Etiquette



DP Etiquette

First rule: Don't be a jackass. Most people are good.

Other rules: Do not attack or insult people you disagree with. Engage with facts, logic and beliefs. Out of respect for others, please provide some sources for the facts and truths you rely on if you are asked for that. If emotion is getting out of hand, get it back in hand. To limit dehumanizing people, don't call people or whole groups of people disrespectful names, e.g., stupid, dumb or liar. Insulting people is counterproductive to rational discussion. Insult makes people angry and defensive. All points of view are welcome, right, center, left and elsewhere. Just disagree, but don't be belligerent or reject inconvenient facts, truths or defensible reasoning.

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

What is going on in the Democratic Party? What is democratic socialism?

The Dem Party split
A NYT analysis of the primary for New York mayor indicates that there is deep confusion and division in the Democratic Party (DP). Way back in 2016-2017, I used to think that the rise of Trump in the GOP would split that party in two. Boy was that wrong. Now it is seriously looking like Trump, MAGA elites and their demagoguery, deceit, slanders and crackpottery is gonna split the DP in two. The NYT writes (not paywalled): "A New Political Star Emerges Out of a Fractured Democratic Party -- The emergence of Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, is likely to divide national Democrats, who are already torn about what the party should stand for. .... That Mr. Mamdani had such success while running on a far-left agenda, including positions that once were politically risky in New York — like describing Israel’s actions in Gaza as genocide and calling for new taxes on business — may challenge the boundaries of party orthodoxy and unnerve national Democratic leaders. .... “There is no doubt that Trump and Republicans will try and seize on him as a kind of exemplar of what the Democratic Party stands for,” Mr. Axelrod said. “The thing is, he seems both principled and agile and deft enough to confront those sort of conventional plays.” .... The National Republican Congressional Committee gleefully declared Mr. Mamdani the “new face of the Democrat Party.” " (emphasis added)

Yup, there is absolutely no doubt that divisive, demagogic Trump and MAGA propaganda are gonna have a field day with this. They have already started their dark free speech fun 'n games.

Meanwhile, the DP establishment is in a state of shock that their guy, Andrew Cuomo lost, and lost hard to a democratic socialist. This looks like the beginning of either a true DP split into two warring groups, or a rejection of the established leadership and its neoliberal politics. Warring groups seems to be more likely than rejection and replacement of the establishment. A third party is very unlikely. A broken DP seems to be the most likely outcome at present (and subject to change). 


What is democratic socialism (DS)?
Democratic socialism is a political and economic philosophy that advocates for political democracy alongside social ownership or control of the means of production. The ideology combines democratic political systems with socialist economic principles, seeking to achieve fundamental changes to capitalism through democratic processes rather than by revolution.

Although we can confidently expect MAGA demagoguery to say otherwise thousands of times, Democratic socialism is different from Marxism–Leninism, which is authoritarian and anti-democratic. DSs oppose Stalinism and the Marxist–Leninist economic planning system. DSs advocate for systematically transforming the economy from capitalism to socialism where the state owns essentially all means of production. 

Democratic socialists argue that capitalism is inherently incompatible with the values of freedom, equality, and solidarity, and that these ideals can only be achieved through the realization of a socialist society. The ideology emphasizes economic democracy, workplace democracy, and workers' self-management within various forms of socialist economic organization.


Rut roh, a wabbit hole


DS vs SD vs Capitalism -- A damaging overreaction?
All of the following was informed by a series of Qs to Pxy with varying complexity that provoked a series of mostly complex responses, all of which are fully available at this link

What New Yorkers voted for is a DS politician who is maybe about an 8 on a 1-10 scale of socialism, with 10 being pure socialism and 1 being unregulated capitalism with oligarchy. I doubt that most of those voters really understood what they were voting for or how damaging a major DS politician is likely going to be for the DP. The message they constantly heard from Mamdani was economic relief for the lower classes. That is something that most MAGA rank and file voters also very much want.  

