A post here yesterday, In the minds of rural Trump supporters, discussed (1) the difficult social and economic situation that many rural areas face, and (2) continuing staunch support that most rural voters still have for djt and his painful policies, including tariffs. This post considers if tariffs will work and why rural voters remain loyal to djt and his policies.
Demographics
Rural America faces major structural and demographic challenges that go far beyond normal cyclical economic downturns. Current research indicates that 91 percent of rural counties lost prime working age population from 2010 to 2019, with 51 percent losing 10 percent or more. Economic indicators are also not good: the average poverty rate in rural areas is nearly three percentage points higher than in non-rural areas (16.4 percent versus 13.5 percent), with the most significant disparities concentrated in the South. The biggest age cohort in rural America is 55-64, compared to 25-34 in non-rural areas9, indicating a fundamental demographic inversion that undermines long-term economic sustainability. These changes result from "advances in technological innovation and automation, declines in the extraction of certain energy resources, increases in globalization, and a shift to the 'knowledge-based' economy" that disproportionately affected rural communities.
Tariffs
Current evidence indicates that djt's tariffs are harming rural economies. The agriculture sector faces serious vulnerability to tariff-based trade wars. djt's 2018 tariffs and the ensuing trade war caused hundreds of farm bankruptcies and wiped out tens of thousands of small farms. The pattern is repeating, as "his 2018 tariff tantrum caused a farm crisis, leading to government bailouts for Big Ag corporations" while smaller operations suffered disproportionately.
A fundamental challenge facing tariff-based manufacturing revival is in changed economic structures. Even if new mills and factories were built, they would still need to import materials from abroad. Those would be subject to tariffs and thus pricier. This reality contradicts the logic of tariff-driven industrial policy. Also, almost 8 million Americans work in industries targeted by foreign retaliatory tariffs, with the majority being Trump voters. This strategic targeting by foreign governments creates political pressure by harming Trump's electoral base, but it also shows the vulnerability of rural economies to trade conflicts.
djt's federal spending cuts will impede rural revitalization. Rural communities depend heavily on existing federal programs for basic infrastructure, healthcare, and economic development support. djt's proposed cuts target programs essential to rural functionality, e.g., his budget eliminates USDA support for water and wastewater infrastructure projects for communities with populations of 10,000 or less. The USDA funded nearly 6,000 projects providing safe water to 20.7 million rural residents since 2009, djt's cuts eliminate critical water infrastructure necessary for any rural economic development. Also, opioid addiction epidemic is crippling in rural America.
djt's policy priorities show a disregard for rural well-being. Farm bailouts during his first term sent most of the funds to the largest farms and agribusinesses. That accelerated corporate consolidation while family farms collapsed. So far, djt's response has cut off funding for rural health care services. Other proposed cuts eliminate support for small-town airports, economic development, education assistance, and even weather and safety alerts on rural broadcast stations. Claims of economic revitalization in the face of those conditions is a cruel, cynical hoax.
So even if tariffs generated vast amounts of money, djt is not willing to spend it in rural areas. On top of that, those tariffs will increase consumer prices. Under djt and MAGA politics, rural America is seriously screwed.
Bottom line: djt's claims that tariffs will restore rural America are false.
Another problem: Just like Repubs and MAGA policy, Dems cannot revitalize rural areas either. The structural problems are far too great for the return of 1950s-1960s levels of rural prosperity and reasons for pride. Rural revitalization in America is a mirage. Either some sort of a managed, respectful rural transition or continuing misery and poverty are far more realistic outcomes, at least in theory. But with autocratic djt and authoritarian MAGA elites in power, a managed, respectful transition for rural areas to something else better is impossible. So, for the foreseeable future, continuing misery and poverty are to be expected. Also to be expected is continuing rural support for djt and increasingly painful MAGA policies.
Why they still support him
In focus groups with djt voters, participants generally used the word "extreme" about his language and leadership style, and most of them liked that he threw around threats against foreign adversaries or took a hard line on issues. Despite many djt voters acknowledging his failures, most are still strong supporters. Symbolic representation matters more than bad policy outcomes. djt's relentless demagoguery and lies have led most of his supporters to see congress's primary function as endorsing the president's initiatives. They have little tolerance for Republicans who stray from party orthodoxy.In terms of cognitive biology, djt supporter pride manifests as resistance to acknowledging dependency on federal programs that will be cut. Rural communities tend to love harsh anti-government rhetoric, while relying heavily on government services. The cognitive dissonance that pride generates makes it difficult or impossible to resolve by rational analysis or policy.
Bottom line: rural support for djt is rooted mostly in cultural identity and symbolic politics, not in rational analysis or policy. Rural supporters are highly tolerant of policy failures when they feel loyalty and cultural alignment with djt. Traditional economic appeals are simply insufficient for any major political realignment. At least for the time being, most rural voters seem to be locked by pride, loyalty and identity into solid support for djt and MAGA politics and policies. Concerns over democracy, the rule of law and civil liberties are not a significant issue.