political disagreement is mostly or completely grounded in one or both of two essential ingredients, differences in perception of facts and differences in application of reasoning or logic to the facts. The basis of almost every dishonest political disagreement is at least significantly, probably usually mostly, grounded in assertions of dark free speech by at least one side among parties in disagreement. One major problem is that it is often hard or impossible to know when a person is being honest with themself and when they aren't. Unconscious biases and flawed logic are unconscious and so are the distortions and flaws they routinely inject into reality and reason. Dishonest disagreements can be either knowingly or unknowingly dishonest. The former are usually immoral and usually damaging to society, democracy and/or the rule of law. The latter are regrettable, but still damaging. Germaine, today



This is a review of Chapter 1 of Timothy Snyder’s 2018 book, The Road to Unfreedom: Russia, Europe, America. Snyder is a professor of history at Yale University and a Permanent Fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna. His specialty is the history of Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and the Holocaust. Snyder also wrote other books, including On Tyranny, about how democracies fall and tyrannies rise (my review is here). My review of the prologue of this book is here.

Chapter 1, Individualism or Totalitarianism (2011), is a detailed description of one of the major influences on the political-spiritual ideology that Vladimir Putin claims to rely on to describe Russia and the world. He justifies the things he does in the name of an ideology that Snyder calls Russian Christian fascism. According to Snyder, the source of Putin’s ideology is the Russian philosopher Ivan Ilyin (1883-1954). Until Putin latched onto his mystical religious-political ideology, Ilyin had been relegated to historically insignificant obscurity. Now, Ilyin’s writings are mandatory reading for all major Russian politicians, oligarchs and military leaders.

Ilyin was a Russian political and religious philosopher and a hard core ideologue. European fascism of the 1920s and 1930s shaped his thinking. The fascist mindset of the day was based on three core beliefs, violence should dominate facts, reason and laws, the nation's leader has a vital, deep mystical-religious connection to the nation and its people, and globalization is a dangerous conspiracy against the sacred nation, and not a mundane reality that needs to be rationally managed via international cooperation.

Ilyn started out as a bitter opponent of the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution. He was a counterrevolutionary who advocated violence against the revolution. He later formulated a Christian fascism ideology intended to defeat Bolshevism. Snyder writes of Ilyin’s rise to prominence and his role in modern events:

“After a new Russian Federation emerged from the defunct Soviet Union in 1991, Ilyin’s short book Our Tasks began to circulate in new Russian editions, his collected works were published, and his ideas gained powerful supporters. He had died forgotten in Switzerland; Putin organized a reburial in Moscow in 2005. .... By [2006] Putin was citing Ilyin in his annual presidential addresses to the general assembly to the Russian parliament. .... In the 2010s, Putin relied on Ilyin’s authority to explain why Russia had to undermine the European Union and invade Ukraine. .... The Russian political class followed Putin’s example. His master propagandist Vladislav Surkov adapted Ilyin’s ideas to the world of modern media. 

Ilyin was a politician of eternity. His thought held sway as the capitalist version of the politics of inevitability collapsed in the Russia of the 1990s and 2000s. As Russia became an organized kleptocracy in the 2010s, as domestic inequality reached stupefying proportions, Ilyin’s influence peaked. The Russian assault on the European Union and the United States revealed, by targeting them, certain political virtues that Ilyin ignored or despised: individualism, [democratic political] succession, integration, novelty, truth, equality.”

Ilyin’s ideology believes that individualism is evil and must be swallowed and subjugated in service to the mystical sanctity of the innocent but always besieged Russian nation. He also believed that God erred in creating a world of human with their facts, knowledge and passions, calling God's act “frenetic, committing error upon error,” and evidence that God had lost “his harmonious unity, logical reason, and organizational purpose.” For Ilyin, human facts and passions are senseless and impediments to attaining the ultimate goal. Snyder describes this as totalitarian, anti-individualism thinking:

“The vision was a totalitarian one. We should long for a condition in which we think and feel as one, which means not to think and feel at all. We must cease to exist as individual human beings. ‘Evil begins’, Ilyin wrote, ‘where the person begins. .... the empirical fragmentation of human existence is an incorrect, a transitory, and a metaphysically untrue condition of the world.’ .... To belong to a layer of society that offered to individuals social advancement was to be the worst kind of human being: ‘this estate constitutes the very lowest level of social existence.’”

That is at the core of Putin’s professed ideology. What that means for average Russians is not anything good. They are mere things to be used to serve the defense and goals of the sacred and innocent but besieged Russian nation, which just happens to include Ukraine. The siege of Russia includes siege by social progress and belief in individualism. What the sacred defense and goals demand of people is whatever Putin says is demanded. Chapter 1 continues in this incoherent, metaphysical vein.