For context, there is an intermediate kind of socialist political-economic ideology that very likely has a far better chance of gaining traction with the public than DS. It is called social democracy (SD). SD is maybe about a 6 on the 1-10 scale. Pxy analyzed and compared key DS and SD traits and summarized it in the table below.




In one question, I asked Pxy to evaluate the two paragraphs of text above for reasonableness. It said the socialism estimates were reasonable. But it pushed back on my assertion of (1) New York voter ignorance, and (2) coming deep discord in the DP. My assessment of a likely major split in the DP is possible but not certain. My assertion of voter ignorance stands as mostly correct after Pxy reassessed the issue. 

Yes, this is just one set of Qs&As with Pxy. The overall analysis of trouble in the DP could be more wrong than right. Other framing of the issues could lead to different responses. According to Pxy, the socialists in the DP will probably have a hard to impossible time reconciling with the neoliberals. There's the possible DP split.

Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Another short story: The Empathy Enhancement

Here's my latest attempt at short story writing, this one reflecting on Climate Change and a desperate  attempt to deal with the problems of  political inaction, selfishness, greed and other obstacles to making sound policies before it's just too late to prevent catastrophic outcomes. Thanks for reading!

The Empathy Enhancement

The helicopter banked left over what had once been the Upper West Side, and Dr. Sarah Ross pressed her face to the window. Nine stories below, murky brown water lapped at the facades of buildings that had once housed millions. Makeshift boats drifted between submerged traffic lights and street signs, their occupants—former New Yorkers who'd had nowhere else to go—paddling through what had been Broadway with pieces of debris. Disease was rampant down there in the toxic soup of floodwater, sewage, and human desperation. Sarah, as she often did, looked in desperate agony at the faceless vagrants below, wondering how many of them she recognized from her old neighborhood, and if any of them might in fact be her child who had gone missing during the floods and was presumed dead. Her husband, eminent climate scientist David Ross, seemed almost oblivious to the squalor below.

"Approaching the UN building, Dr. Ross," the pilot called back. "Landing on the roof in two minutes."

Below them, the East River had merged with the Hudson to create a vast inland sea that stretched from the Bronx to Brooklyn. The United Nations building rose like a modernist lighthouse from the waters, its glass facade streaked with mold and water damage. Only the top fifteen floors were habitable now. This was where the world's remaining functional governments had relocated their most urgent climate negotiations—and where Sarah spent her days trying to provide therapy to leaders whose minds had been systematically destroyed by the very technology meant to save humanity.

The Adirondack Mountains, where she and David had relocated after the floods, seemed like another planet from up here. Clean air, dry land, functioning infrastructure for those wealthy enough to escape. But even there, the weight of what was happening pressed down on her like the humid air that never seemed to lift from the drowned city below.

The helicopter touched down on the UN's rooftop helipad with a metallic thud. Sarah gathered her briefcase—containing files she wasn't supposed to have, psychological assessments too damaging to ever see daylight—and stepped out into the oppressive heat. The smell hit her immediately: mold, decay, and the faint chemical tang of whatever they were using to keep the building's upper floors minimally functional.

The Ross's  took the elevator down to Conference Room 4, the same space where six hours from now these same people would gather for what she optimistically called "therapeutic intervention." The mahogany walls were warped from moisture damage, and she could hear the distant hum of industrial dehumidifiers fighting a losing battle against the pervasive dampness.

As the power couple at the center of post-catastrophe World Government entered, other key scientists and political leader already there greeted them anxiously.  Dr. Amanda Wilson, the Secretary-General's chief climate advisor; Dr. Chen Wei from Beijing's Emergency Climate Authority; Maria Santos from Brazil's Relocation Ministry; and James Morrison, representing what remained of the U.S. State Department's climate division. The most brilliant minds from the world's major powers, gathered to make decisions about the forced relocation of three hundred million climate refugees. And every single one of them was cognitively incapable of the task. Soon the banal routine of incoherent exchanges took shape as it always did there-- institutionalized madness. 

"Look, Maria," David was saying, irritation and condescension dripping from every word, "with due respect, that idea is quite poorly thought out. Let's be serious here."

Maria's face flushed. "David, I happen to recall that this idea was YOURS. I actually got it from the policy brief you wrote last month!"

