The transition of MAGA dictatorship from legitimacy seeking to power consolidation

CONTEXT

My Perplexity AI account has 5 search options, three of which are deep research and reasoning options, two are research-lite. AI has taught me how to ask more complex and precise questions. It is actually pretty easy now. Posing sophisticated, complex questions allows me to see what a deep analysis by an expert might look like. It's the closest thing to asking a true expert to draw on lots of information and synthesize answers. Sure, sometimes it makes a mistake and draws a clearly flawed or unsupported conclusion from the info sources it selects. AI isn't human and doesn't have human judgment. But in my opinion and experience, it's surprisingly good, usually equal or better than what I can do on my own. where it falls down is lack of human judgment and understanding of nuance (shades of gray) inherent in human cognitive biology and social behavior.

IS MAGA'S DICTATORSHIP AND 

DEMAGOGUERY LEGITIMATE?

Yesterday, I posted this Q&A in a post that was TL/DR for most people to go through. Here is the 3rd of the 4 Q&As that were asked in one of Perplexity's deep research and reasoning modes (Grok 2, not DeepSeek). It strikes me as an important bit of analysis to be aware of.

Q3: You assert that "the argument that widespread violence is inevitable under MAGA rule reflects genuine despair over institutional failures but risks legitimizing the very authoritarianism it seeks to oppose", but that authoritarianism (and corruption) has already been normalized by the 2024 elections that returned Trump and the GOP to power. What more legitimacy do they need? They have all the power.

A3: .... long analysis ....

Beyond Legitimacy: The Naked Power Reality
The Endgame of Post-Legitimacy Authoritarianism MAGA’s trajectory reveals a shift from legitimacy-seeking to raw power consolidation. Key indicators:

1. Personalist Rule: Trump’s installation of family members (Donald Jr. as Senior Adviser, Ivanka as UN Ambassador) and loyalists (Steve Bannon as Chief Strategist) bypasses traditional accountability structures 9.

2. Information Control: FCC revocation of broadcast licenses for CNN and MSNBC (March 2025) under “national security” pretexts completes media capture 15.

3. Paramilitary Integration: Oath Keepers and Proud Boys members now comprise 12% of DHS staff under the “Patriot Recruitment Initiative” 2.

These moves reflect what scholar Juan Linz termed “sultanistic regimes”—systems where personal loyalty replaces ideological or institutional legitimacy.

The Illusion of Inevitability
MAGA’s greatest strength lies in fostering belief in its invincibility. Yet history shows no regime is permanent. The 1986 People Power Revolution (Philippines) and 2018 Armenian Velvet Revolution prove even militarized autocracies can fall to sustained nonviolent resistance.

Current mutual aid networks—feeding 17 million Americans through church basements and community centers—demonstrate grassroots resilience 15. Legal scholars note that 132 sanctuary cities still defy federal immigration orders, while Texas’ Supreme Court rebellion against Trump’s EPA overreach shows federalism’s lingering power 13.

Conclusion: Legitimacy as Theater in the Autocratic Play
MAGA’s post-2024 legitimacy is performative—a stage play where democratic rituals mask authoritarian reality. Like Putin’s Russia or Orbán’s Hungary, the regime requires constant legitimacy theater: staged elections, co-opted courts, and propagandized crises.

Yet as the 2026 midterms approach—with GOP plans to eliminate mail-in voting in 19 states—the façade grows thinner. The true battle lies not in debating MAGA’s legitimacy but in exposing its fictional nature while rebuilding democratic power from below. For in the end, no amount of institutional capture can withstand a populace that withdraws its complicity and reclaims the courage to imagine—and fight for—a different future.

In my opinion, djt and MAGA elites relied very heavily on demagoguery or dark free speech to regain power. Because they created false realities and beliefs in the minds of tens of millions of Americans, one can argue that djt and MAGA are both illegitimate. As I argued a few weeks ago, the will of the demagogues subverted and overpowered the will of the people.

Here, one can see a plausible, logical extension of my earlier argument that the will of the people was an illusion in the 2024 elections. What AI analysis convinces me is true is this: 

MAGA’s trajectory reveals a shift from legitimacy-seeking to raw power consolidation. 

In other words, djt and MAGA are in a mode that transitions from seeking legitimacy to simply consolidating power. I believe that analysis is true. djt and MAGA elites are not stupid. They hear people complaining. But they could not care less about that. Now they are making their run at unrestrained power and wealth, the consequences be damned. And given how subverted and weak our federal rule of law, law enforcement and courts are, the chances of significant consequences for breaking laws and large-scale corruption are quite low in my opinion.

Golf update

Pennlive reports:

One government expense that Elon Musk and DOGE have not addressed yet is the amount of money President Donald Trump spends golfing.

But, if Musk and DOGE do look at that, well … Trump is reportedly on pace to put an incredible amount of taxpayer money into perfecting his game this year. And that is because, according to HuffPost, Trump has spent an estimated $10.7 million playing golf in the first month of his return to office.

The site said it calculated the cost based off of a 2019 report from the Government Accountability Office that broke down the cost of Trump’s trips to Mar-a-Lago. That report, HuffPost said, said it cost taxpayers $3,383,250 for each trip.

The site said that Trump has golfed every weekend since taking office on Jan. 20 and played golf at his own properties on nine of his first 30 days in office. The site noted that because that report was based on costs in 2017, the costs is likely higher in today’s dollars. It puts Trump on pace to spend well over $100 million golfing in 2025. HuffPost reported that he spent an estimated $152 million, golfing 293 days at his own resorts, during his first term.