In his thinking, Ilyin saw Russian people as obliged to be happy with a totalitarian political arrangement: “We will accept our freedom and our laws from the Russian patriot who leads Russia to salvation.” By ‘our freedom’, Ilyin refers to the freedom of the Russian people to serve the Russian patriot-savior, not to exercise their individual choice. The freedom is a mirage.

Ilyin’s ideology puts the middle class at the bottom of society in support of the righteousness of his fascist ideal of inequality. This bit of  ideology fits perfectly with Putin's kleptocracy mindset. It both precludes upward social and justifies oligarchy or rule according to what wealthy people want and Putin as Oligarch-in Chief allows. In this regard, Putin might be seen as not quite totalitarian, but that is negated by Putin’s willingness to strip wealth from any oligarch who crosses him or irritated him too much. In practice, Russia is a totalitarian police state, with oligarchs ruling only at the pleasure of the tyrant at the top.

What is going on here??

If one accepts Snyder’s vision of history and recent events as basically correct, Putin appears to be a brutal but modern totalitarian akin to a Hitler or a Stalin. In essence, Putin’s ideology has an obvious, venal goal. He is simply protecting his power and the kleptocracy he has built. He relentlessly uses his power to oppress the Russian people and to steal the nation’s wealth from them. It is hard to imagine Putin giving a fig about God’s alleged mistake in creating humans, knowledge or the human urge to procreate. When Putin oppresses his people and murders political opponents, he can cite Ilyin and claim he is Russia’s redeemer who is only asking the Russian people to make the “chivalrous sacrifice” of killing others in the name of the sacred nation.

The anti-fact, anti-rule of law aspects of Ilyin’s (and Putin’s) rancid ideology are important to keep in mind. When facts and laws do not matter or even exist in any meaningful sense, as Ilyin’s Russian Christian fascism posits, Russia’s leader incurs no moral or legal responsibility for whatever he does or doesn't do. Ilyin was clear about democracy and voting in secret. That allowed Russians to think of themselves as individuals with individual choice, which proves the evil character of a depraved world. Political parties and elections should only be rituals with no significant political importance.

Chapter Review: Prologue (2010)

This is a review of the prologue (13 pages) of Timothy Snyder’s 2018 book, The Road to Unfreedom: Russia, Europe, America. Snyder is a professor of history at Yale University and a Permanent Fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna. His specialty is the history of Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and the Holocaust. Snyder also wrote other books, including On Tyranny, about how democracies fall and tyrannies rise (my review is here). He is a highly regarded historian.

In essence, Snyder’s book is an urgent warning about the power of dark free speech[1] or propaganda and the terrible corrosive power that undermining trust and institutions, e.g., the rule of law and a free press-media, can have on democracies and the rule of law. In a broader context, what is described is an ongoing, deadly serious global war between democracy, truth and the rule of law vs. tyranny, dark free speech and corruption. Snyder makes it crystal clear where our president stands in this war.

Inevitability vs eternity political ideologies

A theme that runs through Snyder’s book is two different conceptions of how politics plays out over time. He calls them inevitability and eternity. The inevitability politics mindset holds that society is moving toward a fixed, stable end situation. For Marxists, the final state of social evolution is a classless, governmentless communist utopia. For capitalists it is the final triumph of a free market utopia. From a point of view grounded in history, philosophy and cognitive and social science, the Marxist and capitalist ideals are unattainable nonsense. Utopias are not possible, only aspirational ideals. They are rigid ideological mirages that wind up serving narrow interests, not the public or human interests.

On the other hand, the eternity politics mindset posits that history progresses in more or less static cycles of threat, conflict and rebirth of the nation followed by a temporary calm before the next spasm of violence and rebirth. The eternity mindset creates foreign enemies when domestic threats have been subdued. Technology advances, but society is stuck in the hate, violence, destruction and rebirth cycle inherent in the human condition. This vision of reality is more plausible than the inevitability ideology, but not necessarily true. Human societies have advanced over the millennia. They are not static, at least not yet. What isn’t knowable now is just how far human society as a whole can advance. Also unknowable is, if there is a social plateau and stasis, what that world would look like.

Inevitability politics promises a better future for everyone, while eternity politics promises endless cycles of conflict. Snyder argues that inevitability tends to collapse into eternity politics, which envisions an innocent, righteous nation at the center of endless cycles of victimhood.

