Pragmatic politics focused on the public interest for those uncomfortable with America's two-party system and its way of doing politics. Considering the interface of politics with psychology, cognitive biology, social behavior, morality and history.
Etiquette
Wednesday, February 5, 2025
Exploding MAGA bits đŁ
Illegal access to data by Musk and his young DOGE minions?
Akash Bobba â A 22-year-old Indian-American engineer, Akash graduated from the Management, Entrepreneurship, and Technology program at UC Berkeley. He has interned at Meta and Palantir and is currently part of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Luke Farritor â 21 years old. An American software engineer, Luke gained recognition for using artificial intelligence to decipher ancient Herculaneum scrolls, earning a $700,000 prize. He interned at SpaceX and is now a member of DOGE.
Ethan Shaotran â 20 years old. There is no publicly available information about an individual named Ethan Shaotran.
Edward Coristine â 19 years old. Edward appears to have recently graduated from high school and was enrolled at Northeastern University. He interned at Neuralink and is currently listed as an "expert" at the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), reporting directly to the chief of staff.
Gauthier Cole Killian â 24 years old. Also known as Cole Killian, he attended McGill University and worked as an engineer at Jump Trading. He is currently listed as a volunteer with DOGE.
Gavin Kliger â 23 years old. Gavin attended UC Berkeley until 2020 and worked for the AI company Databricks. He is listed as a special adviser to the director of the federal OMP for information technology.
Tuesday, February 4, 2025
Bits: White men in charge; The case that could get rid of same-sex marriage; USAID's demise
CINCINNATI â A lawyer for former Rowan County Clerk Kim Davis argued before the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals Thursday in a case he hopes will help overturn federal same-sex marriage protections.
The oral arguments focused on the question of whether Davis should pay $100,000 to David Ermold and David Moore for denying their marriage license a decade ago.
After the hearing, Davisâ lawyer, Liberty Counsel founder and chairman Mat Staver, told the Lantern that his teamâs goal is for the appeal to reach the U.S. Supreme Court. The case would provide the justices an opportunity to re-evaluate the decision that guaranteed gay couples equal marriage rights on the same grounds that the court in 2022 used to overturn the federal right to abortion, Staver said.
Obergefell v. Hodges, the 2015 decision that guaranteed same-sex couples marriage rights, is âon the same shifting sandâ that doomed Roe v. Wade, said Staver.
âI think ⊠itâs not a matter of âif,â itâs a matter of âwhenâ Obergefell will be overturned,â Staver told the Lantern. âI have no doubt that Obergefell will be overturned, and the issue will be returned back to the states as it was before 2015.â
This could be the case that kills same-sex marriage. Once it gets to the USSC, probably in May or June of 2025, he USSC could take the case up. However, it might not decide it until sometime before the end of the 2026-2027 term in June 2027. My guess is that the USSC would overturn same-sex marriage, but wait until after the 2026 mid-terms to minimize political damage to MAGA and American Christian authoritarianism generally.
Over the last two weeks, President Donald Trumpâs administration has made significant changes to the U.S. agency charged with delivering humanitarian assistance overseas that has left aid organizations agonizing over whether they can continue with programs such as nutritional assistance for malnourished infants and children.
President Kennedy created USAID at the height of the United Statesâ Cold War struggle with the Soviet Union. He wanted a more efficient way to counter Soviet influence abroad through foreign assistance and saw the State Department as frustratingly bureaucratic at doing that.
Congress passed the Foreign Assistance Act and Kennedy set up USAID as an independent agency in 1961.
Critics say the programs are wasteful and promote a liberal agenda.On his first day in office Jan. 20, Trump implemented a 90-day freeze on foreign assistance. Four days later, Peter Marocco â a returning political appointee from Trumpâs first term â drafted a tougher than expected interpretation of that order, a move that shut down thousands of programs around the world and forced furloughs and layoffs.Muskâs Department of Government Efficiency, known as DOGE, has launched a sweeping effort empowered by Trump to fire government workers and cut trillions in government spending. USAID is one of his prime targets. Musk alleges USAID funding been used to launch deadly programs and called it a âcriminal organization.â
About 6 in 10 U.S. adults said the U.S. government was spending âtoo muchâ overall on foreign aid, according to a March 2023 AP-NORC poll. Asked about specific costs, roughly 7 in 10 U.S. adults said the U.S. government was putting too much money toward assistance to other countries. About 9 in 10 Republicans and 55% of Democrats agreed that the country was overspending on foreign aid. At the time, about 6 in 10 U.S. adults said the government was spending âtoo littleâ on domestic issues that included education, health care, infrastructure, Social Security and Medicare.
