Some Erosion in Support for Trump

The New York Times reports on a poll that indicates that about 6% of the people who supported the president in 2016 say they will not vote for him again in 2020. Another 8% are unsure to some extent. The poll was focused on the six states most likely to be critical for his re-election. For some, they dropped their support shortly after the president was sworn into office in January of 2017. For others, (i) the botched federal coronavirus response, or (ii) the current social unrest, led to their loss of support.

On the flip side, about 2% of voters in battleground states who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 indicated that they will vote for the president in 2020.

Reasons for loss of support vary from coherent to incoherent. The NYT quoted one former supporter as coherently saying “He said he was going to, quote unquote, drain the swamp, and all he’s done is splashed around and rolled around in it.” Another incoherently said “I think if he weren’t such an appalling human being, he would make a great president, because I think what this country needs is somebody who isn’t a politician. But obviously with the coronavirus and the social unrest we’re dealing with, that’s where you need a politician, somebody with a little bit more couth.”

Another former supporter gave a combination of coherence and incoherence, “he was a great businessman, [incoherent]” but in the wake of the killing of Mr. Floyd he reasoned “It was kind of the last straw. It was like, this dude is just in it for himself.[coherent] I thought he was supposed to be for the people.[incoherent]”

Some who will not vote for the president again say they won't vote for Biden, which strikes me as incoherent. That attitude indicates that they see nothing exceptional about the president or his performance that would warrant voting for the only candidate with any chance of winning the election. Obviously, people will disagree over what is coherent here and what isn’t. 

Other than handling of the economy, most defectors disapprove of the president’s performance on every major issue.

As usual, there is a caveat to all of this. This is just one poll 4 months in advance of the election. Some people can and probably will change their minds before then. The fact that the defectors see the president as doing well with the economy indicates that the president can pound away on that issue, despite the fact that the perceptions of a good economy ignore increasing federal debt and an increased trickle up of wealth to wealthy people and business interests.