The “I would like you to do us a favor, though” heard ‘round the world...

Due to a courageous government official whistleblower, Donald Trump, in his believed defense, felt compelled to release a copy of the now infamous July 25th phone call transcript  between himself and President Zelenskyy of Ukraine.  In what Trump referred to as “a perfect call,” the W.H. disseminated a copy of the call memo that was not a verbatim likeness (see memo footnote), and with three curious ellipses of missing, possibly relevant context.  When the W.H. was asked for the originally transcribed memo, members of the media were told it had been “mistakenly” locked away in the super secret W.H. server, reserved for only the most classified of material.  To our knowledge, that original memo remains there, in that server, to this day.

Though only a “reproduction” rather than an “exact” copy, the contents of that incomplete memo has led to the House of Representatives successful impeachment of Trump, to wit the following articles were forwarded to the US Senate for their consideration...

The articles of impeachment against Trump are two:

I … Abuse of Power

II … Obstruction of Congress

Re: Article 1

It is a fact that Trump overtly sought personal assistance from a foreign government, Ukraine, in the form of an announcement of an investigation into, not just some random person, but in particular Trump’s political rival, Joseph R. Biden, in exchange for Trump’s releasing of $391million of bipartisan-approved military support against Ukraine’s war with Russia, along with a much-coveted W.H. visit by Zelenskyy.

Re: Article II

It is a fact that not one requested W.H. document was handed over to the House Managers *and* several relevant witnesses were instructed, by Trump, to not comply with House subpoenas, though some conscientious witnesses defied Trump’s instructions and came forth with their sworn, albeit somewhat damning, testimony.

Regarding Article I, the suspicious part to most people is, rather than using the full force and powers of the greater U.S. Intelligence Communities, Trump used his private/personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani and associates, to persuade Ukraine to undertake Trump's request of these investigations.  That's highly unheard of and takes on a reasonable appearance of "abuse of power," per the constitution.

In spite of what damning evidence against Trump has come forth thus far, and is sure to come out as this year proceeds toward the November, 2020 U.S. elections, Mitch McConnell strives to keep his Senate caucus together in an acquittal of Trump. As of today, so far, so good, for Mitch.  Things are looking promising that this trial will end before Super Bowl Sunday, and the president's Tuesday SOTU address. 

 

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Here are the questions for your consideration:

1. If Trump is acquitted, has our constitution been weakened for all time by Trump's behavior, and a new precedent has been established, allowing any future POTUS to ask for foreign interference in U.S. elections, without the threat of recrimination?

2. If acquitted, how will the history books look back on this moment in time? Will it be that the U.S. Constitution, and those who promote it, indeed swear to uphold its values, have failed to live up to its supposed/believed idealism, and as something to hold up for all struggling democracies to aspire to?

3. If a POTUS can’t be impeached and removed for this specific behavior, what exactly can a POTUS be impeached and removed for?  What does it take? Give some examples. 

4. Do you think that, if Trump is acquitted, he will try this kind of thing again?

5. Will Trump’s acquittal help or hurt his re-election chances?  Give your predictions.

Thanks for posting and recommending.

The Rationale for Impeachment

Democrats have decided to open an impeachment inquiry based on revelations about the president allegedly trying to extort Ukraine into investigating Joe Biden. They cite the clarity of the case and point to public confusion over existing evidence of possible impeachable actions by the president. The New York Times describes the rationale:

“The sudden embrace of an impeachment inquiry by previously reluctant House Democrats — most notably Speaker Nancy Pelosi — is attributable to one fundamental fact: They believe the new accusations against Mr. Trump are simple and serious enough to be grasped by a public overwhelmed by the constant din of complex charges and countercharges that has become the norm in today’s Washington.”

Public confusion and political blowback from that confusion was what held the democrats back. The confusion is a direct result of the power of dark free speech[1] to confuse, polarize and mislead whole societies.

The impeachment process

If enough lawmakers in the House vote to say that a president committed “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors” the president will be impeached and possibly removed from office if enough Senators agree.

The term “high crimes and misdemeanors” originated in British common law. It constituted offenses that Parliament cited in removing crown officials. In essence, it is an abuse of power by a high-level public official and not necessarily a violation of any criminal law.

No president has been impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate. Nixon resigned before he could be impeached. The House impeached Andrew Johnson in 1868 and Bill Clinton in 1998, but the Senate acquitted both. They went on to complete their time in office. The House impeaches by  a majority vote, but the Senate must convict by a two-thirds vote supermajority.

