Ukraine war update: Modern drone warfare

Ukrainian drone operator

“When a tank appears it’s like dropping a plate of food

in front of a table of hungry drone operators”

Putin's unjustifiable war against the Ukraine has taken what appears to be a very dark turn. The NYT reports (not paywalled) that about 70% of injuries and deaths are inflicted by drones:

Left: remote controlled machine gun drone kills on the ground

Right: drone kills from the air by dropping molten metal on people

When a mortar round exploded on top of their American-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, the Ukrainian soldiers inside were shaken but not terribly worried, having been hardened by artillery shelling over three years of war.

But then the small drones started to swarm.

They targeted the weakest points of the armored Bradley with a deadly precision that mortar fire doesn’t possess. One of the explosive drones struck the hatch right above where the commander was sitting.

“It tore my arm off,” recounted Jr. Sgt. Taras, the 31-year-old commander who, like others, used his first name in accordance with Ukrainian military protocols.

Scrambling for a tourniquet, Sergeant Taras saw that the team’s driver had also been hit, his eye blasted from its socket.

The two soldiers survived. But the attack showed how an ever-evolving constellation of drones — largely off-the-shelf technologies that are being turned into killing machines at breakneck speed — made the third year of war in Ukraine deadlier than the first two years combined, according to Western estimates. 

Dropping molten metal on Russian troops

The article points out that war has killed and wounded more than a million soldiers, according to current estimates. Drones now kill more soldiers and destroy more armored vehicles in Ukraine than all traditional weapons of war combined. Nineteen of the 31 sophisticated Abrams tanks that the United States sent to Ukraine in 2023 have been destroyed, disabled or captured. Many of those were disabled by drones. Nearly all of the others have been taken off the front lines because they are big sitting ducks for drone swarms.

Drones armed with shotguns are now shooting at enemy drones. Antiaircraft drones are attacking surveillance drones that fly higher in the sky to monitor troop and weapon movements. To increase the distance they can fly and kill, larger drones serve as motherships for swarms of small drones.

Ukrainian FPV drone operator

Open ground has turned into a killing zone for both Ukrainian and Russian troops. Soldiers have only speed for protection. They use quadbikes and motorcycles to outrun the reaction time of FPV (First Person View) drone operators. It is often impossible to move, but staying in one place is also dangerous. Fortified trench systems are obvious targets. Armored vehicles have been virtually neutralized. Drones that cost a couple of hundred dollars to make and arm can destroy vehicles and weapons costing tens of millions. 

Drones are now being deployed that cannot be radio jammed. They operate by trailing a thin fiber optic cable that is directly connected to the drone operator's screens.

Center & left: fiber optic lines left by drones

Right: Russian drone spinning out fiber cable

Ukrainian soldiers assembling FPV drones 

in a destroyed house near the front lines

Ukrainian drone destroys a tank

Other articles for this post are here and here.

It is hard to imagine the unwarranted hell the Ukrainian people are suffering. And it is all because of Putin's monstrous ego. For djt and MAGA to back away and leave the Ukraine to Putin's tender mercies is literally evil, a ghastly moral stain and a deep betrayal of democracy and the American people.

About egg prices: Price gouging? It's djt's fault

An AP article raised the issue of egg price gouging, Are egg producers inflating prices during the bird flu outbreak to boost profits? The AP article comments that, not surprisingly, egg producers blame the bird flu outbreak for driving prices to record highs. Most experts, whoever they may be, agree that bird flu mostly drives prices. However, some people believe that a few major suppliers are taking advantage of their market dominance to gouge.  

An expert critic, Angela Huffman, commented “dominant egg corporations are blaming avian flu for the price hikes that we’re seeing. But while the egg supply has fallen only slightly, these companies profits have soared.” In addition, there is past bad egg producer behavior. In 2023, a jury found that major egg producers used various means to limit the domestic supply of eggs to increase the price during the 2000s. 

Also, profits have greatly surpassed egg production costs. For example, Cal-Maine Foods reported a profit of $219 million in the latest quarter, with eggs averaging $2.74 per dozen. That is a more than a 100-fold increase from $1.2 million in the quarter before the outbreak when eggs were $1.37 per dozen.

Finally, some consumer advocates found "no evidence of aggressive price competition among the largest egg producers over the past year," suggesting that as Cal-Maine and other 'bellwether' companies raised prices, it provided an "invitation for rival egg producers to tacitly collude with Cal-Maine, forego price competition themselves, and maintain high prices for the entire industry."

Given the intense hostility of djt and MAGA elites toward regulations, one can reasonably believe that corporate collusion everywhere will be on the rise. As the federal government backs away from consumer, worker and environmental protections, most of the released power will flow to special interests who will get increased profit from de-regulation. Collusion and price gouging will become normalized and accepted as business as usual.

