Etiquette



DP Etiquette

First rule: Don't be a jackass.

Other rules: Do not attack or insult people you disagree with. Engage with facts, logic and beliefs. Out of respect for others, please provide some sources for the facts and truths you rely on if you are asked for that. If emotion is getting out of hand, get it back in hand. To limit dehumanizing people, don't call people or whole groups of people disrespectful names, e.g., stupid, dumb or liar. Insulting people is counterproductive to rational discussion. Insult makes people angry and defensive. All points of view are welcome, right, center, left and elsewhere. Just disagree, but don't be belligerent or reject inconvenient facts, truths or defensible reasoning.

Wednesday, September 1, 2021

For the People Act

One of my U.S. Senators, Republican Rob Portman, thinks we cannot afford a $3.5 trillion human infrastructure investment.  From Twitter:

Rob Portman

@senrobportman

18h

Democrats' $3.5 trillion tax and spending bill will send inflation soaring, raise taxes on American families, and undermine economic growth for years to come.  More in my op-ed for the Dispatch Alerts

Michael Moore thinks otherwise (view time 6:38): 

Link here

Portman’s claim is another example of what I call Capitalism Gone Awry: a perverted viewing of Capitalism as a personal big money maker, the greater society be damned, rather than an engine that drives a free economy to prosperity for virtually all, not just the few "already haves."

So, who is right?  Moore or Portman?  Make your case.

The Michael Moore full interview here:


Fascist Republicans in congress issue direct threats

Yesterday, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) issued a direct threat to telecom and social media companies that comply with the January 6 committee records request.



For emphasis, McCarthy's threat includes this unambiguous threat: "a Republican majority will not forget and will stand with Americans to hold them fully accountable under the law."

So, the obvious questions are (1) whether Democratic records requests are illegal, and (2) whether companies who comply with those record requests are illegal. Apparently, McCarthy’s office could not cite a federal statute that a states company would be in violation of it if they complied with a duly empaneled congressional committee because no statute exists. Because of that, one can reasonably believe that McCarthy's threat is empty under existing law. Nonetheless, given the ambiguities and complexities of corporate laws, vengeful fascist Republicans in congress can find things to go after companies for. Intimidation like that is something companies will pay attention to.




Questions: Is McCarthy's threat (i) just a minor kerfuffle and of no real importance, (ii) not a threat at all, (iii) a significant (fascist) attack on democracy and the rule of law, and/or (iv) a Republican Party attempt to obstruct justice because the records request are legal and have to be complied with?  

Tuesday, August 31, 2021

Afghanistan Failed Us! And Other Lies.

 There is a mythology being developed by the Biden Administration and media outlets such as MSNBC in which the US has withdrawn from Afghanistan because it has been failed by the Afghani people, rather than it having failed them.  Here's what President Biden said in his speech about the end of the war, prefaced by his comment that he'd always promised the American people he'd be straight with them:

The truth is, this did unfold more quickly than we had anticipated. So what’s happened? Afghanistan political leaders gave up and fled the country. The Afghan military collapsed, sometimes without trying to fight. If anything, the developments of the past week reinforced that ending U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan now was the right decision.

American troops cannot and should not be fighting in a war and dying in a war that Afghan forces are not willing to fight for themselves. We spent over a trillion dollars. We trained and equipped an Afghan military force of some 300,000 strong. Incredibly well equipped. A force larger in size than the militaries of many of our NATO allies. We gave them every tool they could need. We paid their salaries, provided for the maintenance of their air force, something the Taliban doesn’t have. Taliban does not have an air force. We provided close air support. We gave them every chance to determine their own future. What we could not provide them was the will to fight for that future.

 These comments are reprehensible lies.  While Biden's remarks refer specifically to the faster than anticipated march of the Taliban, he has clearly insinuated that the Afghans, and particularly the military and security forces ( ANDSF ) had failed to adequately use the materiel the US, at great expense, provided them.  It must be so, else the logic of quitting because Afghans quit before us wouldn't hold.  And yet it was the ANDSF which suffered and died in defense of the American cause, and between 2014, when NATO combat support ended and Ashraf Ghani became President, and 2018 some 45,000 ANDSF died fighting the Taliban.  The Americans have lost some 4,000 soldiers and contractors between 2001 and 2018.

While it is true the US sought ANDSF force size of 300,000 or more and that this size is indeed larger than some NATO allies, it is also a force far larger than a nation the size of Afghanistan should be expected to maintain.  It is more than 3x the number of active military per 1,000 citizens of Iraq, for example.  And this might well have been a big part of the problem.  Even Biden recognized the Afghani special forces were highly capable, suggesting a different emphasis might've been more effective.  And the size of the ANDSF made it a major source of corruption, particularly with free-flowing dollars from the US.  While the determination to spend whatever it takes is admirable, the "what it takes" portion apparently also includes necessary limits to and oversight of such spending.