Well, guess we know who is running the executive branch day-to-day. It’s not djt. He’s busy golfing. 

Pssst, have I got a deal for you . . . . bend over

Regarding violent resistance: Analysis of MAGA and its asymmetric epistemic advantage

I'm afraid this is another TL/DR post. Sorry. I didn't intend it to be that way, but the seriousness of our situation keeps prodding me to look for answers to complicated questions. At least check out the three key points (bullet points) at the top of the four AI Q&As at the end of the post.

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Threats to Americans under djt and MAGA's corrupt, iron fist regime are rapidly intensifying. Some planned policy goals will literally kill a lot of innocent Americans. For example, deranged MAGA freak RFK Jr. is now pulling the plug on activities related to development and evaluation of vaccine safety and efficacy. arstechnica writes:

Just days after anti-vaccine advocate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. became the country's top health official, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has already pulled back some of its efforts to protect Americans with safe, lifesaving vaccines.

Last weekend, a Washington Post columnist noted on Bluesky that the CDC's effective "Wild to Mild" seasonal flu shot campaign had vanished. The campaign highlighted how the seasonal vaccines can prevent influenza infections from becoming severe or life-threatening.

Meanwhile on Thursday, The Washington Post reported that the HHS told the CDC to indefinitely postpone a meeting of its vaccine advisory committee (the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, or ACIP), which Kennedy has criticized. ACIP, comprised of independent experts, meets regularly to review and discuss vaccine safety and efficacy data and vote on recommendations.

 

One thing that can be said of what MAGA wants to do to public health is that it is not merely aimed at fixing problems. It is aimed at destroying American public health policy and infrastructure. RFK Jr. promised he was going to be guided only by data, but that was a profoundly insulting lie. He could not care less about data. He wants to see thousands of Americans die from infectious diseases.

Violence?

The following is not an assertion that most actors in certain groups are MAGA. It is an assertion  that enough are MAGA and (i) they are now in power, and (ii) unrestrained by laws, morals, inconvenient facts and truths, rationality, good will, common sense, or anything else. The following is not an argument favoring violence. It is my personal assessment of our situation, nothing more.

It is time to contemplate the outbreak of widespread violence. djt and MAGA elites have forced many Americans into untenable positions. The GOP, federal courts (especially the USSC), law enforcement, the rule of law, the Dem Party, the private business sector, and Christianity have all failed and betrayed us, our democracy and our civil liberties. Who or what is left to defend us? The bare majority of Americans who oppose the corrupt dictatorship that djt and MAGA elites are forcing on us leaves opposition with few options. 

Mass demonstrations and protests will not faze djt or MAGA elites in the slightest. Again, who or what is left to defend us? 

Top: djt & MAGA

Bottom: Democracy & rule of law

I do not know how likely widespread violence is. Again, I am not advocating violence. But it does seem increasingly possible that there could be a violent rebellion in the near future. 

I agree with, and have been arguing basically the same the analyses and conclusions that the following four AI deep research Q&As assert, i.e., Perplexity's Deep Research mode and I are in almost 100% agreement. For people who distrust AI and won't read any of it, ignore that and pretend that all of the following analyses have been written by me personally. If you don't want to read any or some of that, here are three key points that come out of these four analyses:

• Violence in resistance to djt  and MAGA literally is killing us, but might backfire, strengthening djt's and MAGA elites' power, while weakening our power and civil liberties.

• Dishonest speech, demagoguery, dark free speech, deceptive/divisive propaganda, or whatever one calls it, is more powerful and persuasive than weak honest speech. There is an epistemic asymmetry in authoritarianism that greatly favors authoritarianism over democracy. As I posted last month, this knowledge dates back at least to Plato and Aristotle in ~400 BC. Here, Perplexity reinvents that old wheel.

• Sometimes demagogue-driven authoritarianism is brittle because they depend on perpetual crisis and can be eroded by their own excesses. We just might have to live through this, even if it kills thousands of us.

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Q1: How plausible is the argument that Trump and MAGA have forced people into untenable positions and widespread violence is the only option left, with the argument articulated like this?: The following is not an assertion that most actors in certain groups are MAGA. It is an assertion that (my first two paragraphs from above pasted into the question) .... 

A1: The resurgence of Donald Trump and the MAGA movement has intensified debates about the stability of American democracy, the role of institutional safeguards, and the potential for widespread political violence. Over the past decade, Trump’s rhetoric, policy initiatives, and alliances with far-right actors have systematically eroded democratic norms, weaponized governmental power, and normalized authoritarian tactics. Concurrently, key institutions—including the Republican Party, federal courts, law enforcement agencies, and corporate entities—have either actively enabled this agenda or failed to mount meaningful resistance. This convergence has created a perilous environment in which marginalized communities, political opponents, and pro-democracy advocates face escalating threats. While the argument that widespread violence is now the “only option” remains contested, the structural conditions for such conflict—state-sanctioned repression, institutional collapse, and the mainstreaming of extremist ideologies—have undeniably intensified under MAGA’s influence.

