Climate Science Denial: The Motte-and-Bailey Logic Fallacy

The motte is the structure on the high ground and the bailey is 

below and inside the fenced area:

the bailey is easier to attack than the motte

(10th century technology)

Wikipedia: The motte-and-bailey fallacy (named after the motte-and-bailey castle) is a form of argument and an informal fallacy where an arguer conflates two positions which share similarities, one modest and easy to defend (the "motte") and one much more controversial (the "bailey").[1] The arguer advances the controversial position, but when challenged, they insist that they are only advancing the more modest position.[2][3] Upon retreating to the motte, the arguer can claim that the bailey has not been refuted (because the critic refused to attack the motte)[1] or that the critic is unreasonable (by equating an attack on the bailey with an attack on the motte).

Employing logic fallacies to deceive, distract, disinform and so forth is a common tactic among purveyors of dark free speech or epistemic terrorism. In the vice presidential debate, Mike Pence used the motte-and-bailey fallacy to deceive and confuse people about climate change. At the Neurologica blog, Steve Novella explains it nicely:

“Pence represented the typical denial strategy. He started by saying that the climate is changing, we just don’t know why or what to do about it. This is the motte and bailey fallacy in action – pull back from the position that is untenable to defend an easier position, but don’t completely surrender the outer position. Pence was not about to deny that global warming is happening at all in that forum because he would be too easily eviscerated, so he just tried to muddy the waters on what may seem like an easier point.

But of course, he is completely wrong on both counts. We do know what is causing climate change, it is industrial release of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. At least there is a strong consensus of scientists who are 95% confident or more this is the major driver, and there is no tenable competing theory. That is what a scientific fact looks like. We also know what to do about it – decrease global emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. And we know how to do that – change our energy infrastructure to contain more carbon neutral sources with the goal of decarbonizing energy. Change our transportation industry as much as possible over to electric (or perhaps hydrogen) vehicles. Advance other industrial processes that release significant amounts of CO2. And look for ways to improve energy efficiency and sequester carbon efficiently. It’s not like there aren’t actual detailed published plans for exactly what to do about it.

Pence, however, will rush from his perceived motte into the bailey of total denial when he feels he has an opening. So he also said that the “climate change alarmists” are warning about hurricanes, but we are having the same number of hurricanes today as we did 100 years ago. This is not literally true (there were six hurricanes so far this year in the North Atlantic, and four in 1920), and it looks from the graph like there is a small uptick, but let’s say it’s true enough that statistically there isn’t a significant change in the number of hurricanes. This is called lying with facts – give a fact out of context that creates a deliberately false impression. In this case the false impression is also a straw man, because climate scientists don’t claim that global warming increases the number of hurricanes. They claim (their models predict) that warming increases the power and negative effects from the hurricanes that do occur.

Pence next tried to take credit for dropping CO2 release from the US, as if this is tied to pulling out of the Paris Accord. It is true that CO2 emissions are decreasing, but this is a trend that has been fairly linear since 2005. Between 2005 and 2018 US CO2 emissions dropped 12%. This is largely due to shifting energy production to less CO2 producing methods, including rising renewables. But also, I will acknowledge, this is partly due to a shift from coal to natural gas. There has been a huge drop in coal as a percentage of US energy. Pence selectively used this fact to defend natural gas, glossing over the fact that this is a greater knock against coal, which he does not want to criticize.

Admittedly a live debate is not the place to get into all these details, but pretty much everything Pence said on the climate was misleading and tracked with fossil fuel industry talking points rather than the scientific consensus.”

A couple of things merit comment. 

First, Trump, Pence and the GOP generally have been ruthlessly using logic flaws, lies and deceptive rhetoric for decades to confuse people and sow doubt in the face of contrary climate science evidence they cannot refute using either evidence (facts) or sound reasoning (~logic). Since they do that with climate science, it seems reasonable to believe that they would do that for all other things they dislike or want to deny, science-related or not.