While Biden claims the ANDSF was "incredibly well equipped", that can only be true on paper.  In actual fact much of the advanced equipment provided by the US was only operable with maintenance performed and parts supplied by the US.  Here's how Afghan General Sadat described the situation at the New York Times:

The Afghan forces were trained by the Americans using the U.S. military model based on highly technical special reconnaissance units, helicopters and airstrikes. We lost our superiority to the Taliban when our air support dried up and our ammunition ran out.

Contractors maintained our bombers and our attack and transport aircraft throughout the war. By July, most of the 17,000 support contractors had left. A technical issue now meant that aircraft — a Black Hawk helicopter, a C-130 transport, a surveillance drone — would be grounded.

The contractors also took proprietary software and weapons systems with them. They physically removed our helicopter missile-defense system. Access to the software that we relied on to track our vehicles, weapons and personnel also disappeared. Real-time intelligence on targets went out the window, too.

While I'm sure President Biden is being reasonably honest about the cost of the war, he is not at all honest about the support we gave to the Afghan government.  All these systems, from small arms to C-130s to intelligence gathering, were dependent on US support.  That doesn't sound like a particularly good strategy for exiting the war while leaving behind a capable and reliable ally.  It sounds like the US made itself an indispensable partner, and thus ensured the necessity of its own presence even as it sought to exit.  That policy worked well for American contractors and defense companies, as well as the elite in the Afghan military and government, but not so well for the average Afghan, or American for that matter.

It's worth asking why Biden would bother with any of these lies. There is a central oddity in his response to the withdrawal.  He has suggested that his hands were tied by the previous administration, blaming the timeline for the pullout on Trump, even while he tries to take credit for the withdrawal itself.  The media has abetted this political posturing, largely crediting Biden with ending the war when in fact it was Trump, on Biden's own logic, who did it.  This is surely a response to Trump's having out-maneuvered Democrats on ending the war, and an attempt to maintain anti-war credibility on the left.  But to do so, he is forced to retreat on another issue the Republicans long ago took from them:

We went to Afghanistan almost 20 years ago with clear goals: get those who attacked us on Sept. 11, 2001, and make sure Al Qaeda could not use Afghanistan as a base from which to attack us again...Our mission in Afghanistan was never supposed to have been nation-building. It was never supposed to be creating a unified, centralized democracy. Our only vital national interest in Afghanistan remains today what it has always been: preventing a terrorist attack on American homeland...I’ve argued for many years that our mission should be narrowly focused on counterterrorism, not counterinsurgency or nation-building.

You might recall that during his campaign for the 2000 election, George W. Bush declaimed any interest in or responsibility for "nation-building".  Some of his closest advisors after 9/11 represented the traditional view that the military exists to break things and blow sh*t up, particularly Dick Cheney, widely considered the most influential and powerful vice president in history, as well as Donald Rumsfeld.  The W. administration maintained this view, with its consequent light "footprint" in terms of the American presence, in Afghanistan until at least as late as 2003.  In February of that same year, then Senator Biden testified before congress:

“In some parts of this administration, ‘nation-building’ is a dirty phrase. But the alternative to nation-building is chaos — a chaos that churns out bloodthirsty warlords, drug-traffickers and terrorists. We’ve seen it happen in Afghanistan before — and we’re watching it happen in Afghanistan today.”

Then again in October:

“The fact of the matter is, we’ve missed an opportunity to do what many of us on this committee, including the senator about to sit down, have been pleading be done from the beginning. But because there has been this overwhelming reluctance on the part of some in the administration to get involved in genuine, quote, ‘nation-building,’ we essentially elected a mayor of Kabul and turned the rest over to the warlords, and we’re paying a price for it now.”

So clearly President Biden was for nation-building before he was against it, and indeed his language in October clearly contradicts his language in August 2021, in criticizing the failure of the US to create "a unified, centralized democracy".  It has long been the tradition for hawkish liberals, or dovish conservatives if one prefers, to promote the concepts behind "nation-building" if not the term itself.  It was this aspect of the W. administration which pushed for it, particularly Paul Wolfowitz and the neocons.  Democrats took the lead, at least with regard to Afghanistan, on promoting democratization as a major part of the counter-terrorism effort.  And they were right to do so.