David blinked, the aggression flickering like a short-circuiting light. "Oh yeah, I wrote that, but..." He turned to his wife Sarah, a renowned climate psychologist, with the expression of a student asking for help on a test. "Wait, Sarah, didn't I change my position on that one?"

Sarah felt that familiar ache behind her ribs. "No, David. Maria is correctly noting your own position, one you have not disowned. You have been questioning it, but it was your idea, and you have mixed feelings about it now." She forced her voice into therapeutic mode. "This is a good time for all of us to discuss mixed or conflicting emotions."

Mixed feelings, she thought, is exactly what I have about my marriage with David. He's completely out of touch with himself. I can't bear it anymore. She glanced around the room at the other members of their morning policy session. All of them watching this exchange with the detached fascination of people observing an interesting psychological phenomenon rather than witnessing the dissolution of two decades of professional collaboration—and with it, the dissolution of humanity's last coordinated response to civilizational collapse.

David was looking at her with that expression again—expectant, dependent, like she was his personal memory bank rather than his wife. The helicopter ride from the mountains that morning had been excruciating. He'd spent forty minutes asking her what his agenda was, what his positions were, whether he seemed optimistic or pessimistic about today's negotiations. She'd wanted to scream: You're deciding the fate of three hundred million displaced people and you can't remember what you believe about any of it.

She remembered when David used to light up over small discoveries—how he'd appear at Emma's bedroom door with a piece of quartz or an interesting fossil, his face animated as he explained its formation. "Look at this one, Em," he'd say, turning the specimen in the lamplight. "See how the crystals caught the pressure just right?" Emma would roll her eyes but smile, and David would set the rock carefully on her windowsill with the others. Now he couldn't even access whether he cared about the rocks still sitting in their daughter's abandoned room. 

"I'm having trouble following this," said Dr. Wilson, raising her hand tentatively. "Could someone remind me—are we for or against expanding the Mediterranean resettlement camps?"

"We discussed this yesterday," Sarah said gently. "You've been advocating for them for months. You called them 'humane transition facilities.'"

Wilson nodded seriously, as if filing away information about a stranger. "I know I argue for them... but do I seem to really believe that? Sometimes I feel like I just say I support them because someone told me to. You're a psychologist. How would I know the difference?"

This was the moment Sarah always dreaded—when the fundamental impossibility of their situation became too stark to ignore. How do you provide therapy to people who can't access their own emotional states? How do you help them process feelings they can't feel, resolve conflicts they can't understand?

 

                                               ***********************

 

The empathy implants had been humanity's last hope. After decades of political paralysis in the face of accelerating climate collapse, after the great floods of 2039 had left coastal cities uninhabitable and displaced nearly a billion people, the world's governments had finally accepted that traditional diplomacy was inadequate. The technology was supposed to enhance mirror neuron activity while suppressing self-referential processing—to make world leaders more attuned to others' suffering and less trapped in their own egos.

Initial trials had shown unprecedented levels of understanding and compassion. The participants could read others' emotions with startling accuracy, could sense thoughts and desires across the room, could feel others' pain as viscerally as their own. Surely, this enhanced empathy would catalyze long-overdue action on the existential threats that had brought civilization to the brink. The trials showed marked decreases in self-centered and narcissistic thinking. Greed was apparently attenuated, while attentiveness to others over self was accentuated markedly.

What no one had anticipated was that such highly concentrated sensitivity to  others would come at the cost of any coherent sense of self. The enhanced mirror neurons worked beautifully—but they'd effectively severed these people from their own inner lives. They could tell you exactly what everyone else in the room was feeling, but had no access to their own emotions, judgments, or values. This unintended consequence had inadvertently created yet another existential threat: mentally incompetent world leaders making life-and-death decisions about the planet's future.

Almost all politicians and senior scientists in the major powers had been enhanced. The technology had been voluntary, but the social pressure was immense—who would refuse a procedure that promised to make them more compassionate, more effective at global cooperation? Only a few had opted out, mostly researchers like Sarah who needed to study the effects. Nobody knew if these unintended side effects could be reversed.