Polling has shown that U.S. adults tend to overestimate the share of the federal budget that is spent on foreign aid. Surveys from KFF have found that on average, Americans say spending on foreign aid makes up 31% of the federal budget rather than closer to 1% or less [it amounted to ~0.65% in 2023].
Getting it done, the Trump edition
Feast your eyes:
Colombia caves on deportations after Trump's threats
Colombia's leftist president, Gustavo Petro, had earlier said he would only take back citizens "with dignity," such as on civilian planes, and had turned back two US military aircraft with repatriated Colombians.
Trump, less than a week back in office, responded furiously and threatened sanctions of 25 percent that would quickly scale up to 50 percent against Latin America's fourth-largest economy.
Petro initially sought to hit back and impose his own tariffs on US products, but by the end of the volatile Sunday, he had backed down.
https://www.trtworld.com/latin-america/colombia-caves-on-deportations-after-trumps-threats-18258273
Trump and Trudeau make a deal: Canada-U.S. trade war delayed by âat least 30 daysâ
According to the prime minister, in addition to implementing the $1.3 billion border plan â which includes deploying additional personnel, drones, surveillance equipment and helicopters â Canada is making new commitments.
Trudeau said 10,000 frontline personnel âare and will be working on protecting the border,â Canada will be listing cartels as terrorists, and the federal government will appoint a âfentanyl czar.â
Trump agrees to pause tariffs on Canada and Mexico after they pledge to boost border enforcement.
Mexico bows to Trump, scrambles to meet his demands
âMexico will immediately reinforce the northern border with 10,000 members of the National Guard to prevent drug trafficking from Mexico to the United States, particularly fentanyl,â Sheinbaum said in a translated statement on X, formerly Twitter.
âThe United States is committed to working to prevent the trafficking of high-powered weapons to Mexico,â Sheinbaum added. âOur teams will begin working today on two fronts: security and trade. They are pausing tariffs for one month from now.â
https://americanmilitarynews.com/2025/02/mexico-bows-to-trump-scrambles-to-meet-his-demands/
Rubio demands Panama 'reduce China influence' over canal
While not addressing the ultimatum over the canal, Mr Mulino said in a news conference on Sunday that his government would not renew an agreement with China on its "Belt and Road" investment initiative signed by a former president in 2017.
Mr Rubio called the development "a great step forward" in a post on X on Monday morning as he was preparing to leave Panama.
"[A]nother example of [President Trump's] leadership to protect our national security and deliver prosperity for the American people," said Mr Rubio.
Mulino also told reporters he did not see a serious threat of US military force to seize the canal, saying he had proposed technical-level talks with the US to address Mr Trump's concerns about Chinese influence.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c39149p920no
Six Americans freed in Venezuela after Trump envoy meets with Maduro
Six Americans who had been detained in Venezuela are heading home to the US, President Donald Trump announced Friday, after his envoy met with the countryâs President NicolĂĄs Maduro.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/01/americas/americans-freed-in-venezuela-intl-hnk/index.html
Trump tells Putin to end 'ridiculous war' in Ukraine or face new sanctions
Donald Trump has warned he will impose high tariffs and further sanctions on Russia if Vladimir Putin fails to end the war in Ukraine.
Writing on his social media platform Truth Social, he said that by pushing to settle the war he was doing Russia and its president a "very big favour".
Trump had previously said he would negotiate a settlement to Russia's full-scale invasion launched in February 2022, in a single day.
Responding to the threat of harsher sanctions, the Kremlin said it remains "ready for an equal dialogue, a mutually respectful dialogue".
"Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT'S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don't make a 'deal', and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries."
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjw4q7v7ez1o
Trump to speak with China's Xi after hiking tariffs, White House says
China, which has long called tariffs counterproductive, offered relatively muted criticism of the tariffs and signaled an openness to talks.
The country's government appeared poised to seek a deal with Trump that could delay or stop tariffs, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The U.S. dollar hit a record high against the Chinese yuan traded offshore and was hovering near those levels on Monday.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/trump-warns-tariffs-china-may-increase-2025-02-03/
With Trump getting it done and kicking butt, is it any wonder..............
