In my opinion, Earth is seriously overpopulated with humans. I recon there are about 4-5 billion too many of us to sustain a good quality of life, the environment and democracy. Unfortunately, there is a major problem with decreasing population. It put serious pressure on democracy. A NYT analysis article (not paywalled) discusses the damage from a declining population that most or all advanced countries are facing:
How a Demographic ‘Doom Loop’ Helped Germany’s Far Right
The Alternative for Germany party came in second in federal elections doubling its vote share from four years ago, on Sunday, doubling its vote share from four years ago, in the strongest showing for a German far-right party since World War II. Some segments of the party, known as the AfD, have been classified as extremist by German intelligence.
How could that happen in Germany, a country whose history has taught a bitter lesson about the dangers of right-wing extremism?
Many experts have pointed to the role of immigration, particularly the surge of Muslim refugees from Syria and other Middle Eastern countries in the mid-2010s, which has persuaded many people to abandon the long-dominant parties of the center-left and center-right.
But new research suggests an additional factor. The AfD posted its biggest wins in the former East Germany, where young people have been moving away from former industrial regions and rural areas to seek opportunities in cities. For years there has been a very strong correlation between the level of out-migration and the level of AfD support ....
The article points out that East Germans expected a post-unification peace dividend, but that never happened. On top of that, austerity measures and cuts to local services triggered support for far-right populist parties. Other Eastern European countries had a few years to adjust their economies before joining the European Union in 2004, but eastern Germany got had no time for economic adjustments. People with human capital would leave, leaving behind a lot of other people. Those left behind were disproportionately from the demographics most likely to support the AfD and extremism. People in the left-behind regions are radicalizing into far right extremist, authoritarian politics.
So what? That's Germany, this is the US!
The left-behind phenomenon in the US and Germany have strong parallels. Rural US communities are facing demographic shifts, federal policy disconnects, and a perceived moral decline. That makes disaffected people open to political radicalization, just as is the case in Germany. In the US and Germany, economic prosperity gravitates toward the cities, leaving rural areas unequal. The loss of manufacturing jobs and agricultural consolidation hollowed out rural economies in both the U.S. Midwest and Germany's eastern states. U.S. rural areas face systemic underinvestment. In the US, 60% of "persistent poverty counties" are rural. Those disparities amplify narratives of federal neglect. That is a theme weaponized by groups like the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys. They frame themselves as defenders of "forgotten" communities. In American Appalachia, 43% of counties lack community mental health centers. That enables crackpot conspiracy theories to fill knowledge voids.Population declines in Japan and Europe mirror Roman Empire fertility patterns. Aging populations strain healthcare and pension systems. Some research indicates (and this) that modern states face added risks from climate change and energy scarcity, which could trigger synchronous collapses. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic’s negative effect on labor markets and supply chains demonstrated how demographic disruption can be a potent threat.
Population loss is a separate but overlapping phenomenon from economic shifts from rural to urban areas. It has historically been part of the story of the collapse of great civilizations. In the past, high populations depleted environmental resources, which in turn put pressure on governments and societies. In one study, 10 of 12 empire collapses was found to be accompanied by an interplay between environmental degradation and population decline. Although historical collapses were regional, globalization created new kinds of interdependencies between nations. That creates new possibilities for global civilization disruptions, maybe even collapses.
Translated into MAGA politics and policy
At present, it seems very unlikely that MAGA's authoritarianism and deep corruption are going to significantly improve the rural poverty situation or the decline in rural economies. Without major immigration, US population would decrease. Now that MAGA is blocking large-scale immigration, one can expect the US population to level off and then slowly decline.
In the past empires have had a very difficult time dealing with environmental damage and ensuing population decline. Given that US politics is mostly reactive and not proactive, and often incompetent or corrupt, the same can reasonably be expected here.
Counterintuitive as it is, the most likely upshot is that under MAGA, unhappiness in most American rural areas will continue to simmer unabated. MAGA simply does not care about regular people. Rural Americans will probably continue to further radicalize into extremism and authoritarianism. If nothing else, MAGA knows how to effectively deflect blame from itself onto anything or anyone else that it chooses to blame. That's pretty much like what is going on in Germany now.