Second, special interests with threatened economic interests have been doing the same thing for decades. 

Third, conservative politicians and special interests who distort or deny realities based on science or anything else are deeply immoral in their unwarranted distortions and denials. In this regard, they are moral cowards.

Politics and Birth Control: What You Need to Know

 Dear Cornelia,

Can you please explain to me what’s going on in the news? Is President Trump going to limit my access to birth control? Do I need to stock up before the election? 

-Politically Pressed

Hello My Dear Politically Pressed,

Right now may feel like a scene right out of The Handmaid’s Tale. So much is out of our control! Let me start by clearing things up for you, which I hope will ease your mind.

First of all, Trump himself cannot “limit your access to birth control.” Right now, insurance companies are required to pay for contraceptives under the Affordable Care Act (also known as Obamacare or ACA). The Affordable Care Act also allows you to stay on your parent’s insurance plan until age 26 and get free mammograms, among many other things.

Right now the Affordable Care Act is under pressure, which means your access to birth control may be under pressure. But not from Trump. The future of the Affordable Care Act lies in the hands of the Supreme Court. In fact, the Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments on the ACA exactly one (!) week after the election. However, the results will likely not be announced until the spring of 2021— the end of the Supreme Court’s session. Let me say that again: The status of your insurance-covered contraceptives will not change until this spring at the earliest. And no guarantee. T-God! So no, you do not need to “stock-up” on birth control. In fact, I’m not even sure that’s legal.

Now, as you know, with the tragic passing of Cornell’s very own Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg ’54, Trump will likely replace her seat in the court with conservative Amy Coney Barrett. It’s still up in the air whether or not Barrett could hear arguments on the ACA this November. But things are looking promising for Amy Coney Barrett, and not so promising for the Affordable Care Act.

Let’s just say hypothetically the Affordable Care Act is struck down. What will happen? If the ACA contraceptive coverage is changed or eliminated, the requirement for the coverage of contraceptives will fall onto the states. Unfortunately, only 28 states require insurance plans to cover contraceptives. Another issue: only 59 percent of workers are covered by state-regulated plans. The other  61 percent are insured by private plans, and the law will no longer require private plans to cover contractive costs. It is likely that without the ACA, millions of women will lose birth-control coverage.

To answer your question, your access to birth control will depend on what happens in the Supreme Court. Then, it depends on what state you live in and what your plan looks like.

The grim reality is that next spring, contraceptive coverage is likely to look much different. But it won’t go away completely. Look for insurance plans that include contraceptive coverage. Ask your employer. Don’t fret: There are other options for birth control. Planned Parenthood here in Ithaca can provide birth control options for next to nothing.

The best way to protect your access to birth control is to vote. The representatives we elect this fall will either be involved in defining the ACA or building new legislation to replace it. Let’s make sure our leaders know what we want.

Cheers,

Cornelia

https://cornellsun.com/2020/10/01/sex-on-thursday-politics-and-birth-control-what-you-need-to-know//

When is yours?

When do you do your “best” (as in clearest, most logical, most creative, most productive, etc.) thinking?  Do you even have a/some “peak performance” situation?   

Is it maybe:

• Upon waking up in the morning
• In the dark of the night, when you can’t sleep
• That time right before going to sleep
  
• When experiencing daydreams
• When under a lot of pressure (more chaotic situations)
• When under the influence of mind-altering drugs or alchol 
• Listening to your favorite music
• Reading a good book
• When you are able to separate your emotions/feelings from your thinking
• When you are angry
• Out in nature
• Sitting on the crapper (hey, who am I to question that? 😱)
• I’m always at peak performance... the “consummate thinker”
• I've never even noticed or thought about the concept of "clear thinking"
  
• Other (mix and match your personal specs)

So, give us the perfect scenario for your best thinking.

And thanks for recommending.