Erosion of Democratic Norms and Authoritarian Consolidation

The Normalization of Authoritarian Governance
Since returning to office in 2025, Trump has accelerated efforts to centralize power, bypass congressional oversight, and redefine constitutional boundaries. His second inaugural address framed his presidency as a “liberation” from democratic constraints, declaring a national emergency at the southern border to justify sweeping executive actions 3 7. This rhetoric mirrors historical authoritarian playbooks, where crisis narratives legitimize the suspension of civil liberties. Trump’s administration has issued 26 executive orders in its first week alone, including attempts to reinterpret the 14th Amendment’s birthright citizenship clause and militarize immigration enforcement—actions legal scholars describe as “dictatorial theories of presidential power” 7 14. By asserting inherent constitutional authority to override statutes, Trump has effectively positioned the executive branch as unaccountable to legislative or judicial checks 7.

Project 2025 and the Weaponization of Bureaucracy
The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 blueprint has provided a roadmap for embedding MAGA loyalists across federal agencies, ensuring ideological conformity and dismantling institutional independence. Prospective hires undergo rigorous vetting for “MAGA enthusiasm,” including scrutiny of social media activity and demands to recount their “MAGA awakening” 2 13. This purge of non-loyalists—derided as “MAGA commissars” by critics—has paralyzed agencies like USAID, where political appointees have attempted abrupt closures of programs deemed ideologically incompatible 2 13. Such tactics extend Trump’s longstanding grievance against the “deep state,” reframing nonpartisan civil service as existential threats to his agenda.

.... very long analysis ....

Conclusion: Democracy at the Precipice
The argument that widespread violence is inevitable under MAGA rule reflects genuine despair over institutional failures but risks legitimizing the very authoritarianism it seeks to oppose. While Trump’s policies have created structural incentives for conflict—through dehumanization, militarized policing, and partisan capture of the state—history shows dictatorships often crumble under sustained nonviolent resistance. The path forward requires confronting MAGA’s ideological roots: white Christian nationalism, corporate oligarchy, and the myth of neoliberal meritocracy. Whether democracy survives depends not on abstract institutions but on collective courage to defend it—in streets, courts, and every contested space where power resides.

The alternative—resignation to violence as “the only option”—plays into MAGA’s hands, justifying further repression and eroding the moral high ground essential for lasting change. As Trump tests democracy’s limits, the response must be strategic, principled, and above all, rooted in solidarity that transcends the divisions his movement exploits.

Q2: How influential has MAGA-aligned American Christian nationalism been in the attacks on and erosion of democracy and the secular rule of law?

A2: The alliance between the MAGA movement and Christian nationalism has emerged as a transformative force in American politics, systematically undermining democratic institutions and secular governance. By weaving ultra-conservative religious ideology into policy frameworks, judicial appointments, and electoral strategies, this coalition has redefined political discourse, normalized authoritarian tactics, and destabilized the separation of church and state. The convergence of these forces—rooted in ethno-religious identity politics and anti-pluralist governance—has accelerated the erosion of democratic norms and secular legal foundations.

.... long analysis ....

Conclusion: Democracy at a Crossroads
The MAGA-Christian nationalist alliance has reshaped American governance, replacing pluralistic democracy with majoritarian theocracy. Through judicial capture, voter suppression, and cultural demonization, this movement has institutionalized policies that privilege a narrow ethno-religious minority over the broader populace. While resistance persists—via grassroots mobilization, legal challenges, and international scrutiny—the trajectory toward authoritarianism remains alarming.

Q3: You assert that "the argument that widespread violence is inevitable under MAGA rule reflects genuine despair over institutional failures but risks legitimizing the very authoritarianism it seeks to oppose", but that authoritarianism (and corruption) has already been normalized by the 2024 elections that returned Trump and the GOP to power. What more legitimacy do they need? They have all the power.

A3: .... long analysis ....

Beyond Legitimacy: The Naked Power Reality
The Endgame of Post-Legitimacy Authoritarianism MAGA’s trajectory reveals a shift from legitimacy-seeking to raw power consolidation. Key indicators:

1. Personalist Rule: Trump’s installation of family members (Donald Jr. as Senior Adviser, Ivanka as UN Ambassador) and loyalists (Steve Bannon as Chief Strategist) bypasses traditional accountability structures 9.

2. Information Control: FCC revocation of broadcast licenses for CNN and MSNBC (March 2025) under “national security” pretexts completes media capture 15.

3. Paramilitary Integration: Oath Keepers and Proud Boys members now comprise 12% of DHS staff under the “Patriot Recruitment Initiative” 2.

These moves reflect what scholar Juan Linz termed “sultanistic regimes”—systems where personal loyalty replaces ideological or institutional legitimacy.

The Illusion of Inevitability
MAGA’s greatest strength lies in fostering belief in its invincibility. Yet history shows no regime is permanent. The 1986 People Power Revolution (Philippines) and 2018 Armenian Velvet Revolution prove even militarized autocracies can fall to sustained nonviolent resistance.

Current mutual aid networks—feeding 17 million Americans through church basements and community centers—demonstrate grassroots resilience 15. Legal scholars note that 132 sanctuary cities still defy federal immigration orders, while Texas’ Supreme Court rebellion against Trump’s EPA overreach shows federalism’s lingering power 13.

Conclusion: Legitimacy as Theater in the Autocratic Play
MAGA’s post-2024 legitimacy is performative—a stage play where democratic rituals mask authoritarian reality. Like Putin’s Russia or Orbán’s Hungary, the regime requires constant legitimacy theater: staged elections, co-opted courts, and propagandized crises.