How likely is egg price gouging right now? Very likely. It's just free markets doing what free markets naturally want to do. And it's djt's fault for letting it happen. Of course, that should be no surprise to anyone paying attention and not trapped in MAGA's fantasy and illusion propaganda.

MAGA bits: Undermining state courts; Gutting NOAA; Killing federal tech infrastructure

The AP writes:  

Measures in several state legislatures this year have called for new approaches to weaken the power of judges. One would abandon a centuries-old precedent that courts can decide whether laws are constitutional. Another would change how judges are selected.

In 1803 the U.S. Supreme Court established the precedent in the landmark case Marbury v. Madison that courts can find laws unconstitutional.

A Montana legislative committee has voted to reject that concept. It advanced a measure that says the idea that courts alone have the power to decide what laws are constitutional is “a myth” and does not accurately reflect the 1803 ruling. Instead, the GOP-sponsored bill asserts that “no single branch has exclusive power to bind its decisions on another branch of government.”

This MAGA attack might not stop with state courts. On February 15, 2025, JD Vance posted on X, "Judges aren't allowed to dictate the boundaries of the executive's rightful authority." That comment clearly implies a belief that the president's authority isn't subject to judicial review. djt's budget director Russell Vought said during his confirmation hearings in January 2025 that the Impoundment Control Act of 1974  is unconstitutional. That law reaffirmed Congressional authority over federal funding. Vought suggests an interpretation of executive power that would allow djt to withhold funds that Congress has allocated. Right now, djt's actions are directly challenging that congressional power.

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The NYT writes (not paywalled) about gutting NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) which does world-class climate science research and provides weather forecasts to the public:

The firings are expected to cost more than 800 people their jobs, out of a total of about 13,000 staff members, according to two people familiar with the situation ....

“This loss of talent at NOAA is going to set the agency back years and compromise the integrity of missions that directly support human health and safety, economic prosperity and national security,” [a NOAA policy] analyst said, speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution. “This is not a move toward efficiency; it’s a move toward putting Americans in danger every day.”

This is no surprise. Project 2025 singled NOAA out for deep cuts. The Heritage Foundation that produced Project 2025 calls NOAA “one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry.” The document urges that NOAA be dismantled and some of its programs be terminated. 

Project 2025 policy commercializes the National Weather Service, a well-known NOAA function. The NWS provides weather forecasts and lifesaving warnings. Thus, if you want to know if a hurricane or blizzard is coming your way, you'll have to pay to get the info. Who knows, maybe Musk will buy the NWS at a low, low price and charge a high, high price for access to the data. Fair is fair. 

Capitalism’s motto: We only charge what the market will bear, 

unless it can bear more! 👍 

So there we have it climate science denial fans. Global warming research is just a corrupt alarm industry hoax. Stop climate science research and the flow of inconvenient facts, true truths and sound reasoning stops. Easy-peasy, but awfully sleazy. 

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DOGE continues its focused attacks on government agencies and services that protect democracy, the rule of law, consumers, workers, the environment, government efficiency and other things that protect and serve the public interest. djt, Musk and the MAGA thug who runs the GSA (General Services Administration), Thomas Shedd, a mechanical engineer and former Musk employee, has laid off the entire 18F tech support group, about 90 people. 

MAGA thug Thomas Shedd

Until March 1, 18F was a digital services agency in the Technology Transformation Services department of the GSA. 18F employed researchers, website designers, and product managers. 18F built key government services like Login.gov and helping other agencies with their technology needs and cutting government operation costs. However, MAGA thugs Musk and Shedd lied by calling 18F "non-critical." Musk's DOGE also identified 18F as "non-critical." Presumably Musk ordered his former employee to get rid of 18F and Shedd complied.

So now when you go to a government website and it doesn't work, and you get all pissed off and flustered, you can blame (or thank, if you like it) djt and MAGA elites for just doing what they promised to do in Project 2025. Namely they promised to break government, gut the public interest and establish a deeply corrupt dictatorship. That is exactly what they are doing.

Source: 18f.org

Non-critical or standing in the way 

of corrupt MAGA dictatorship?

(standing in the way but on the bright side, now Musk can bid as a 

private contractor for the "non-critical" jobs he got rid of! 👍)

Me? I'm waiting for the announcement that Musk and SpaceX Engineers will be replacing 18F employees. Who knows, maybe Musk will rehire them.

SOTU...

The State of the “Union” (oxymoron) address to the nation is coming up Tuesday night in the U.S.  Word has it that Trump plans to tick off all his personal and many “accomplishments” by way of his signed Executive Orders (and there’s a shitload of ‘em).  Seems like that will (or should) be a major slap-in-the-face to the Republicans sitting there looking stupid, showcasing the ineptitude of the Republican controlled congress (House and Senate).  They haven’t done anything, other than kiss the ring and play sycophants to their newly minted King.