Now, however, the failure of the war in Afghanistan on particularly that aspect is being used by Democrats, and particularly by "progressives", to attack the very concept.  And Biden has joined his voice with theirs:

So I’m left again to ask of those who argue that we should stay: How many more generations of America’s daughters and sons would you have me send to fight Afghanistan’s civil war when Afghan troops will not? How many more lives, American lives, is it worth, how many endless rows of headstones at Arlington National Cemetery? I’m clear on my answer: I will not repeat the mistakes we’ve made in the past. The mistake of staying and fighting indefinitely in a conflict that is not in the national interest of the United States, of doubling down on a civil war in a foreign country, of attempting to remake a country through the endless military deployments of U.S. forces. Those are the mistakes we cannot continue to repeat because we have significant vital interest in the world that we cannot afford to ignore.

Note that this is a civil war the US largely engineered, and is now fleeing the consequences of its actions, leaving particularly the girls and women of Afghanistan to pay the price.  Now Biden thinks nation-building is a mistake of the past, and that the US has no vital interest in Afghanistan, from whence al Qaeda, protected and aided by the Taliban, launched its attack on 9/11.  It is true that al Qaeda as such no longer exists, having been fractured into dozens of lesser organizations, each without the resources and capabilities the original had.  But lest we allow ourselves to think the present unpopularity there of organizations like ISIS-K prevents any cooperation between them and the Taliban, remember that al Qaeda was unpopular with much of the Taliban as well, and it was through them that Mullah Omar eventually won control of the Taliban itself.

It might well be true that Afghanistan is no longer a significant vital interest to the US.  But democracy is, particularly in the Middle East, wbere the US has for generations supported various undemocratic regimes.  Today it remains one of the least democratic regions in the world, and one of the most autocratic.  Biden has this month signed off on that deal, without mentioning the betrayal of our allies the Kurds, or the relative success in Iraq.  But what should we expect from a president who refuses to take the minimal necessary steps to protect the US itself?



Afghanistan: A cornucopia of lies, deceit and partisan recrimination and misdirection

We all expected it. We are going to get it. The lies are gushing from all over the place. Our former ex-president, Lyin Donnie, hacked up a hairball yesterday that immediately got a three Pinocchio rating from professional fact checkers, but rave reviews from fascist radical right media. The Washington Post fact checker writes
“ALL EQUIPMENT should be demanded to be immediately returned to the United States, and that includes every penny of the $85 billion dollars in cost.” 

This is a new claim. A version of this claim also circulates widely on right-leaning social media — that somehow the Taliban has ended up with $83 billion in U.S. weaponry. (Trump, as usual, rounds the number up.)

.... the equipment provided to Afghan forces amounted to $24 billion over 20 years. The GAO said approximately 70 percent of the equipment went to the Afghan military and the rest went to the national police (part of the Interior Ministry).

Of course, some of this equipment may be obsolete or destroyed — or soon may not be usable.

Even more problematic, there were not enough maintenance crews to maintain the aircraft. “Without continued contractor support, none of the AAF’s airframes can be sustained as combat effective for more than a few months, depending on the stock of equipment parts in-country, the maintenance capability on each airframe, and the timing of contractor support withdrawal,” the [GAO] report said.

“No one has any accounting of exactly what survived the last weeks of the collapse and fell into Taliban hands, and even before the collapse, SIGAR had publicly reported no accounting was possible in many districts,” said Anthony H. Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “In rough terms, however, if the ANDSF could not sustain it without foreign contractors, the Taliban will have very serious problems in operating it. That covers most aircraft and many electronics and heavier weapons.”

The Pinocchio Test

U.S. military equipment was given to Afghan security forces over two decades. Tanks, vehicles, helicopters and other gear fell into the hands of the Taliban when the U.S.-trained force quickly collapsed. The value of these assets is unclear, but if the Taliban is unable to obtain spare parts, it may not be able to maintain them.

But the value of the equipment is not more than $80 billion. That’s the figure for all of the money spent on training and sustaining the Afghan military over 20 years. The equipment portion of that total is about $24 billion — certainly not small change — but the actual value of the equipment in the Taliban’s hands is probably much less than even that amount.
Significant factual error and/or obvious contradictions. This gets into the realm of "mostly false." But it could include statements which are technically correct (such as based on official government data) but are so taken out of context as to be very misleading. The line between Two and Three can be bit fuzzy and we do not award half-Pinocchios. So we strive to explain the factors that tipped us toward a Three. 

The WaPo fact checkers describe four Pinocchio statements like this: Whoppers.

Questions: 
1. Are the WaPo fact checkers biased in favor of Lyin Donnie because they should have rated his lying blither a four Pinocchio statement since the liar’s assertion of $85 billion was literally 100% false? In other words, the fact checkers let that literal lie slide.