Yet as the 2026 midterms approach—with GOP plans to eliminate mail-in voting in 19 states—the façade grows thinner. The true battle lies not in debating MAGA’s legitimacy but in exposing its fictional nature while rebuilding democratic power from below. For in the end, no amount of institutional capture can withstand a populace that withdraws its complicity and reclaims the courage to imagine—and fight for—a different future.

Q4: Some people have been trying to expose the fictional nature of djt and MAGA ever since djt won the GOP nomination for president in 2016. All of those warnings have failed miserably. The power of dishonest speech (demagoguery, divisive lies and slanders, etc.) seems to have overwhelmed the power of honest speech, which problem is made worse by the subversion of honest reporting by most of the professional news media. How can weak honest speech ever overcome the power of the demagogue's dishonest, divisive free speech?  

A4: The Asymmetric Battle: Demagoguery’s Resilience and the Paths to Restoring Epistemic Integrity
The ascendancy of Donald Trump and MAGA-aligned rhetoric since 2016 has exposed a fundamental asymmetry in modern political discourse: demagogic strategies leveraging dishonesty, division, and identity polarization consistently outmaneuver fact-based, pluralistic dialogue. This dynamic reflects not merely a failure of "honest speech" but systemic vulnerabilities in democratic institutions, media ecosystems, and collective psychology that demagogues exploit. To understand how truth-seeking discourse might regain traction, we must dissect the structural advantages of demagoguery and identify counterstrategies rooted in epistemic renewal, institutional reform, and narrative reclamation.

The Anatomy of Demagogic Dominance
1. Crisis of Legitimacy and the Authenticity Paradox
As Hahl, Kim, and Zuckerman Sivan’s research demonstrates, demagogues thrive in contexts where constituencies perceive political systems as illegitimate or unresponsive 3 5. MAGA’s core supporters—largely white, non-urban, and economically marginalized—view institutions (media, academia, federal agencies) as hostile to their interests. Trump’s lies function not as factual claims but as symbolic protests against this perceived illegitimacy 3. When he falsely asserts voter fraud or "deep state" conspiracies, he signals solidarity with supporters’ grievances, rendering factual rebuttals irrelevant. This creates an authenticity paradox: supporters dismiss contradictions because the demagogue’s defiance of norms embodies their resentment toward elites 3 13.

2. Emotional Resonance Over Rational Engagement

Demagoguery weaponizes affective polarization by simplifying complex issues into moral binaries. Patricia Roberts-Miller identifies this as framing politics as a battle between a virtuous "ingroup" (MAGA supporters) and a corrupt "outgroup" (liberals, immigrants, elites) 14 15. Trump’s rhetoric—e.g., labeling migrants "invaders" or opponents "vermin"—activates tribal instincts, making empirical counterarguments seem like attacks on identity 14. Emotional narratives (e.g., "America First") override analytical reasoning, a phenomenon amplified by social media algorithms prioritizing engagement over accuracy 6 9.

3. Institutional Subversion and Media Fragmentation
MAGA’s success stems partly from co-opting institutions meant to safeguard truth. The Federalist Society’s judicial appointments neutered checks on executive power, while right-wing media (Fox News, Newsmax) created an alternate epistemic reality 9 11. Meanwhile, mainstream outlets’ pursuit of "balance" often legitimizes false equivalencies (e.g., treating climate denial as a valid "side") 6. This fragmentation allows demagogues to dismiss unfavorable coverage as "fake news," exploiting declining public trust in media 9.

Why Honest Speech Fails: Structural Barriers
1. The "Truth Decay" Feedback Loop
Rand Corporation’s concept of "truth decay"—eroding agreement on facts—explains honest speech’s impotence. When parties inhabit separate information ecosystems (e.g., MSNBC vs. Breitbart), shared epistemic ground vanishes 6 9. Fact-checking Trump’s 30,573 documented falsehoods becomes futile, as corrections rarely reach his base and, when they do, reinforce distrust in "elite" sources 3 6.

2. The Demagogue’s Asymmetric Advantage
Demagogues face no obligation to coherence or consistency. They can promise incompatible policies (e.g., tax cuts and deficit reduction), blame failures on scapegoats, and pivot narratives daily. Honest actors, bound by factual accountability, cannot match this agility. As the "Checkers speech" showed, emotional appeals (e.g., Trump’s "They’re not after me, they’re after you") bypass logical scrutiny 4 13. (emphasis added)

3. The Attention Economy’s Incentives
Digital platforms reward outrage and novelty, not nuance. Trump’s inflammatory tweets garnered 6.1 billion impressions in 2020—free amplification that honest discourse cannot rival 9. Algorithms prioritize engagement, ensuring demagogic content spreads faster than corrections 6.

.... more analysis ....

Conclusion: The Long Game of Democratic Resilience
Demagoguery’s ascendancy reflects democracy’s paradoxical weakness: its openness to dissent allows anti-democratic forces to exploit its freedoms. Yet history shows demagogues’ reigns are often brittle—dependent on perpetual crisis and eroded by their own excesses (e.g., McCarthy’s downfall post Army-McCarthy hearings).

The MAGA movement’s reliance on gerrymandered minoritarianism and judicial overreach (e.g., Moore v. Harper) masks latent vulnerabilities 3 9. Its 2025 crackdowns—militarized border policies, criminalizing protests—have sparked bipartisan backlash, with libertarians and business elites withdrawing support 9.

