Why Some Voters Are Flipping Away From Trump

“One consequence of our reliance on old definitions is that the modern American does not look at democracy before he defines it; he defines it first and then is confused by what he sees. We become cynical about democracy because the public does not act the way the simplistic definition of democracy says it should act, or we try to whip the public into doing things it does not want to do, is unable to do, and has too much sense to do. The crisis here is not a crisis in democracy but a crisis in theory.” -- Democracy For Realists: Why Elections Do not Produce Responsive Governments, Christopher H. Achen and Larry M. Bartels, 2016)

One issue that has been of great personal interest is why some people are walking away from supporting the president in 2020. The New York Times has interviewed some more of these folks and reports:

“For many Democrats and independents who sat out 2016, voted for third-party candidates or backed Donald Trump, Mr. Biden is more acceptable to them in ways large and small than Mrs. Clinton was.

Samantha Kacmarik, a Latina college student in Las Vegas, said that four years ago, she had viewed Hillary Clinton as part of a corrupt political establishment.

Flowers Forever, a Black transgender music producer in Milwaukee, said she had thought Mrs. Clinton wouldn’t change anything for the better.

And Thomas Moline, a white retired garbageman in Minneapolis, said he simply hadn’t trusted her.

None of them voted for Mrs. Clinton. All of them plan to vote for Joseph R. Biden Jr.
“I knew early that Trump definitely wasn’t the guy for me,” recalled Mr. Moline, an independent. But when it came to Mrs. Clinton, “I guess I had a bad taste in my mouth from her husband’s eight years in office.” He voted for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, a decision he regrets, and he feels at ease backing Mr. Biden.

The point seems almost too obvious to note: Mr. Biden is not Mrs. Clinton. Yet for many Democrats and independents who sat out 2016, voted for third-party candidates or backed Mr. Trump, it is a rationale for their vote that comes up repeatedly: Mr. Biden is more acceptable to them than Mrs. Clinton was, in ways large and small, personal and political, sexist and not, and those differences help them feel more comfortable voting for the Democratic nominee this time around.

Even as Mr. Biden proposes a significantly bigger role for government than Mrs. Clinton did four years ago, some voters view the Democratic nominee as more moderate compared to how they saw her. And they don’t see him as being as divisive a political figure as they did Mrs. Clinton, despite Mr. Biden’s long record of legislative battles.

‘I didn’t like Hillary — I felt that she was a fraud, basically, lying and conniving,’ said Sarah Brown, 27, of Rhinelander, Wis., who regrets her 2016 vote for Mr. Trump and plans to vote for Mr. Biden. ‘I’m not a super big fan of him, either, but the two options — I guess it’s the lesser evil.’

Polling shows Mr. Biden scoring higher than Mrs. Clinton among a wide range of demographic groups — most notably older voters, white voters and suburbanites. But his advantage is stark among those who sat out the 2016 election or backed third-party candidates. 

Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump, 49 percent to 19 percent, among likely voters who backed third-party candidates in 2016, according to recent polling of battleground states by The New York Times and Siena College. Among registered voters who sat out the 2016 election, Mr. Biden leads by nine percentage points, the polls found. 

Republicans, too, have found Mr. Biden to be a much tougher target. Even now, four years after she last ran for any office, Mrs. Clinton has appeared in more Republican ads attacking down-ballot Democratic candidates than has Mr. Biden, according to data compiled by Advertising Analytics. In the final weeks of his campaign, Mr. Trump has tried to reignite controversy over Mrs. Clinton’s emails, blasting out fund-raising requests with the subject line: ‘HILLARY CLINTON.’”

I have generally shied away from putting much weight on polls because they have been too far removed from Nov. 3. Now that Nov. 3 is about two weeks away, polls start to carry some more weight for me. They will carry more weight for me starting next week.

What worries people?

Once again, I cannot spot a unifying concern among people who are turning away from the president. The concerns that bother me the most center on matters of the his authoritarianism, incompetence, corruption, endless lies (immorality) and toxic demagoguery and social divisiveness (dark free speech or epistemic terrorism). In those things I saw the making of a cruel, corrupt, incompetent tyrant. His supporters see none of that, or are so concerned with their unjustified concerns about being under severe attack, that they continue to support this monster. 

Apparently, the people who have decided to oppose the president in this election also do not see what I see as the major flaws and worries about the president. His endless lies and deceit are never mentioned. The matter of democracy and the rule of law vs. Trump’s authoritarianism and contempt for the rule of law are also never mentioned. His gross incompetence and corruption are rarely mentioned. The only competence related concern is his failure to deal competently with the pandemic.

Clearly, the things I am  most concerned about with politics, most Americans are not. The world of concerns I have compared to people who have flipped on Trump overlap very little.

Once again, human cognitive biology and social behavior is controlling. The NYT article comments on this:

“The quality of Mrs. Clinton’s that emerged as the most appealing in 2016 groups was not her accomplishments but that she had set aside her own ambitions to serve in President Obama’s administration, according to people involved with the campaign.

Winning over female voters entailed walking a particularly tortured path, former campaign aides say.

‘She had to show more experience than they did, but not so much experience that they couldn’t relate to her,’ said Jennifer Palmieri, the communications director for Clinton’s campaign. ‘We kept running into those conflicts in people’s own heads.’

In focus groups conducted by the Biden campaign after he won the party nomination, voters were generally unfamiliar with his achievements but far less conflicted about him personally, strategists said. 

‘Biden didn’t have as much definition as I thought he would have had in the electorate,’ said Steve Schale, a veteran Florida Democratic operative who is chief executive of Unite the Country, a super PAC backing Mr. Biden. ‘They just see him as a nice guy.’”

What are they thinking?

There you have it: ‘We kept running into those conflicts in people’s own heads.’ Some or maybe most women see the role of women as women, not as national leaders. I imagine that some or most men take a dimmer view of women as political, military, social or religious leaders. The Catholic church is on exactly that same page in terms of religious leaders. People see Biden as a nice guy and Hillary as a woman with limits on her place in society. Why Trump supporters do not see him as a very nasty, vicious and/or grossly incompetent guy seems to be grounded in his gender, not his actual personal traits or qualities.

Trying to partially rationalize politics is definitely a very tough nut to crack. Maybe so tough that whatever tool is used to try to crack it will break because it isn't hard enough.

Or, maybe society will get to real equality sometime in the future, but just not now.