Trump favorable / unfavorable ratings
Trump has a 50.4% favorability rating based on 629 polls.
Feb 3, 2025 Favorable 50.4%
Unfavorable 47.3%
https://elections2024.thehill.com/national/trump-favorability-rating/
MAGA!
Monday, February 3, 2025
Update: The authoritarian attack on fact checking
Last month, the tech company Meta announced its decision to end the third-party fact-checking system it used on Facebook and Instagram. Instead, Meta will adopt a community notes model that invites users to challenge misinformation through the app. For a community note to appear, it must be agreed upon by other contributors from a ârange of perspectives.â
Interviewer: How well do you think Xâs community notes have worked at challenging false or misleading information?Disinformation expert: Not well. Community notes basically give up on the idea of fact-checking. Truth is not a matter of consensus, and itâs not just a matter of people being mistaken. We talk about the âwisdom of crowds.â Sometimes crowds can be ignorant â but thatâs not the real danger. The real danger with community notes is that there are bad actors out there; there are people who will use it as a playground to spread disinformation.Interviewer: Even before Meta decided to cut its fact-checkers, was fighting disinformation on social media actually working?
Expert: No, they werenât doing nearly enough. Hereâs the shame with Facebook: It does an excellent job of vetting the things it truly cares about. Most people have never seen pornography or beheadings or terrorism on Facebook. And thatâs because there is a human team that is dedicated to scrubbing the site of those things, because the executives understand that it would hurt their bottom line. They could do the same thing for false claims, but they choose not to.
Context -- definitions: A fact is an objective, verifiable piece of information that remains constant regardless of belief or perspective. It is something that can be proven through evidence, observation, or empirical data. For example, âfire is hotâ is a fact. By contrast, truth is more subjective and can vary based on individual beliefs, experiences, and interpretations. Truths are often constructed by people to describe how they perceive reality. They can be influenced by faith, commitment, or shared experiences among groups. For instance, the statement âGod existsâ can be a truth for someone who believes in a deity, but it isnât a fact.
Global warming updates
As the compounding impacts of climate-driven disasters take effect, we are seeing home insurance prices spike around the country, pushing up the costs of owning a home. In some cases, insurance companies are pulling out of towns altogether. And in others, people are beginning to move away.
One little-discussed result is that soaring home prices in the United States may have peaked in the places most at risk, leaving the nation on the precipice of a generational decline. Thatâs the finding of a new analysis by the First Street Foundation, a research firm that studies climate threats to housing and provides some of the best climate adaptation data available, both freely and commercially. The analysis predicts an extraordinary reversal in housing fortunes for Americans â nearly $1.5 trillion in asset losses over the next 30 years.
Insurance rates are where the systemic economic risk comes in. Not long ago, insurance premiums were a modest cost of owning a home, amounting to about 8 percent of an average mortgage payment. But insurance costs today are about one-fifth the size of a typical payment, outpacing inflation and even the rate of appreciation on the homes themselves. That makes owning property, on paper anyway, a bad investment.
The NYT reports:
A spokeswoman for Lee Zeldin, the new head of the agency, said the goal was to create an âeffective and efficientâ federal work forceThe Trump administration has warned more than 1,100 Environmental Protection Agency employees who work on climate change, reducing air pollution, enforcing environmental laws and other programs that they could be fired at any time.
An email, reviewed by The New York Times, was sent to staff members who were hired within the past year and have probationary status. Many of those employees were encouraged to join the E.P.A. under the Biden administration to rebuild the agency, which had been depleted during President Trumpâs first term. Others are experienced federal workers who had taken new assignments within the agency.
Many had been hired to work on programs that Congress created through two recent laws, doing things like helping communities replace lead pipes, mediating toxic sites and funding clean energy projects aimed at reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that are heating the planet.
âAs a probationary/trial period employee, the agency has the right to immediately terminate you,â the email states.
Molly Vaseliou, an E.P.A. spokeswoman, said in a statement that âour goal is to be transparent.â She declined to answer questions about the email [the opposite of transparency = opacity], though, including whether Lee Zeldin, the agencyâs new administrator, intended to terminate employees and, if so, for what reason [probably no reason will be given = opacity].