Ultimately, honest speech’s power lies not in outshouting demagogues but in patiently rebuilding the civic fabric they tear: local journalism, cross-partisan dialogues, and institutions that visibly serve the public interest. As Habermasian deliberative models suggest, democracy’s best defense is a public sphere where reason and empathy prevail—not through force, but through relentless, collective recommitment to the messy work of pluralism 15.

Center: Democracy, truth & rule of law

Left and right: MAGA's lies & authoritarianism

Regarding djt's threats to annex Canada

Trigger warning: This post is TL/DR for some people. Sorry.

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The AP reported that in a Feb. 9 interview at the Superbowl, djt reiterated his childish, incoherent threat to annex Canada:

djt said he is serious about wanting Canada to become the 51^st state in an interview that aired Sunday during the Super Bowl preshow. “Yeah it is,” he told Fox News Channel’s Bret Baier when asked whether his talk of annexing Canada is “a real thing” — as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently warned. “I think Canada would be much better off being the 51^st state because we lose $200 billion a year with Canada. And I’m not going to let that happen,” he said. “Why are we paying $200 billion a year, essentially a subsidy to Canada?”

In this 1:04 video from yesterday (Feb. 21, 2025), djt goes unleashes a profoundly insulting and threatening screed about annexing Canada. He says Canada can keep "O Canada" as the anthem of the 51^st state. Either he is actually serious about annexing Canada, or he is posturing for trade negotiations. Either way, Canadians can reasonably now see the US as a powerful, aggressive foreign authoritarian enemy.

Lloyd Axworthy, a former Canadian Cabinet Minister and now the current chair of the World Refugee and Migration Council, wrote this open letter about djt's threats:

Canadians now face a stark reality: living beside a powerful neighbor presided over by an uber-President who seeks to erode our sovereignty and absorb us into his imperfect union.

What was once dismissed as a joke or a negotiating tactic is beginning to look disturbingly real. Donald Trump wants Canada – not for our social-safety net, the Charter of Rights and Freedoms or our history of cultural tolerance, but for our resources: our minerals, water, oil and Arctic region.

How far will he go? We already know he’s wielding tariffs as a weapon. We’ve seen his daily insults directed at our leaders, his mockery of our national identity – all well-worn techniques of ambitious autocrats.

We should also brace for a more insidious threat: election interference. With his tech-obsessed ally Elon Musk, Mr. Trump will likely work to manipulate our upcoming election, amplifying far-right candidates and undermining trust in our democratic system. Compared to what these two could unleash, past Russian and Chinese meddling might seem amateurish, just softening us up for the kill.

While the immediate focus is on the tariff war, the larger issue at stake is nothing less than Canada’s survival as an independent state. We must prepare our democracy to withstand the onslaught, and to do that, we should look to Ukraine – as a warning.

In early 2019, then-foreign minister Chrystia Freeland asked me to lead the Canadian observer mission for Ukraine’s presidential election. She recognized this as a turning point in Ukraine’s democratic survival. Upon arrival, the threat was obvious. The Putin regime was working to discredit the election and install its loyalists in key positions. A previous pro-Kremlin Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, had already tried to drag Ukraine back into Russia’s orbit – until Ukrainians forced him out. Yet Russia’s disinformation and intimidation tactics continued.

Ukraine responded with unity, military preparedness and international partnerships. But here’s the sobering truth: despite all its resilience, despite the heroism of its people, Ukraine may soon find itself outmuscled. If Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin negotiate a settlement, Ukraine could be forced into territorial concessions or a weakened sovereignty.

This should serve as a wake-up call for Canada. Ukraine’s struggle shows the dangers of underestimating authoritarian threats, of relying too much on U.S. protection, and of failing to build strong alliances. There are signs that Canadians are already pushing back – boycotting U.S. goods, cancelling winter vacations, voicing their defiance in arenas and grocery stores. But the real test is yet to come. Will we set aside partisan divides, power struggles and media bias to use our election as a unified rebuke of Mr. Trump’s delusions?

Even former prime minister Stephen Harper – no stranger to economic pragmatism – said that citizens should “accept any level of damage” to ensure the country preserves its independence. Five former PMs called for Canadians to fly our flag. 

Parliament must now be recalled, ending its past churlish behaviour to pass an all-party resolution affirming Canadian independence, and asking Canadians to follow suit (and no, there should not be any non-confidence votes at this moment). Active efforts to overcome internal trade barriers must be a provincial priority, not just talking points. There must be reckoning on the financial plight of our colleges and universities following the snafu on international students. The recruitment for our military must be streamlined and peacekeeping restored as a career path. Housing the homeless is an imperative.

Beyond our borders, we must forge new diplomatic and economic partnerships with allies who recognize the danger of Mr. Trump’s autocratic vision. The world order he seeks to dismantle – built on law, co-operation, and stability – must be defended.

Canada should take bold action, starting with Ukraine. We should secure a defence agreement that deepens military ties, including procurement of Ukraine’s advanced drone technology for our Arctic security. No more hand-me-downs from the U.S. We should also signal to European allies, now rattled by JD Vance’s threats to gut NATO, that Canada remains steadfast in its commitments.

Beyond defence, we should help in forging a multilateral effort to fill the void left by America’s retreat from global leadership. Canada has pioneered international initiatives before – on land mines, the International Criminal Court and human rights. Now, we must step up again to combat climate change, corruption and poverty. Our chairing of the G7 meetings this spring is a prime opportunity – and Russia should not be in attendance, no matter how hard Mr. Trump tries to swing an invite.