Anyway, here’s the question:

How should the Democrats “behave” at that annual bicameral event?

• Don’t show up?

• Boo at everything Trump says?

• Do a lot of rude and noisy interruptions of Trump's speech (a la Joe Wilson's "You lie!" to Obama)?

• Stand up and turn their backs in unison on Trump, at opportune moments?

• Be nice and polite and civil? (oh my!)

• All wear the Ukrainian flag colors (blue and yellow) in unified democratic support? (Or maybe half Ukranian/half US flag attire?)

• [Your suggestions here]

(by PrimalSoup)

Fight hard as hell now, or keep your powder dry for 2026 and 2028?

My instinct is to fight hard now against each major attack that djt and MAGA elites launch against democracy, the rule law and our civil liberties. Some or maybe most people think that strategy is ineffective. Instead, we should wait to fight at major milestones, e.g., the 2026 and 2028 elections. My instinct isn't empirical analysis. So I asked for an empirical analysis.

Perplexity in deep research mode:

Q: Some Americans are torn between openly opposing Trump and MAGA authoritarianism now vs staying quiet and openly opposing in the months before the 2026 mid-term or 2028 presidential elections? Which strategy is riskier for democracy and the rule law?  

A: The United States faces an unprecedented threat to its democratic institutions, with former President Donald Trump and the MAGA movement openly embracing authoritarian tactics. This has sparked a critical debate: should pro-democracy forces oppose these threats immediately, or adopt a strategic delay until the 2026 midterms or 2028 presidential election?  

1. The Accelerating Pace of Democratic Backsliding Authoritarian movements thrive on incrementalism. Once in power, they exploit institutional weaknesses, rewrite rules, and normalize breaches of democratic norms. Research on competitive authoritarian regimes demonstrates that delays in opposition allow incumbents to capture key institutions—judiciaries, electoral systems, and media—thereby tilting the playing field irreversibly (https://scholar.harvard.edu/levitsky/files/SL_elections.pdf https://www.norc.org/content/dam/norc-org/pdfs/Democratic%20Backsliding%20Panel%20-%20Brief%20-%20English.pdf ). For instance, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán consolidated power by gradually dismantling checks on executive authority over a decade, rendering subsequent opposition efforts ineffective (https://convergencemag.com/articles/maga-authoritarian-rule-or-third-reconstruction/ https://www.forkingpaths.co/p/what-would-authoritarian-america ).  In the U.S., Trump’s second-term agenda includes purging nonpartisan civil servants, weaponizing the Justice Department against critics, and expanding unilateral executive powers through untested legal theories (https://www.bu.edu/articles/2025/is-the-us-in-a-constitutional-crisis/ https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/10/us/politics/trump-constitutional-crisis.html). These actions, if unchallenged, could institutionalize authoritarian governance long before 2026. As the Carnegie Endowment notes, oppositions that wait until backsliding becomes severe face dramatically reduced odds of success—winning only 13% of elections in contexts where liberal democracy scores fall below 0.50 (https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/03/27/bet-on-big-tent-opposition-electoral-coalitions-to-defeat-democratic-backsliding-pub-92044).  

2. The Closing Window for Legal and Institutional Resistance Immediate opposition leverages existing legal and procedural tools to slow authoritarian advances. For example, litigation against unconstitutional executive orders—such as Trump’s attempts to revoke birthright citizenship—has temporarily halted their implementation. However, courts alone cannot safeguard democracy. The judiciary’s enforcement capacity depends on executive compliance, and Trump’s allies, including Vice President JD Vance, have hinted at ignoring unfavorable rulings.  Delaying resistance risks allowing authoritarian actors to reshape the judiciary and legislative frameworks. The Heritage Foundation’s "Project 2025" blueprint aims to install MAGA loyalists across federal agencies, ensuring Trumpism outlives his presidency(https://www.brookings.edu/articles/dangerous-cracks-in-us-democracy-pillars/). Once entrenched, these appointees could neuter oversight mechanisms, making future legal challenges futile. Historical parallels from Poland and Turkey show that delayed opposition often confronts a captured state apparatus.  

The Risks of Strategic Delay 

1. Entrenching Authoritarian Control Delaying opposition until 2026 assumes that democratic institutions will remain intact enough to facilitate a competitive election. This is a dangerous miscalculation. Authoritarian regimes methodically dismantle electoral integrity: gerrymandering, voter suppression, and disenfranchisement tactics escalate over time (https://www.forkingpaths.co/p/what-would-authoritarian-america). By 2026, MAGA-controlled states could certify fraudulent results under the guise of "election integrity" laws, as seen in Georgia’s 2021 voter suppression bill (https://www.brookings.edu/articles/dangerous-cracks-in-us-democracy-pillars/).  Furthermore, Trump’s proposed Schedule F executive order would reclassify 50,000 federal workers as political appointees, enabling a loyalist bureaucracy to manipulate future elections10. Once implemented, reversing such measures requires winning power in a system skewed against dissent—a near-impossible task.  

