Why Trump will win a second term

by HARRY PHIBBS
https://www.thearticle.com/why-trump-will-win-a-second-term

Just because you are paranoid it doesn’t mean they aren’t out to get you. Donald Trump is fond of making extravagant attacks on the media for peddling “fake news”. But while we have become familiar with Presidential hyperbole most of the TV networks in the US are unsympathetic towards him in their coverage. But does that mean the polls they commissioned are skewed? I think not. As Peter Kellner has written for this site: “A pollster would go bust if they fixed their results.”

As I write, most of the recent polls have shown Trump trailing his Democrat opponent Joe Biden by around ten points. There is a Rasmussen poll showing a gap of just three points. On the other hand, a Quinnipiac University Poll has Biden ahead by 15 points. It is true that due to the American electoral system last time round Trump won even though Hillary Clinton got a higher national vote share. But she was only ahead by a couple of points.

The Democrats are sure to win California (with 55 electoral college votes) and New York (with 29 electoral college votes) by huge margins. But then if they lose Texas (38 votes) and Florida (29 votes) much more narrowly they find they have millions of votes in the wrong places. It’s a winner takes all system.

This disparity may well be more marked than it was in 2016. Thousands of Americans have been leaving high tax states (such as New York, California and also Connecticut and New Jersey) to move to low tax states (such as Texas, Florida and Nevada.) People decide how to vote for for all sorts of reasons. But these new voters are people who have gone to the trouble of moving house and relocating hundreds of miles to pay less tax. They are more likely to plump for Trump than Biden.

That would only matter in a close result. It might mean that Biden could be ahead by three or four points in vote share — advancing on what Clinton achieved four years ago — yet still lose. But should Biden be ahead by around ten points then he would secure a landslide.

One difficulty for Trump has been the coronavirus pandemic. It’s not just about the confused messaging or the mistakes in the practical management. It’s more that he has found himself on a side of the argument that is unsuited to him. Trump is best suited to exploiting fears rather than appealing for hope. He is the antithesis of his Republican predecessor Ronald Reagan, who exuded sunny optimism and whose campaign commercial proclaimed: “It’s morning in America again.”

Trump was well suited as an insurgent. He message that weak leadership was leaving Americans vulnerable to crime, terrorism, illegal immigration and unfair trade deals resonated. But now he is seeking to downplay fears of coronavirus in order to keep the economy going. That is difficult while the death toll remains persistently high.

Another problem is that Trump’s tone suggests he has more power than he really does under the US federal system. That means that, when there is disorder on the streets, notably over the Black Lives Matters protests, some of his supporters are dismayed that under his Presidency it is allowed to continue.

So far as his personal qualities are concerned, Trump is the least “presidential” president we have ever seen. Some will find his brashness and boastfulness entertaining and candid. Others, including some who voted for him as a protest, might rub their eyes and conclude that for him to be in the White House is some sort of extraordinary accident.

Despite all these difficulties my bold prediction is that Trump will be reelected. Partly that is based on the US economy reviving in the coming months and the coronavirus plague receding — both those propositions are admittedly fraught with uncertainty.

As polling day nears, the focus will be less on whether voters are favourable or unfavourable to Trump and more on the choice between him and Biden. Trump is 74-years-old. Biden is 77. Will Americans feel it is time to make way for an older man? Also, while Biden comes across as a pleasant fellow, he conveys weakness and confusion. Keeping Biden low profile for the campaign surely would not work. Biden will probably lose the TV debates against Trump. But for Biden to refuse to take part would be even worse.

You might not like Trump, but at least he is not a pushover. The warning that the moderate Biden could be manipulated by more radical elements could gain traction. You might prefer Biden to Trump as your next door neighbour, but who could be relied upon to defend the national interest?

It follows that patriotism could well secure Trump victory. The Democrats will struggle if they are regarded as anti-American. Our own General Election last year should give them a warning. Many of the socialist policies that Labour adopted under Jeremy Corbyn were actually quite popular — more spending, renationalisation, tax the rich. The problem was that, under Corbyn, the Labour Party could plausibly be considered to be anti-British.

Trump stood by Mount Rushmore and declared: “Today, we pay tribute to the exceptional lives and extraordinary legacies of George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln, and Teddy Roosevelt. I am here as your President to proclaim before the country and before the world: This monument will never be desecrated these heroes will never be defaced, their legacy will never, ever be destroyed, their achievements will never be forgotten, and Mount Rushmore will stand forever as an eternal tribute to our forefathers and to our freedom.”

In the past, that pride in US history would not have been felt controversial. It’s not that Biden would be considered to approve of pulling down statues of Washington or Lincoln. The question is how firmly he can repudiate those in his team with such sympathies. For Biden to staunchly proclaim his patriotism would risk alienating some of his activists. But any ambiguity on the matter surely disqualifies him. As the culture wars become ever more antagonistic, some on the American left appear to swing voters as anti-American. It would be hard for Biden to win in November if he is tarnished with that image, whatever the polls say.