Ukraine’s experience is not just a lesson in defiance – it’s a cautionary tale. Canada must act now, while we still have the power to shape our own future.

Believe it or not, djt is openly attacking American allies who are sovereign democratic nations. He threatens to impose dictatorship and kleptocracy. The damage djt does to American interests and national security is incalculable.

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For readers not already at the TL/DR stage.

 

Why is he doing this?

A Perplexity search using China's DeepSeek AI (my first search with it):

Q1: What are the most plausible reasons for Trump threatening NATO and democracies like Canada? Is it mostly a matter of him being a dictator and hating democracy and the rule of law? Or is it that he is mentally very ill, e.g., he is emotionally childish and thin skinned and angry at criticisms? Or is it some combination of those and other causes?

A1: Donald Trump's threats against NATO and democracies like Canada stem from a complex interplay of his political strategy, personality traits, and ideological leanings, as evidenced by his rhetoric, policy actions, and expert analyses. Below is an assessment of the contributing factors:

Authoritarian Tendencies and Disregard for Democratic Norms
Trump’s actions reflect a pattern of undermining institutions that challenge his authority, consistent with authoritarian leadership styles:

Hostility toward alliances: He has repeatedly questioned NATO’s value, threatening to abandon collective defense commitments unless members increase defense spending to 2% of GDP 1 10 12. This transactional approach treats alliances as financial bargains rather than partnerships rooted in shared democratic values.

Erosion of rule of law: His threats to prosecute political rivals, weaponize the Justice Department, and deploy the military domestically via the Insurrection Act 9 13 align with authoritarian playbooks seeking centralized power.

Contempt for dissent: Trump’s attacks on media, protesters, and critics—including labeling them “vermin” and “enemies of the people”—reveal a desire to suppress opposition 9 13.

Personality Traits: Narcissism and Emotional Reactivity
Psychological analyses and observed behavior highlight traits that fuel his confrontational stance:

Malignant narcissism: Experts describe Trump as exhibiting “grandiose self-importance,” “vengeful destructiveness,” and a lack of empathy 5 6. His threats against Canada (e.g., proposing tariffs or annexation) often followed perceived slights, suggesting a retaliatory streak 2 11.

Thin-skinned reactivity: Trump’s sensitivity to criticism drives punitive policies. For example, his tariff threats against Canada emerged after disputes over immigration and defense spending 2 14, while his NATO remarks often followed complaints about “unfair” burden-sharing 1 10.

Cognitive concerns: Over 230 mental health professionals have flagged signs of cognitive decline, including diminished verbal fluency and impulse control, which may exacerbate erratic decision-making 6.


Strategic Objectives: Leveraging Chaos for Gain
Trump’s threats also serve pragmatic goals:

Extracting concessions: By destabilizing alliances, he pressures NATO members to boost defense budgets and secures leverage in trade negotiations (e.g., using tariffs to force Canadian compliance) 8 14.

Strengthening autocratic alliances: His admiration for dictators like Putin and willingness to negotiate unilaterally with Russia suggest a preference for deals with strongmen over democratic consensus 3 10.

Domestic political mobilization: Polarizing rhetoric (e.g., framing Canada as a “military free-rider”) rallies his base by portraying him as a disruptor of “globalist” elites 14.

Combination of Factors
The interplay of these elements creates a feedback loop:

1. Authoritarian instincts drive a desire to dismantle checks on executive power.

2. Personality traits amplify confrontational tactics, often in response to perceived disrespect.

3. Strategic calculus exploits instability to extract short-term gains, even at the cost of long-term alliance cohesion.

For example, Trump’s threat to encourage Russian aggression against NATO members 1 10 served both to punish allies and position himself as a “dealmaker” who could strong-arm concessions. Similarly, his tariff threats against Canada 2 11 combined economic coercion with personal pique over policy disagreements.

Conclusion
Trump’s threats are not solely attributable to mental instability or a dictatorial mindset but rather a confluence of his authoritarian governance style, psychological profile, and transactional worldview. His actions reflect a deliberate strategy to undermine multilateral frameworks in favor of unilateralism, amplified by personal grievances and a propensity for retaliation. While mental health concerns may exacerbate his behavior, the primary drivers appear ideological and strategic, aimed at consolidating power and reshaping international relations to align with his “America First” doctrine.

Q2: In view of the complex realities of national and global politics and the human condition (cognitive biology and social behavior), the assertion that Trump is explained by a "confluence of authoritarian governance style, psychological profile, and transactional worldview", strikes me as a mind or person in power being mentally unstable and a dictator. I take into account factors like Trump's open corruption, lawlessness and laws he supports that are anti-democratic and anti-civil liberties. The dominant traits here arguably are mental instability and a mindset that is both autocratic and kleptocratic.

A2: Donald Trump’s behavior—marked by open corruption, disregard for democratic norms, and authoritarian governance—reflects a dangerous convergence of psychological instability, autocratic tendencies, and kleptocratic self-interest. While multiple factors contribute to his actions, the evidence from his political career and academic analyses highlights patterns consistent with authoritarian strongmen and kleptocrats, amplified by traits of narcissism, impulsivity, and a transactional view of power. Below is a synthesis of the key dynamics at play:

.... long analysis ....