Of course, ordinary citizens knew nothing about this. It was classified information in every country, lest panic be triggered. Now the fate of the earth's population rested on bizarre UN meetings and attempts at therapeutic intervention to "reverse" the effects of the enhancements. Sarah Ross as the lead psychologist behind the experiments, was now heading the effort to "rehabilitate" the affected politicians and scientists-- including, of course, her husband. He had been--and nominally continued to be--  one of the most influential members of the Post Catastrophe World Government that convened at the UN to make decisions individual nation-states no longer could in a transnational crisis of such magnitude. The end result was bizarre-- elite global technocrats without access to their own feelings at meetings held in a city now largely depopulated, with makeshift dykes and more helicopters than cars, and more homeless people in boats than helicopters and cars combined.

"Sarah," David said suddenly, "am I angry about something? I feel like I should be angry, but I can't tell if it's my anger or if I'm just picking up on Maria's anger."

"You seem frustrated," she offered, though she knew it was pointless. He could sense everyone else's frustration in the room, but couldn't distinguish it from any feelings that might be his own.

Chen Wei was staring at David with a mixture of confusion and something like grief. "David, we've worked together for fifteen years. We collaborated on the Beijing Protocols. Our families have vacationed together." His voice cracked slightly. "But I have to ask—do I actually respect you as a colleague? Because right now, honestly, you seem like kind of an arrogant ass."

"You've never said that to me before, so it's probably not what you actually think," David returned, before turning to Sarah and asking,  "But Sarah, would I be able to tell if people found me arrogant, but never said so? What would that look like?" He seemed disturbed by the possibility, and after a few moment added earnestly,  "Sarah, am I an arrogant ass?"

The other group members were taking notes—not about their own psychological insights, but about what others were saying about their personalities and beliefs. They'd all started keeping journals based entirely on external reports, trying to construct some sense of identity from secondhand observations. Sarah had watched brilliant minds reduced to this: desperate, dependent creatures who could analyze everyone else's mental states with scientific precision but couldn't access their own.

She excused herself and walked to the window. Outside, nine stories below, a small armada of makeshift boats navigated between the skeletal remains of yellow taxi cabs, their roofs just visible above the waterline. These were the former residents of Manhattan—teachers, shop owners, office workers—who had become boat people in their own city. Many were sick from the contaminated water. Many more had simply disappeared in the chaos of the floods, like her daughter Emma.

Emma. Nineteen years old, studying art at NYU when the levees broke. She'd been somewhere in the Village that day, but no one knew where. The water had risen so fast, and the cell towers had gone down almost immediately. Sarah had spent weeks searching evacuation centers, refugee camps, makeshift hospitals. David had helped at first, but after his enhancement procedure, he'd lost access to his own grief. He could remember that they'd had a daughter, could recite the facts of her disappearance, but couldn't feel the devastating loss that consumed Sarah's every waking moment.

"Do I seem sad about Emma?" he'd asked her just last week, apropos of nothing. "I know I should be sad, but I can't tell if I am."

That night, alone in their Adirondack cabin while David attended another pointless video conference, Sarah had taken her first Xanax in years. Then another. The bottle was nearly empty now.

The conference room erupted in voices behind her. She turned to see Chen Wei and Morrison arguing about agricultural zones, their faces red with what looked like passion but was probably just reflected emotion from others in the room.

"The Northern Agricultural Zones can't possibly accommodate another fifty million relocations!" Morrison was shouting.

"Really?" Chen Wei shot back, "Didn't you warn in a report that overcrowding in the other zones might necessitate just such relocations?"

Morrison, both annoyed and perplexed said, "I wrote it, but I have no evidence that I believed it at the time. We were all under great pressure at the time. Right Sarah?"

"Gentlemen, I wasn't inside your heads when you wrote those documents, and I can't retroactively psychoanalyze your motivations," Sarah answered, adding, "Mr. Morrison, if you can't trust your own documented analysis, how can we make any policy decisions? Dr. Chen, you're asking me to interpret whether you believed in your own work. This is exactly the problem we're here to address."

