What the science of elections can reveal in this super-election year
Some snippets:
By the end of this year, voters in some 65 countries and regions will have gone to the polls. That means close to half of the global population will have had the chance to cast a ballot of some sort, including almost 360 million people across the European Union. Not all of the world’s political procedures will be free and fair, but this year is still expected to represent the biggest manifestation of the democratic process in history. The geopolitical landscape of 2025 could therefore look very different from that of today, and it will have an impact not just on how science is funded, but also on which international collaborations will flourish or flounder.
In the middle of these swirling democratic processes will be researchers who study public sentiment and voting patterns, known as psephologists. These statistical scientists work both to predict future elections and to understand previous ones.
(Now you know what a psephologist is)
The US presidential election in November is almost certain to be a rematch between President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump. The world’s largest democracy, India, has seen incumbent populist Prime Minister Narendra Modi win a third term in office, albeit in a coalition government. British voters go to the polls next month, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak lagging far behind his opponent Keir Starmer in opinion polls. Member states in the European Union will have elections for the bloc’s parliament this week, and various Australian states and Canadian provinces will hold general elections at some point in 2024.
Research suggests that the voting public in those jurisdictions think that government support for science is important, yet that rarely translates to science policy being a significant issue on the campaign trails.
More than 80% of the polls that track US public opinion are done using online opt-in surveys, according to a 2020 report by the Pew Research Center. In other words, anyone who wants to log on and take part can do so. Not only does that mean that the data are unlikely to be representative, but also it introduces the risk of ‘bogus respondents’ — people who either seek to push their own political narrative or who rush through a survey without paying attention to the questions.
Geopolitical weather
Scientists might also want to take note of psephological predictions, because they offer a glimpse of future government policies relevant to funding and other research interests.
On specific policy issues, the two US presidential candidates differ widely on the environment, with Trump arguing for weaker environmental regulations and Biden pushing renewable energy. Climate change is one of the most divisive topics in the United States; 93% of Democrats agree with the scientific consensus that human activity is warming the world’s climate, compared with just 55% of Republicans, according to a poll carried out by researchers at the University of Maryland in College Park.
Those numbers could shift if the summer is marked by extreme weathers.
(let's all root for a wild summer marked by extreme weather so climate science gets more support).
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