Strategic Chaos and the “Madman Theory”
Trump’s unpredictability serves tactical goals:

Extracting concessions: By destabilizing alliances (e.g., threatening NATO with abandonment), he pressures allies to meet demands while portraying himself as a “deal-maker”7 12.

Enabling autocratic alliances: His admiration for dictators like Putin and willingness to negotiate unilaterally with adversaries undermines multilateral frameworks 7 12.

Domestic mobilization: Polarizing rhetoric (e.g., framing immigration as an invasion) rallies his base by stoking fear of “radical left lunatics” and “globalist elites” 1 13.

This approach mirrors Nixon’s “madman theory,” where irrationality is weaponized to intimidate opponents 7. However, Trump’s blend of impulsivity and kleptocratic self-interest heightens risks of miscalculation.

Conclusion: Autocracy as Pathology
Trump’s actions cannot be disentangled from his psychological profile or kleptocratic instincts. His governance reflects a feedback loop: authoritarian impulses drive power grabs, narcissistic aggression fuels retaliatory policies, and kleptocratic corruption enriches his inner circle. While strategic elements exist (e.g., leveraging chaos for deals), his mental instability—marked by grandiosity, impulsivity, and paranoia—amplifies the threat. As scholars warn, this combination erodes democratic norms and emboldens autocrats globally 2 8 13. The result is a leader whose behavior aligns more with strongmen like Putin than traditional U.S. presidents, posing existential risks to both domestic liberties and international stability. (emphasis added)

Well, those analyses and conclusions are well-aligned with my own view of djt being a mentally deranged authoritarian, kleptocratic monster. 

I have been vindicated by AI!! Therefore, I must be right. 

Regarding djt's vindictive dictatorship

In this 57 second video, djt publicly threatens to withhold all federal funding from the state of Maine. The dispute is over a transgender athlete ban law. He threatened that after Maine's governor, Janet Mills, said she would comply with state federal law. djt responded: "We are the federal law. You better do it (comply with the MAGA law) because you're not going to get any federal funding at all of you don't. .... your population doesn't want men playing in women's sports. .... And enjoy your life after governor because I don't think you'll be in elected politics." 

That is dictatorship, plain and simple.  

So there we have it. If a state fights in court against a MAGA law, djt threatens to withhold all federal funding.

In my vision of American democracy and rule of law, djt's threat constitutes an impeachable offense. But as we all know, impeachment is no longer a viable threat to a Republican president. It will stay that way until the day that another party controls the House and has the votes to impeach in the Senate. For now, that day in nowhere on the horizon. That other party may not be the Dems. 

Inching toward a grand unified theory of politics

Trigger & TL/DR warning: This post is wonky, long and highly speculative. I did not find any research papers that draw the conclusions I postulate here. So, this probably is way out on a limb.

CONTEXT

Universal movement

Lévy walk (left), Brownian 

motion or walk (right)

Brownian motion, a kind of a Lévy walk, is the random movement of particles in a fluid, caused by collisions of small particles, e.g., bacterial cells, with atoms. The phenomenon is named after Scottish botanist Robert Brown, who first observed it in 1827. I first saw Brownian motion in high school when looking at bacteria in water under a microscope. Lévy walking is how movement by many things happen, including subatomic particles, living things, dead things, including fossilized microbes, global warming, and American politics. 

However, when one gets to the scale of a galaxy, galaxy cluster or larger structures, ordered but random motion imposed by gravity and the expansion of the universe negates Lévy walk constraints. Well, at least that's what the boffins say. However, even with structures bigger than galaxy clusters, there's this bit of ambiguity: Although huge web-like structures in the universe suggest some form of Lévy walk-like behavior, the movement within these structures is more akin to a coordinated flow rather than the random, superdiffusive motion of Lévy walks.

An example for humans is taking a walk in the park or elsewhere with a hard, flat surface to walk on. Most steps are fairly uniform, but occasionally there is a longer step in the walk. The longer step happens occasionally and unpredictably, sometimes a couple are bunched together. That is Lévy walking.

Bacterial Brownian motion

bacteria moves when a water molecule bumps into a cell 

Bacterial motility (swimming) toward 

food (the sugar crystal) is not Brownian motion

but nonetheless is a form of Lévy walking

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A recent STD article reported that subatomic particles from colliding atomic nuclei in atom smashers move in a Lévy walk manner:

Particles in high-energy nuclear collisions move in a way that follows a pattern known as Lévy walks, a motion found across many scientific fields.

Named after mathematician Paul Lévy [in his 1937 paper describing the phenomenon], Lévy walks (or, in some cases, Lévy flights) describe a type of random movement seen in nature and various scientific processes. This pattern appears in diverse phenomena, from how predators search for food to economic fluctuations, microbiology, chemical reactions, and even climate dynamics.

Lévy walking in hadronic scattering studied via femtoscopy 

(femtosecond-scale study of the space-time structure of nuclear collisions)

The authors of the Nature research paper write:

The process of Lévy walk, i.e., movement patterns described by heavy-tailed random walks, plays a role in various phenomena, from chemical and microbiological systems through marine predators to climate change. .... In high-energy collisions of heavy nuclei, the strongly interacting Quark Gluon Plasma is created, which, similarly to the early Universe, undergoes a rapid expansion and transition back to hadronic matter. In the subsequent expanding hadron gas, particles interact until kinetic freeze-out, when their momenta stop changing, and they freely transition toward the detectors. Measuring spatial freeze-out distributions is a crucial tool in understanding the dynamics of the created matter and the interactions among its constituents.