She closed her eyes. This happened every day now. The world's most urgent policies being debated by people who couldn't trust their own expertise, their own documented conclusions, their own moral frameworks. They treated their past work like archaeological artifacts they were trying to decode, constantly asking her to interpret their own former convictions. Meanwhile, outside these windows, boat people were dying of dysentery and cholera in water that reached the second floors of what had once been their homes.

That evening, after the day's "policy session" had dissolved into the usual confusion, the same conference room was cleared of documents and transformed into what Sarah called a therapeutic environment. The UN flag hung limply in the corner, a symbol of an institution that had become a psychiatric ward for the world's most powerful people.

"I need to ask you all something," she said, looking around at their expectant faces. "How many of you, when you're alone at night, feel like you're missing something essential? Something that used to be there but isn't anymore?"

Every hand in the room went up.

"Something without which decision-making becomes all but impossible?"

The hands stayed up.

Sarah thought about the classified file in her briefcase. The psychological assessment reports. The documentation of cognitive decline among world leaders. The pre-implant scientific analyses showing what competent policy work had looked like. The communications documenting the UN leaders' efforts to hide their condition from other government networks. The recommendations for immediate disclosure that had been buried by the same leaders who were too impaired to understand what they were burying.

Three hundred million climate refugees were waiting to learn their fate—whether they'd be resettled in facilities that these leaders couldn't remember supporting, allocated to agricultural zones they'd forgotten designing, or simply left to die in camps they were no longer capable of properly managing. And every day of delay meant more irreversible climate damage, more tipping points crossed, more of the planet pushed beyond recovery.

Her phone buzzed. A text from an unknown number: Sarah, it's Tom Chen from the old Columbia team. We need to talk. There are more of us than you think. Mountain View Inn, Route 73, tomorrow at 7. Come alone.

Tom Chen. She remembered him—one of David's former colleagues who'd refused the enhancement procedure. He'd disappeared from academic life after the floods, and she'd assumed he was dead. But apparently, he wasn't alone.

More of us.

For the first time in months, she felt something that might have been hope.


The Mountain View Inn sat on a wooded hillside thirty miles from their cabin, far enough from the flooded valleys to feel like the old world still existed. Sarah arrived early and sat in her car, watching the building through a light rain. Her hands were shaking—withdrawal from the Xanax, or nervousness, or both.

When she finally walked inside, she found them in a back room: eight people gathered around a rough wooden table. Tom Chen, looking older but alert in a way she'd forgotten was possible. Dr. Elizabeth Harper, formerly of NOAA's climate modeling division. Two engineers from the old Army Corps, a former EPA administrator, a tech entrepreneur she vaguely recognized, and two others she didn't know at all.

All of them unenhanced. All of them still capable of coherent thought.

"Sarah," Tom said, standing to embrace her. "Thank god you came."

"How many?" she asked immediately.

"More than you'd think. We've got networks in twelve countries now. Scientists, engineers, policy people—everyone who refused the enhancements or wasn't considered important enough to get them." He gestured to the others. "We've been organizing."

"Organizing for what?"

Elizabeth Harper leaned forward. "To do what the enhanced can't. Make actual decisions about climate intervention."

Over the next three hours, they laid out their alternative vision. Not the paralyzed global cooperation of the UN, but a distributed network of competent regional authorities. Scientists and engineers who could still think, working with the few remaining functional national leaders who understood their specific challenges. Immediate deployment of radical geoengineering—solar radiation management, stratospheric aerosol injection, massive atmospheric interventions coordinated by computer networks rather than bureaucratic institutions.

"It's extremely risky," Tom admitted. "These interventions could have catastrophic unintended consequences. We could trigger weather pattern disruptions, ecosystem collapses, effects we can't predict. But we're past the point of safe choices. Every month the enhanced spend in paralysis is another month of irreversible damage."

"The enhanced don't even understand what they're looking at," said Harper. "They can see the boat people outside the UN, but they can't process the moral urgency. They know refugees need relocation, but they can't feel why it matters. They can't access their own judgment about what's worth risking."