Snyder takes a very dim view of both ideological mindsets based on history, including events as recent as 2018. Both narratives foment and lead to intolerance of enemies, real or fake. They also tend to rely on religious religious iconography to help draw the true believers in. These narratives create out-groups or enemies from people who questioning the narrative’s supposed truth. People who dissent from the narratives are generally not tolerated. Snyder comments on eternity:

“Eternity politicians spread the conviction that government cannot aid society as a whole, but can only guard against threats. Progress gives way to doom. In power, eternity politicians manufacture crisis and manipulate the resultant emotion. .... Using technology to transmit political fiction, both at home and abroad, eternity politicians deny truth and seek to reduce life to spectacle and feeling.”

In essence, eternity drowns the future in cycles of present emotional whiplash grounded in fear, intolerance and outrage, followed by elation. Inevitability doesn't fare any better:

“[Inevitability politics is based on] a sense that the future is just more of the present, that the laws of progress are known, that there are no alternatives, and therefore nothing really to be done. In the American capitalist version of this story, nature brought the market, which brought democracy, which brought happiness. .... Before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, communism had its own politics of inevitability: nature permits technology; technology brings social change; social change causes revolution; revolution enacts utopia. .... American politics of inevitability, like all such stories, resisted facts.”[2]

Snyder makes a prediction and gives his basis in facts and logic for it:

“What has already happened in Russia is what might happen in America and Europe: the stabilization of massive inequality, the displacement of policy by propaganda, the shift of politics of inevitability to the politics of eternity. Russian leaders could invite Europeans and Americans to eternity because Russia got there first. They understood European and American weaknesses, which they had first seen and exploited at home. .... Concepts moved from East to West. An example is the word ‘fake’ as in ‘fake news’. This sounds like an American invention, and Donald Trump claimed itv as his own; but the term was used in Russia and Ukraine long before it began its career in the United States. It meant creating a fictional text that posed as a piece of journalism, both to spread confusion about a particular event and to discredit journalism as such. Eternity politicians first spread fake news themselves, then claim that all news is fake, and finally that only their spectacles are real. .... The techniques were everywhere the same, although they became more sophisticated over time. .... Russia in the 2010s was a kleptocratic regime that sought to export the politics of eternity: to demolish factuality, to preserve inequality, and to accelerate similar tendencies in Europe and the United States.” (emphasis added)

Footnotes:
1. Dark free speech: Constitutionally legal and protected (1) lies and deceit to distract, misinform, confuse, polarize and/or demoralize, (2) unwarranted opacity to hide inconvenient truths, facts and corruption (lies and deceit of omission), and (3) unwarranted emotional manipulation (i) to obscure the truth and blind the mind to lies and deceit, and (ii) to provoke irrational, reason-killing emotions and feelings, including fear, hate, anger, disgust, distrust, intolerance, cynicism, pessimism and all kinds of bigotry including racism. (my label, my definition)

2. If my recollection of American history from public education and my observations of American conservative and populist political rhetoric is any indicator, the facts that American capitalist politics resists or denies include those chronicled in the 10-hour documentary Plutocracy, which is discussed here.

Massive Propaganda Attacks on the US

In recent days, descriptions of current Russian propaganda attacks on US society and politics have appeared. The scope and sophistication of foreign attacks on truth and civil comity are increasing. Yesterday, Rachael Maddow discussed how the attacks are being carried out. The propaganda includes a bizarre assertion that the US is prone to break into separate countries within 20 years as states simply secede from the union. A segment with democratic representative Sean Patrick Maloney, member of the House Intelligence Committee, discussed the reluctance of American social media companies to try to combat Russian lies and social attacks. Maloney commented that he has no confidence in Facebook's "moral compass."

Maddow's broadcast segments referred to an article by Lawfare that found a massive Russian internet propaganda campaign now underway. The Lawfare article describes huge Russian online propaganda operations run by an outfit called TheSoul Publishing (TSP). It turns out that TSP is the third largest presence on YouTube in terms of views and subscribers. Only Disney and WarnerMedia are bigger.  TSP operates at least 140 YouTube channels and 70 Facebook pages, including the YouTube channels 5-Minute Crafts, Bright Side, 5-Minute Crafts Kids, 5-Minute Crafts Girly, 7-Second Riddles and 5-Minute Magic. The point of that was to build a massive audience and people's trust. Lawfare researchers found that As of December 16, 2019, 5-Minute Crafts had more than 62.8 million subscribers, and about 16.6 billion views, while the Bright Side channel had over 32.3 million subscribers and about 6.3 billion views. All of TSP's channels YouTube were apparently created in 2016 or later.