2. Erosion of Collective Action Capacity Opposition movements require time to organize, fundraise, and build coalitions. Delaying resistance until 2026 risks fracturing pro-democracy forces, as activists lose momentum and donors shift focus. The 2022 IPU report on democratic threats emphasizes that disengagement and polarization—key authoritarian tools—accelerate when citizens perceive resistance as futile.  Psychological studies of authoritarianism also highlight the "spiral of silence," where individuals self-censor dissent if they believe their views are unpopular. Immediate opposition counters this by demonstrating widespread resistance, whereas delay reinforces perceptions of inevitability.  

Comparative Risk Analysis 

1. Immediate Resistance: Risks of Escalation Opposing MAGA authoritarianism now carries risks of violent backlash, legal persecution, and short-term democratic instability. Trump has already incited violence against perceived enemies, and his allies in Congress have threatened to investigate pro-democracy NGOs1920. However, these risks are mitigated by the U.S.’s strong civil society, independent media, and federalist structure. States like California and New York can serve as counterweights to federal authoritarianism (https://magazine.utoronto.ca/research-ideas/culture-society/will-us-resist-slide-into-authoritarianism/ https://www.bu.edu/articles/2024/trump-authoritarian-is-that-what-voters-want/).  

2. Strategic Delay: Risks of Irreversible Damage Waiting until 2026 risks allowing MAGA to consolidate control over the judiciary, electoral systems, and bureaucracy. By then, legal challenges may lack enforceability, protests could face militarized suppression, and elections might no longer reflect popular will. The Brookings Institution warns that delaying opposition in backsliding democracies reduces the likelihood of reversing authoritarianism by 50–70% (https://www.norc.org/content/dam/norc-org/pdfs/Democratic%20Backsliding%20Panel%20-%20Brief%20-%20English.pdf).  

Conclusion: The Necessity of Immediate, Multifaceted Resistance The gravest risk to U.S. democracy lies in underestimating the speed and ruthlessness of authoritarian consolidation. Historical precedents—from Hungary to Venezuela—demonstrate that delayed opposition confronts a captured state, rigged elections, and a demoralized populace. While immediate resistance risks short-term instability, it preserves the legal, institutional, and societal tools necessary for long-term democratic survival.  

Pro-democracy actors must adopt a three-pronged strategy: Legal and Legislative Pushback: Challenge unconstitutional actions in court while pressuring GOP defectors to uphold institutional norms.  

Grassroots Mobilization: Sustain protests, strikes, and voter registration drives to maintain public engagement. 

 Coalition Building: Forge alliances between progressives, moderate conservatives, and business leaders to isolate MAGA extremists.  The 2024–2028 period is not a conventional political cycle but a battle for democracy’s survival. As Protect Democracy’s analysis concludes, "Closing civic space doesn’t always look like tanks in Tiananmen Square...it begins with small precedents that add up". The time to resist is now.

I agree with that analysis. Fight now or maybe forever lose your ability to fight, your democracy and your liberties.

Thoughts about the Ukraine and democracy?

Several news sources suggested that yesterday's meeting between Zelenski and djt probably was a MAGA setup staged to make Zelensky look as bad as possible, while making Russia look good. In my opinion, it was more evidence that djt and MAGA oppose democracy. djt's known pro-Russia and pro-authoritarian sympathies, and the subsequent reactions from both U.S. and Russian officials suggest that the meeting was conducive to making Zelenskyy look bad, while Russia would look better than it really is. The public nature of the confrontation, the harsh criticisms, and the implications for U.S.-Ukraine relations all contribute to this being a MAGA setup.

On 11/6/24, I posted this prediction: The Ukraine will fall to Putin and his brutal vengeance. The slaughter will be savage. All global democracies will be under increasingly intense pressure to go authoritarian. The last stand for global democracy will be Europe's democracies, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and little or nothing else. 

 

Seems like things are on track to make most or all of that true. Maybe one could even say that as of now, the slaughter in the Ukraine already has been savage. 

The Atlantic: It Was an Ambush -- Friday marked one of the grimmest days in the history of American diplomacy.

The Nation: The Most Disgraceful Foreign Policy Spectacle in US History -- Donald Trump and JD Vance tried to humiliate Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday with the whole world watching

Esquire: President Trump Embarrassed Himself, the Nation, and Every Thinking Human on Earth -- In the Oval Office on Friday, Donald Trump and JD Vance behaved like angry children. Volodymyr Zelenskyy acted like a man.