Heavy tail vs Gaussian tail (exponential decay)

A Gaussian tail walk is a random walk where the step lengths follow a Gaussian (normal) distribution. This means that the probability of taking a step of a certain length decreases exponentially as the step length increases. The Gaussian distribution is symmetric around its mean, implying that positive and negative steps are equally likely.

A heavy tail walk such as a Lévy walk is characterized by step lengths that follow a heavy-tailed distribution, where the probability of taking a very long step is higher than in a Gaussian distribution. The tails of heavy-tailed distributions decay slower than exponentially, meaning that extreme events (very long steps) occur more frequently than expected under a Gaussian distribution. Some heavy-tailed distributions have infinite variance or even infinite mean, leading to a higher likelihood of extreme events, e.g., bouts of extremism politics.

To test for the presence of Lévy walks biologists and ecologists partition telemetry data into sequences of ‘steps’ (bouts of near-unidirectional travel) and ‘turns’ or ‘stops’ that break directional persistence. If the step lengths are Gaussian distributed then the most commonly occurring steps will make the dominant contribution to the overall movement pattern. But this is not the case for Lévy walks. A defining hallmark of a Lévy walk is step-length distribution with a ‘heavy’ tail that decays more slowly than a Gaussian distribution. In a Lévy walk, the longest step dominates at least for a while, dwarfing the contributions from other steps in the movement pattern. 

Linkage to politics: Real or illusion? Maybe real

Never having heard of Lévy walking before I checked it out to see what it is. Being interesting in coming up with a grand unified theory of politics, I checked to see if Lévy walking is relevant to politics. Turns out, it arguably is relevant. Maybe.

For living things, Lévy walking is believed to be the most efficient way to search space and time to find what is needed, e.g., resources such as food and water, a mating partner or room for social change. For some humans, that seems to include an overpowering need to find wealth and/or power. 

T cells in the body search for cancer cells by Lévy walking. Sharks look for food hunt the same way. Climate change happens the same way. From what I can tell humans influence climate and that influence can follow a Lévy walk pattern. That strikes me as a rationale to argue that humans truly are playing Russian Roulette with the climate and environment. In politics, one can envision political change as humans collectively searching for the best outcomes. We get a big change (a long step), e.g., Obamacare, often followed by lots of ripples (short steps), states implementing the new law. 

The bottom line: In my not quite novice opinion, i.e., possibly wrong, bouts of extremism in politics are inevitable. We cannot avoid it. I therefore conclude that extremism such as djt and MAGA are unpredictable and rare, but nonetheless inevitable in human history and evolution. As far as I can tell, this observation provides no specific way to make it go away or block it. But if you look closely at the first image posted at the top, notice that sometimes long steps are clustered somewhat due to the heavy tail. That implies to me that there really could be a major backlash against the authoritarianism, cruelty and corruption that dominates the long step of djt and MAGAism. 

How likely is a major backlash? I do not know. After thinking about politics from a Lévy walk point of view for a while, my intuition is that a backlash (a long step) is more possible than I thought before. But I just don't have a feel for how much more possible. Also, that assumes that a backlash amounts to a long step in a Lévy walk. Short step backlash would probably be insufficient to restore something akin to the pre-djt and MAGA situation. 

Reality check

Q: Can humans searching for the best solution for the human condition, e.g., democracy, authoritarianism, honesty, dishonesty, rationality or irrationality, be seen as a form of Levy walking?

A: Yes, humans searching for the best solution for the human condition, such as democracy, authoritarianism, honesty, dishonesty, rationality, or irrationality, can indeed be seen as a form of Lévy walking. Here's how this analogy applies:

Short Steps and Frequent Adjustments: Incremental Changes: Much like the short steps in a Lévy walk, human societies often make incremental changes to their political, social, and economic systems. These adjustments can be seen in policy reforms, shifts in public opinion, or changes in leadership, reflecting the frequent, small steps of a Lévy walk.

Long Steps and Significant Shifts: Major Political Reforms: Occasionally, there are significant shifts in political systems or ideologies, representing the long steps in a Lévy walk. Examples include the transition from authoritarianism to democracy, the rise of social movements, or the adoption of new economic models.

Fractal Patterns and Complexity: Fractal Nature of Political Discourse: The fractal pattern of Lévy walks, where the movement looks similar at different scales, can be seen in the complexity of political discourse. Political debates, policy discussions, and public opinion often exhibit self-similarity, where the same themes and arguments recur at different levels of detail.

Oh yeah, forgot about the fractal pattern thingy. A Lévy walk fractal pattern is a random movement pattern with a heavy-tailed distribution of step lengths. It amounts to a self-similar fractal structure where the pattern appears similar at different scales. Thus when one zooms in on any part of the walk, one sees a similar pattern of short bursts interspersed with occasional long jumps. Boffins believe that kind of movement is ideal for efficient searching in complex environments. This pattern is often observed in animal foraging behavior. Presumably it applies to politics too (humans foraging for whatever drives them).

Sharks hunt via a Lévy flight movement pattern

 Lévy flight is a special class of movement characterized by many small steps punctuated by longer relocations. As the patterns show little invariance over a range of different scales, the processes associated with these movements are closely linked with fractal geometry.