Available evidence strongly argues that Trump’s personality matters, but not in a way that is easy to use for analysis. Calling him greedy, vindictive or mendacious often feels (or is) true, but those labels do not reliably predict what he will do next. Not surprisingly, a better approach is to watch his behavior. The evidence shows that what he says, what he posts, and how he acts when he thinks there will be no pushback is what to focus on. Link 1, link 2
The example of Greenland clearly shows this. If you say that "Trump is greedy", that explains why he might want Greenland, but not whether he will actually try to act on it. By contrast, concrete signals such as public humiliation of allies, his symbolic social media posts, and changes in tone after market reactions, all give significant clues about his intentions. The point is that these visible actions are more useful than guessing about hidden traits. Link 3, link 4
Based on his behaviors, one can argue that his base is not a significant source of constraint. Instead of limiting him, Trump uses supporters as a kind of permission structure where their loyalty makes his actions feel acceptable and energizes his image. For the most part, his supporters do not direct or limit him. Even well-known MAGA figures like MTG get pushed aside when Trump decides to redefine the movement around himself.
In short, support flows from his supporters to Trump, but he does not support them. Instead, as discussed here before, the overwhelming majority of Trump and MAGA elites' significant observable actions in government have attacked or weakened the legal and constitutional protections. Those protections used to shield and defend ordinary people from kleptocratic abuses and authoritarian oppression. Now our protections are fading away. Trump supporters in no way are preventing the rise of Trump's corrupt dictatorship. Knowingly or not, they encourage it. Link 5, link 6, link 7, link 8, link 9
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