Trump’s Growing Rage at Political Opposition

Our enraged president is losing whatever control he had of his emotions and limited capacity to reason coherently. He is now calling for indictment of his political rivals. This may be related to his intolerance of restrictions his coronavirus infection has imposed on him. NPR is reporting that the president’s doctor has given him a clean bill of health to operate normally starting tomorrow despite no public transparency about his real clinical status. Presumably, the president ordered his doctor to do this. Previously, his doctors stated that they wanted him to remain out of the public at least until next Monday.

Calls for indictment of political rivals is more evidence of the president’s deadly serious, inherent anti-democratic authoritarianism and utter contempt for the rule of law. The New York Times writes:

“President Trump berated his own cabinet officers on Thursday for not prosecuting or implicating his political enemies, lashing out even as he announced that he hoped to return to the campaign trail on Saturday just nine days after he tested positive for the coronavirus.

In his first extended public comments since learning he had the virus last week, Mr. Trump went on the offensive not only against his challenger, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., but the Democratic running mate, Senator Kamala Harris, whom he called “a monster” and a “communist.” He balked at participating in his debate next Thursday with Mr. Biden if held remotely as the organizers decided to do out of health concerns.

But Mr. Trump secured a statement from the White House physician clearing him to return to public activities on Saturday and then promptly said he would try to hold a campaign rally in Florida that day, two days earlier than the doctor had originally said was needed to determine whether he was truly out of danger. The president again dismissed the virus, saying, “when you catch it, you get better,” ignoring the more than 212,000 people in the United States who did not get better and died from it. 

The president castigated his own team, declaring that Attorney General William P. Barr would go down in history “as a very sad, sad situation” if he did not indict Democrats like Mr. Biden and former President Barack Obama. He complained that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had not released Hillary Clinton’s emails, saying, “I’m not happy about him for that reason.” And he targeted Christopher A. Wray, the F.B.I. director. “He’s been disappointing,” Mr. Trump said. 

‘Unless Bill Barr indicts these people for crimes, the greatest political crime in the history of our country, then we’re going to get little satisfaction unless I win and we’ll just have to go, because I won’t forget it,’ Mr. Trump said, referring to the investigation into his 2016 campaign ties with Russia. ‘But these people should be indicted. This was the greatest political crime in the history of our country, and that includes Obama and it includes Biden.’  

Ms. Pelosi said she planned to introduce legislation on Friday creating a commission on presidential capacity to review the health of a commander in chief under provisions of the 25th Amendment providing for the temporary transfer of power to the vice president in case of inability to discharge the duties of the office. “Crazy Nancy is the one who should be under observation,” Mr. Trump replied on Twitter.  

‘I felt pretty lousy,’ Mr. Trump said. But, he added, ‘I’m back because I’m a perfect physical specimen and I’m extremely young.’ He once again played down the severity of the disease. ‘Now what happens is you get better,’ he said. ‘That’s what happens, you get better.’”

At this point in his mental deterioration, our delusional president is not even pretending to operate in accord with the rule of law. Also, his mentally unsound state of mind cannot be denied any longer. If sufficient evidence showed that Obama, Clinton or Biden had committed crimes, they would have been indicted already by the hyper-partisan Department of Justice. In recent years, there have been many partisan investigations to destroy prominent democrats. All have failed to indict anyone so far.

This is another example of the president’s deranged, fake reality-based world view. Just like there is no evidence of massive voter fraud, there is insufficient evidence to issue indictments of the democrats the president wants thrown in prison. Neither massive vote fraud nor the alleged democratic criminal activity exists. Our obviously mentally ill president is grossly unfit to be in office. He needs to be removed from office right now. That GOP members of congress condone this by their silence indicates that they too are grossly unfit to be in office. 

The monster here isn’t Kamala Harris and Pelosi isn’t crazy. The crazy monster sits in the White House. Sadly, that obviously sick, disrespectful, enraged beast is aided and abetted by a corrupt, incompetent tribal GOP leadership.