2. Is this just the beginning of what is going to turn out to be a hell of a lot of lying, finger pointing, deceit, sleight of hand and so forth from all over the place, left, right, center, alt-universe, pragmatic rationalists, Christian nationalist, fascist, etc., or just from some of those places?

Monday, August 30, 2021

An abortion update



As expected, the Supreme Court is set to hear an abortion case from Mississippi that could wind up overturning the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision. Anti-abortion states have been passing laws for years that cut back on abortion rights, but are intended to kill of Roe once and for all. Those laws are constantly being challenged in the courts, which is what the people who wrote the laws want. They all want to be the authors of the case that finally kills off Roe. The current case presents the court with an intermediate scenario that would require the court to (1) reverse its rule that abortions before fetus viability outside the womb are constitutional, (2) completely overturn Roe, or (3) reject the state law and leave things as they are for now. 

Option 1 would greatly limit abortions. Option two would either leave abortion law to the states, or outlaw most or all abortions in all states. The former is probably more likely than the latter.

Given that there now are six radical Christian nationalist judges on the court, all of whom were put there specifically to overturn Roe as their highest priority, this feels like the case that will probably see the demise of Roe, but opinions on that differ (see below). The New York Times writes
A major confrontation on the abortion battlefield looms this fall, when the Supreme Court is expected to hear arguments on whether Mississippi can ban abortion after 15 weeks. That’s roughly nine weeks before viability, the point at which states are now allowed to forbid abortion. To uphold Mississippi’s law, the court would have to eliminate its own viability rule or reverse Roe v. Wade altogether.

Given the composition of the court, there is a real chance the justices may overthrow Roe. But there is also the possibility that the court, for institutional or political reasons, may not yet want to upend that 1973 decision, which found the Constitution protects a woman’s right to have an abortion without undue government interference.

What then? A recent ruling by the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit seems tailor made for a Supreme Court that wants to look as if it cares about precedent while shooting a hole through that right. The appellate court relied on a past Supreme Court ruling to give leeway to the Texas Legislature to restrict a certain abortion procedure even though there was uncertainty about the medical consequences of the stricture.  
Texas is one of several states that functionally ban dilation and evacuation, the safest and most common abortion procedure used in the second trimester. In performing the procedure, a doctor dilates the cervix and then removes a fetus using forceps and possibly suction.
The NYT goes on to point out that the abortion-restricting law in Texas could be a pathway for states to get rid of Roe without overturning it.[1] That would leave a fig leaf of plausible deniability for the Christian nationalists on the court to falsely claim they are not political partisans. That Texas law is bubbling up and it might be the one the Supreme Court eventually chooses to uphold. By doing so, there would be a path to eliminate legal abortions without overturning Roe. The states could regulate legal abortions into non-existence but point to a meaningless Roe decision as being still valid law. That is a cynical political argument. However, the anti-abortion crowd does not care about cynical tactics. They care only about getting rid of abortions.

If the court chooses option 2 and leave abortion law to the states, women with the means to travel out of state to get an abortion will routinely do so. If the court decided to make abortion illegal everywhere, then women with the means to travel out of the country to get an abortion will routinely do so. If states makes it illegal travel to get an abortion, then depending on the penalty states decide to impose, life for those women could get complicated and/or dangerous. 

Questions: Should the Supreme Court overturn Roe and make abortions illegal in all states, or leave it to the states to make what laws they want? Is the Supreme Court mostly politically partisan or not, at least on politicized issues such as abortion, gun control, civil liberties and voting rights?

Footnote: 
1. The NYT writes on the implications of the Texas law: 
The Fifth Circuit decision, should it end up before the Supreme Court, offers an escape hatch for justices who might think it is prudent to take their time dismantling abortion rights.

The court’s institutionalists, led by Chief Justice John Roberts, do not want to crush respect for the federal judiciary. Honoring precedent makes the justices look more like jurists than partisans. And politically, overruling Roe also presents unique challenges.

Most Americans pay no attention to much of what the Supreme Court does, but abortion is different. A decision reversing Roe could energize abortion rights supporters to vote in 2022 and 2024 and also advance the cause of court reform. All of that means that the court’s conservative majority might hesitate to get rid of Roe quickly, especially without paying lip service to precedent.

That is the genius of the Texas strategy. There seems to be no trade-off between relying on precedent and gradually eliminating abortion rights. The message of the Fifth Circuit decision was clear: The court’s conservatives can have it all.
The court can pretend as hard as it can that it is not partisan political. That is just not true. 

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