Norm Ornstein swings and misses

 I have seldom seen Norm Ornstein be wrong. But I found myself shaking my head at a recent piece he wrote in the Atlantic. The headline reads: “How Far Would a Republican Majority Go? Not just democracy is at stake this fall.” One must be wary of headlines, especially in a clickbait world. But this one seems reasonably on point. Ornstein is arguing that not only would the Republicans likely destroy democracy, but they could also tank the economy. 

He writes:

When it comes to the House, FiveThirtyEight has found that so far, at minimum 117 House Republicans with at least a 95 percent chance of winning are full-blown election deniers or questioners, a good leading indicator of radicalism and a willingness to ignore facts and embrace fantasy. In turn, they are willing, if not eager, to blow up institutions and government itself to accomplish their goals.

. . .The concessions demanded by the new MAGA extremist radicals will be non-negotiable. And this time, if Republicans win, a lot more members will be ready to push us over the cliff—and the speaker, McCarthy, with no ability or willingness to stop their juggernaut. Of course, other major disruptions could occur, including government shutdowns and costly investigations. But it is the tangible threat of default that looms largest.

Hey! Lock your doors at night! Otherwise, someone could break in and murder you in your sleep! And steal your TV!!! Ornstein argues we can’t allow them to break in and steal our TV.

I say let them have the TV. And here’s why:

Republicans are going to take power again. I’m doing my bit to try to prevent it, and so are you. But we’ve got to look soberly at our chances. Republicans’ obvious readiness to destroy our democracy has not been enough to deprive them of the support of half the electorate. The slam dunk case made by the January 6 committee has not noticeably moved the needle on support for the man who attempted a coup d’etat. Overthrowing Roe moved the needle maybe a couple of percentage points but the Republicans are still poised to take over the House; still poised to dominate state legislatures and governorships; still within a heartbeat or two of taking the Senate. Herschel Walker is neck-to-neck with Senator Warnock in purple Georgia. 

It seems clear that no matter how clearly the Republicans while out of power broadcast their intentions to destroy our institutions, the electorate will not consider that disqualifying. And whether in this election, or the next, or the one after, the electorate will give them the opportunity to deliver on that promise.

The glass is already broken. 

It seems to me that’s the reality we need to reckon with. And so. We should be thinking about what happens in the aftermath. And here’s why I think Ornstein is wrong. If a Republican House forces a default, the consequences could be truly catastrophic. It’s possible–though maybe not likely–that such a catastrophe could satisfy the electorate’s bloodlust and wake it from its facist-tolerating fever-dream. Maybe, just maybe, if the Republicans actually destroy our economy, that will be enough to convince voters to turn away. If we escape from our current predicament with only an economic catastrophe, we should consider ourselves most fortunate.

The alternatives are worse.

(opinion by Dan T)