The DoJ’s New Voter Suppression Tactic: Building a Vote Fraud Narrative Without Evidence

Attorney General William Barr -- Building a 

narrative of massive vote fraud without any evidence 

In a new twist on voter suppression, the Department of Justice (DoJ) has reversed a decades-long policy of not opening aggressive voter fraud investigations in the months before an election. The idea was to avoid  “chilling legitimate voting and campaign activities” or “interjecting the investigation itself as an issue.” 

The New York Times writes on this politically fraudulent new form of voter suppression:

“For decades, federal prosecutors have been told not to mount election fraud investigations in the final months before an election for fear they could depress voter turnout or erode confidence in the results. Now, the Justice Department has lifted that prohibition weeks before the presidential election.

The move comes as President Trump and Attorney General William P. Barr have promoted a false narrative that voter fraud is rampant, potentially undermining Americans’ faith in the election.

A Justice Department lawyer in Washington said in a memo to prosecutors on Friday that they could investigate suspicions of election fraud before votes are tabulated. That reversed a decades-long policy that largely forbade aggressively conducting such inquiries during campaigns to keep their existence from becoming public and possibly “chilling legitimate voting and campaign activities” or “interjecting the investigation itself as an issue” for voters.

The memo creates “an exception to the general non-interference with elections policy” for suspicions of election fraud, particularly misconduct by federal government workers, including postal workers or military employees; both groups transport mail-in ballots. The exception allows investigators to take overt investigative steps, like questioning witnesses, that were previously off limits in such inquiries until after election results were certified.

The Justice Department could ‘build a narrative, despite the absence of any evidence, of fraud in mail-in voting so Trump can challenge the election results if he loses,’ said Joyce Vance, a former U.S. attorney in Alabama under the Obama administration.

‘They’ve told us this is their strategy, and we’re watching them implement it,’ Ms. Vance said.  

The policy shift, Mr. Hasen said, ‘encourages more of these announcements that could, these small-bore things, be treated as evidence of rigging and then promoted at a higher level.’”

Vance is right. The president has openly said that if he loses the election, it will be due to voter fraud. Clearly, any DoJ investigation itself is going to become a campaign issue. The president will use it as cover and claim that the investigation itself is evidence of massive vote fraud, despite there being no such evidence. This president will not accept defeat at the polls. He will lie, cheat, irrationally emotionally manipulate and even fabricate fake evidence to stay in power.  

This is the kind of lies, deceit and political fraud a corrupt tyrant wannabe engages in when making his best, last run at authoritarian power and corrupt wealth. This is also a part of what the end of a meaningful representative democracy can look like.

US Medical Supply Chain Failures Caused Coronavirus Deaths

FRONTLINE investigation to be broadcast

on PBS and online Oct. 6 at 10 p.m. EST/9 p.m. CST

A major ongoing months-long investigation by The Associated Press (AP), the PBS series “FRONTLINE,” and the Global Reporting Centre is analyzing the failures of the medical supply chain to respond to the pandemic. The bottom line is that warnings by experts and manufacturers for years have been ignored by both congress and presidents. The consequence is tens of thousands of needless deaths in the coronavirus pandemic. The AP writes:

“Medical supply chains that span oceans and continents are the fragile lifelines between raw materials and manufacturers overseas, and health care workers on COVID-19 front lines in the U.S. As link after link broke, the system fell apart.

This catastrophic collapse was one of the country’s most consequential failures to control the virus. And it wasn’t unexpected: For decades, politicians and corporate officials ignored warnings about the risks associated with America’s overdependence on foreign manufacturing, and a lack of adequate preparation at home, the AP and “FRONTLINE” found.

As the pandemic rolled into the U.S., Asian factories shut down, halting exports of medical supplies to the U.S. Meanwhile, government stockpiles were depleted from a flu outbreak a decade earlier, and there was no way to rapidly restock. The federal government dangerously advised people not to wear masks, looking to preserve the supply for health care workers. Counterfeits flooded the market.