Sarah thought of David asking her how he should feel about their daughter's death. Of Wilson forgetting her own policy positions from day to day. Of Morrison dismissing his own expertise as potentially insincere. Of three hundred million people waiting for decisions from leaders who had lost the capacity to make them.

"What would you need from me?" she asked.

"Access," Tom said simply. "You have files, contacts, infrastructure. Pre-implant scientific analyses that show what competent policy work looks like. Documentation of the enhanced leaders' cognitive decline. Evidence of their efforts to hide their condition from other government networks. And you're the only person in that building who can still think clearly about what's happening."

"David," she said quietly. "My husband. He's enhanced."

Tom's expression softened. "Sarah, I'm sorry. But you know better than anyone—he's not really your husband anymore. None of them are really themselves."

She closed her eyes and saw David's face that morning, asking her whether he seemed to care about agricultural policy. Felt the familiar ache of trying to love someone who no longer existed in any meaningful sense.

"If we do this," she said, "if we expose what's happening at the UN and provide evidence to the remaining functional governments, David and the others... what happens to them?"

"Probably psychiatric care," Harper said gently. "They can't be allowed to continue making decisions that affect billions of people. But maybe, away from the pressure of governance, some of them might recover partially. We don't know."

Sarah looked around the table at these faces—tired, worried, but fundamentally present in a way that David and the others no longer were. People who could still access their own convictions, their own moral frameworks, their own sense of urgency about the crisis they were facing.

"The interventions you're proposing," she said. "Solar radiation management, atmospheric engineering—these are planetary experiments. We can't predict all the consequences."

"No," Tom said. "We can't. We're essentially gambling with the planet's future. But the alternative is watching it burn while enhanced leaders debate policies they can't understand. At least our gambles would be made by people capable of weighing risks and making informed decisions."


Two weeks later, Sarah stood in the same Conference Room 4, carrying two briefcases. One contained her usual therapy notes. The other contained copies of everything—psychological assessments, cognitive evaluations, communications from the unenhanced networks, documentation of the enhanced leaders' complete inability to govern, and most crucially, evidence of their systematic efforts to conceal their condition from other government networks.

The morning policy session was already underway. David and the others were debating refugee allocation numbers with their characteristic blend of passion and confusion, arguing for positions they couldn't remember taking, defending policies they couldn't understand.

"Excuse me," Sarah said, interrupting a heated exchange between Morrison and Santos about camp conditions. "I have an announcement."

They turned to her with the polite attention they gave to all interruptions—another symptom of their condition. Enhanced empathy had made them exquisitely sensitive to others' emotional states but incapable of prioritizing or filtering information based on their own judgment.

"This will be our last session," she said. "Effective immediately, this governing body is being dissolved."

"Dissolved?" David asked, looking confused. "By whom?"

"By people who can still think."

For the next hour, she explained everything. The psychological assessments documenting their cognitive decline. The existence of unenhanced networks in twelve countries. The complete breakdown of decision-making capacity among the world's enhanced leadership. The alternative governance structures already being established by competent regional authorities. The evidence that would be presented to remaining functional governments showing that the UN enhanced leadership had systematically concealed their impairment.

They listened with the same polite attention they gave to everything else, taking notes on information they wouldn't be able to process or act on.

"So you're saying we're fired?" David asked when she finished.

"Yes, David. I'm so sorry, but—"

"Well, I doubt I'd like that," he interrupted. "I mean, you know me well. Does that sound like something I'd like? I have good reason to think I'm not happy with this. Should I feel upset?"

Sarah felt the déjà vu of living with an emotionally coreless husband for over a year—someone she couldn't share feelings with, someone who'd become a stranger wearing her husband's face. At moments like this, she could forgive herself for the torturous decision she'd made.

"Yes," she said quietly. "You should feel upset. You all should. But you can't, and that's exactly why this has to happen."

Outside the conference room windows, the boat people continued their endless navigation of the drowned city, waiting for decisions that would never come from leaders who'd forgotten how to lead themselves. But forty miles north, in the Adirondack Mountains, competent people were already coordinating interventions that might slow the planet's heating—or might trigger cascading effects no one could predict.