TSP also operates on Facebook. Bright Side on Facebook claims to have begun in June 2004, but Facebook’s transparency measures show a start date of July 2, 2015. Bright Side has more than 44 million followers, as compared to the New York Times which has a Facebook following of 16 million. Lawfare comments on TSP:

It is run by Russian nationals and based in and managed from Cyprus, with U.S. operations housed in a shared work space in New York. It funds itself with ad revenues from YouTube and Google worth tens of millions of dollars. And in 2018, it purchased a small suite of Facebook advertisements targeting U.S. citizens on political issues—and it made those purchases in rubles. 

Indeed, TheSoul Publishing does create nonpolitical (and apparently lucrative) craft videos, reaching worldwide audiences. But it also creates political content, including pro-Russian versions of histories that contain inaccurate information. The social media platforms, which I made aware of TheSoul’s activities, have not taken action against the company—apparently having concluded that its activities do not violate their policies.

TSP history videos are posted on the Smart Banana YouTube channel. They are are pro-Russian propaganda. A fake history post from February of 2019 falsely asserts that Ukraine is part of Russia, and even weirder, it claims that Soviet leader Nikita Khruschev gave Alaska to the US in 1957. Real history is that the Ukraine is not part of Russia and the US bought Alaska from Russia in 1867.

In related news, a recent article by Wired magazine points to the rise of deepfake photos of fake people generated by artificial intelligence to set up fake social media accounts. Wired writes:

Facebook on Friday removed what it called a global network of more than 900 accounts, pages, and groups from its platform and Instagram that allegedly used deceptive practices to push pro-Trump narratives to about 55 million users. The network used fake accounts, artificial amplification, and, notably, profile photos of fake faces generated using artificial intelligence to spread polarizing, predominantly right-wing content around the web, including on Twitter and YouTube. 

It represents an alarming new development in the information wars, as it appears to be the first large-scale deployment of AI-generated images in a social network. In a report on the influence operation, researchers from disinformation groups Graphika and DFRLab noted that this was the first time they had seen the technology used to support an inauthentic social media campaign.

We are under attack

I have heard some people argue that the influence of Russia on America and its politics is low to non-existent. Evidence keeps piling up that Russian influence is large and growing in both size and sophistication. Russia has all the time and money it needs to keep finding ways to foment distrust in democracy, government institutions and each other.

For context, it is very well worth knowing that a spy who defected from the Soviet Union in 1970 asserted that most of the KGB's budget (about 85%) was for disinformation and social disruption campaigns against Western democracies and the rest was for spies and their activities. Other defectors have said the same thing. One source comments:

Later high-profile Russian intelligence defectors, such as Yuri Bezmenov, confirmed that the targeting of community groups and the subversion of western societies was a primary objective of the Kremlin. Bezmenov was granted asylum in Canada in 1970 and later worked for the CBC. In a 1984 video, Bezmenov describes the goals and tactics of KGB active measures: 

The main emphasis of the KGB is not in the area of intelligence at all. According to my opinion and [the] opinion of many defectors of my caliber, only about 15% of time, money, and manpower [are] spent on espionage as such. The other 85% is a slow process, which we call either ‘ideological subversion,’ or ‘active measures’ – in the language of the KGB – or ‘psychological warfare.’ What it basically means is, to change the perception of reality, of every American, to such an extent that despite the abundance of information, no one is able to come to sensible conclusions in the interests of defending themselves, their families, their community and their country. (Bezmenov 1984) 

Historically, Russian disinformation and active measures have targeted democratic systems by attempting to undermine the society and institutions of the West through proxy organizations, distortion of narratives and the media, compromised individuals, agents of influence, and the manipulation of elections. The Kremlin’s tactics and objectives remain fundamentally the same today as they were in the 1940s. The main difference is, as former Kremlin insider Gleb Pavlovksy, who once worked on Putin’s election campaign, has said: “[I]n Soviet times the concept of truth was important. Even if they were lying they took care to prove what they were doing was ‘the truth.’ Now no one even tries proving the ‘truth.’ You can just say anything. Create realities” (Pomerantsev and Weiss 2014, 9).

Defense of Russia as a poor, threatened innocent nation is as much nonsense now as it was under Stalin. America is under a serious, sustained Russian attack and it has been for decades. Unfortunately, our president is working for the Russian government, via bribery and/or via blackmail. Americans cannot look to either the president or GOP members of congress to stand up for American democracy or the rule of law. Defense of nation will have to come from the people and the democrats.