Although it will take years for researchers to understand why the pandemic was disproportionately worse in the U.S., early studies that compare different countries’ responses are finding that shortages of masks, gloves, gowns, shields, testing kits and other medical supplies indeed cost lives.

Meanwhile, studies in nursing homes -- in China, Washington state and across the U.S. -- found that COVID-19 cases were significantly higher in places with shortages of personal protective equipment, or PPE. Harvard Medical School professor Dr. Andrew T. Chan and colleagues found health care workers who didn’t have adequate PPE had a 30% greater chance of infection than colleagues with enough supplies. Black, Hispanic and Asian staffers had the highest risk of catching COVID-19, they found.

“And these are unacceptable deaths, each of which could have been prevented if we had had adequate supply chains in place in advance of the pandemic,” said UC Berkeley Professor William Dow.

Dow and his colleagues say there would be massive savings, in lives and tax dollars, if the government invested more in buying and storing stockpiles of supplies. 

‘This is a case where no individual health care organization is large enough to move the market and induce suppliers to invest in those types of supply chains,’ said Dow. ‘So the government needs to be able to go in and guarantee a certain amount of purchases so that it will be in the self-interest of each one of these manufacturers to be willing to put in the investments into that supply chain.’  

Despite early warnings from inside the White House, the federal government failed to substantially mobilize domestic manufacturers until April, three months after the virus began spreading exponentially across the U.S.  

The impact of the virus varies greatly from country to country. But it is now clear that those with well-managed, diverse and flexible supply chains were able to protect against the deadly spread in ways the U.S. failed.  

The warnings of looming and potentially deadly supply shortages from the White House began confidentially in February when White House trade adviser Peter Navarro wrote to the COVID-19 task force, urging the administration to halt exports and ramp up production of N95 masks. The U.S. “faces the real prospect of a severe mask shortage!” he wrote on Feb. 9.  

In addition to halting exports and prohibiting the sale of N95 factory equipment to China, Navarro pleaded that the U.S. government must provide ‘immediate purchase guarantees for all U.S. supplies at maximum production capacity.’ 

And according to health care workers, the Government Accountability Office and even the FDA, N95 masks continue to be in short supply. The White House denies this.”

 

The AP article goes on to point out that people responsible for pandemic preparedness in the Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump administrations all said they warned about inadequate supply chains. Neither congress nor the White House made this a priority due to the cost of maintaining a US supply chain. 

In the wake of the 2014-21016 Ebola virus outbreak, an Obama advisor recommended that the US government needed to stockpile protective equipment during an emergency. The problem with that is that foreign suppliers may not be able to keep up with demand if their output was needed domestically. That is what happened.

A 2019 Trump administration pandemic simulation exercise concluded that the U.S. would not have stockpiled enough antiviral medications, needles, syringes, N95 respirators, ventilators, and other needed medical supplies to adequately respond. That is what happened less than a year after that exercise. In the wake of that exercise, the Trump administration made no move to prepare.

As time passed, American manufacturers of supplies either went bankrupt or shut down manufacturing due to limited demand for US supplies that were more expensive than foreign-made supplies. This failure may have saved billions of tax dollars, but that savings has now cost the US trillions in economic losses and thousands of lives. That was penny wise, but pound stupid.

Maybe this experience will result in a meaningful change. At the August Republican National Convention the president stated that “over the next four years, .... we will .... bring home our medical supply chains, and we will end our reliance on China once and for all.” Joe Biden announced a plan to invest $700 billion to support U.S. manufacturing by purchasing domestically made medical supplies and other goods.

Where does responsibility lie?

In the past, the president has blamed sitting presidents for the bad things that occurred while they were in office. He blamed Bush for the Iraq war and said he should have been impeached for it. If one applies the same standard of responsibility to Trump, he should be impeached for his failures. How one apportions responsibility to members of congress will depend factors such as on who failed to act and who opposed action.