The fascist propaganda machine remains unfazed by, and unashamed of, contrary reality

The New York Times writes: 

In the hours and days after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, rattled Republican lawmakers knew exactly who was to blame: Donald J. Trump. Loyal allies began turning on him. Top Republicans vowed to make a full break from his divisive tactics and dishonesties. Some even discussed removing him from office.

By spring, however, after nearly 200 congressional Republicans had voted to clear Mr. Trump during a second impeachment proceeding, the conservative fringes of the party had already begun to rewrite history, describing the Capitol riot as a peaceful protest and comparing the invading mob to a “normal tourist visit,” as one congressman put it.

This past week, amid the emotional testimony of police officers at the first hearing of a House select committee, Republicans completed their journey through the looking-glass, spinning a new counternarrative of that deadly day. No longer content to absolve Mr. Trump, they concocted a version of events in which those accused of rioting were patriotic political prisoners and Speaker Nancy Pelosi was to blame for the violence.

Their new claims, some voiced from the highest levels of House Republican leadership, amount to a disinformation campaign being promulgated from the steps of the Capitol, aimed at giving cover to their party and intensifying the threats to political accountability.

This rendering of events — together with new evidence that Mr. Trump had counted on allies in Congress to help him use a baseless allegation of corruption to overturn the election — pointed to what some democracy experts see as a dangerous new sign in American politics: Even with Mr. Trump gone from the White House, many Republicans have little intention of abandoning the prevarication that was a hallmark of his presidency.

Rather, as the country struggles with the consequences of Mr. Trump’s assault on the legitimacy of the nation’s elections, leaders of his party — who, unlike the former president, have not lost their political or rhetorical platforms — are signaling their willingness to continue, look past or even expand his assault on the facts for political gain.

The NYT quoted one expert, Laura Thornton, director of the Alliance for Securing Democracy at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, as saying “this is happening all over the place — it is so much linked to the democratic backsliding and rising of authoritarian movements. It’s about the same sort of post-truth world. You can just repeat a lie over and over and, because there’s so little trust, people will believe it.”

Not surprisingly, the fascist ex-president blames Pelosi for his coup attempt. He asserts that Pelosi should “investigate herself.” The fascist liar and traitor continues to insinuate that (i) BLM and antifa extremists caused the 1/6 coup attempt, and (ii) corrupt Democrats stole the 2020 election from him. Fascist GOP leadership supports the lies. Although Mitch McConnell once condemned the riot and the ex-president's role in it, he has made no effort to contradict or reduce the lies. 

Other Republican fascists pretend that the propaganda will have no effect on public opinion. For example, Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) said “I don’t think anybody’s going to be successful erasing what happened. Everybody saw it with their own eyes and the nation saw it on television.” If that is true then why is the fascist Republican Party's propaganda machine all in on repeating whoppers over and over and over? Obviously someone influential in the FGOP must believe that repeating lies, e.g., BLM and antifa did it, is an effective propaganda tactic when applied to at least some people.

In view of the evidence in the public record so far, it seems reasonable to estimate that the chance that American democracy and the rule of law will fall to some form of plutocratic or autocratic-kleptocratic fascism in the next 5 years is about 42%. In view of how high the states are, that estimate ought to be terrifying to most people who accept it as a reasonable threat estimate. For most people who don't see that level of threat, the estimate is just not believable and thus not as concerning.

Question: How likely is it that American democracy and the rule of law will fall in the next 5 years to some form of autocratic-fascist dictatorship-kleptocracy, optionally tinged with bigoted Christian nationalist theocracy, ~0%, ~5%, ~25%, ~50%, ~70%, etc.?