Although the constitution states that the Senate must hold a trial after the House impeaches, there is no enforcement mechanism. Mitch mcConnell could simply do nothing and the process would die. On the other hand, since the Senate can set the rules for an impeachment trial, they could rig the process to be minimally damaging to the president by limiting what evidence could be considered. It is also important to understand that, even if the Senate did convene a trial, the Republican majority could vote to simply dismiss the case without considering any of the evidence. Regardless of Senate rules or actions, the possibility of 66 Senators voting to impeach the president is nil. That assessment is based on the intense hate and distrust the two parties have for each other.

The important point is that impeachment is a political process more than a legal one. In legal proceedings, most or all relevant evidence and fairly well-defined laws are important. In impeachment, tribe loyalty can negate the evidence and the ill-defined impeachable offenses, treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors, helps make it easy to simply ignore evidence that the tribe in power in the Senate does not want to consider.

Polarization

In the Federalist Papers in 1788, Alexander Hamilton asserted that the inherently political nature of impeachment proceedings would polarize the country. An impeachment prosecution “will seldom fail to agitate the passions of the whole community, and to divide it into parties more or less friendly or inimical to the accused. In many cases it will connect itself with the pre-existing factions, and will enlist all their animosities, partialities, influence and interest on one side or on the other; and in such cases there will always be the greatest danger that the decision will be regulated more by the comparative strength of parties, than by the real demonstrations of innocence or guilt.”

Thus, despite how polarized Americans are now, it is possible that it could get worse. Given the fact that the Senate will not convict, maximum polarization might be avoided.

Footnote:
1. Dark free speech: Constitutionally protected (1) lies and deceit to distract, misinform, confuse and/or demoralize, (2) unwarranted opacity to hide inconvenient truths, facts and corruption (lies and deceit of omission), and (3) unwarranted emotional manipulation (i) to obscure the truth and blind the mind to lies and deceit, and (ii) to provoke irrational, reason-killing emotions and feelings, including fear, hate, anger, disgust, distrust, intolerance, cynicism, pessimism and all kinds of bigotry including racism. (my label, my definition)

To impeach or not to impeach... that is the question.

A friend and I were discussing Trump's possible impeachment, on another blog.  While s/he thinks Trump should be impeached for ethical reasons, I imagined how that might play out:

As a progressive democrat, I also think Trump deserves impeachment for what I see as his unstable actions.  So I wonder, do we democrats do the ethical thing and formally address his seemingly bad behavior with impeachment proceedings?  Or do we do the practical thing and let him keep destroying himself and his credibility, daily, to our political benefit? It really seems to come down to those two options.

Let’s say the Democratic House formally impeaches, but the Republican Senate doesn't convict. That likely riles up his base, getting the “feels sorry for ‘poor persecuted’ Trump” crowd and the “we’ll show ‘em” crowd even more indignant and pissed off, as Trump emboldens and encourages them, via his tweets and rallies. His supporters come out in force for the 2020 election, and Trump not only gets four more years, but maybe a complete republican congress again, to back his policies. Then, for Trump and McConnell, the sky's the limit... and then some! No holds barred! The statute of limitations has expired on Trump's previous actions, and he can no longer be held legally responsible (by a powerless democratic minority) for his so-called "wrongdoings." Plus, a new precedent has been set as to how a POTUS can act and what s/he can get away with. Yes, a lot of tentacles, as always. Many alternate scenarios can play out, granted.

Barring something coming out of the (semi) blue (e.g., he has a heart attack and dies [btw, look for a "fake one" for next year's October's surprise], or he up and quits, or he’s proven to be involved in a scandal of inescapable and monumental proportions, or he manages to get republicans to finally turn against him, openly and in force, etc.); barring such events, we have 14 official months (16 if we count lame duck period) of him to still put up with.  "God help us" in those two intervening months!

Our country is already a political mess, IMO.  We're losing worldwide support from all our allies who no longer trust us, plus all the other problems festering out there. I’m thinking, just wait it out and hope not to stir his hornet’s nest of followers into reacting in his favor, and hope a democratic administration takes over (i.e., gets their chance to mess things up too ;).

But it’s really difficult (at least for me) to guess which way to go: To do the (ethically) right thing, or to do the practical (selfish) thing? IDK.

What is your opinion?  Should Trump be impeached?  Please present your argument(s).  And thanks for recommending.