The enhanced leaders might be saved, placed in care, possibly recover some measure of their former selves away from the impossible pressures of global governance. The planet might be saved by desperate geoengineering gambles implemented by people still capable of weighing terrible risks against worse certainties. Or the interventions might fail catastrophically, creating new forms of environmental chaos.

But at least the people making decisions would be capable of understanding what they were deciding. At least someone would be able to access their own judgment about what was worth risking when there were no safe choices left.

Sarah picked up her briefcases and walked toward the elevator. Behind her, she could hear David asking the others whether he seemed upset about being fired, and whether anyone could tell him what upset was supposed to feel like.

The helicopter was waiting on the roof to take her north—toward the mountains, toward people who could still think and feel and choose, toward the uncertain hope that competent desperation might accomplish what enhanced paralysis never could.

As they lifted off over the drowned city, Sarah pressed her face to the window one last time, looking down at the boat people navigating between the ruins of the world that had been. She didn't look back at the UN building. There was nothing left there worth saving.

But ahead, in the clean air of the mountains, people were taking enormous risks to build something new from the wreckage of what had failed. Whether they would succeed was unknowable. Whether their interventions would help or harm was unpredictable. Whether it was already too late regardless of who was in charge was unanswerable.

But for the first time in over a year, Sarah felt cautiously hopeful that at least some degree of efficacious action—however dangerous, however uncertain—might finally be possible.


 

MAGA opens national forests to mass destruction; Blog note Re: Sharing Pxy

The NYT reports (not paywalled) that djt is opening vast amounts of US forest land to environmental rape for profit:

Trump Administration to End Protections for 58 Million Acres of National Forests

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the Clinton-era rule barring road construction and logging was outdated and “absurd”
The Trump administration said on Monday that it would open up 58 million acres of back country in national forests to road construction and development, removing protections that had been in place for a quarter century.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced plans to repeal the 2001 “roadless rule” that had preserved the wild nature of nearly a third of the land in national forests in the United States. Ms. Rollins said the regulation was outdated.

“Once again, President Trump is removing absurd obstacles to common-sense management of our natural resources by rescinding the overly restrictive roadless rule,” Ms. Rollins said in a statement. She said the repeal “opens a new era of consistency and sustainability for our nation’s forests.”
If one is concerned about protecting the environment and lands the US owns, what is “absurd”, actually outrageous, is corrupt MAGA thugs telling us that opening protected forests to rape and pillage for profit constitutes a new era of “consistency and sustainability.” What a pack of insulting, kleptocratic MAGA lies. 

In fact, this is just another transfer of wealth and power from the public and the public interest, to special interests. Who pays for building the roads for private tree harvesting companies to use to get to our trees? Taxpayers. How much do private tree harvesting companies pay for the trees they take and make profit from? Not enough to pay for the roads us idiot taxpayers paid to build the access roads. Annual loss is ~$1 billion/year to the US Forest Service.[1] 

Not only is the public and public interest being lied to and ripped off by MAGA kleptocrats and criminals, they are forcing us to pay them to screw us. What benefit do we get? I asked Pxy: 

Q2: Given (1) how MAGA and Trump operate rhetorically (mendacious and demagogic) and politically, (2) how much dark money in politics there was in the 2024 elections, and (3) how corrupt MAGA elites and Trump are operating in our pay-to-play political system, make a rough estimate of costs and benefits to the special interests who will benefit and the public, e.g., ~90% of benefits and ~10% of costs flow to the special interests who will harvest trees and ~90% of costs and ~10% of benefits will flow to the public and public interest. It is understood that this will be an estimate, but a reasonable, fact-based estimate is the only possibility given that MAGA, Trump and special interests seeking favors and advantages operate in as much secrecy, deceit and lies as they can possibly get away with. Fact check your data sources and provide links. Minimize all biases as much as possible.

A2: Executive Summary: Based on available financial data and the documented patterns of corruption and dark money influence in the Trump administration, the distribution of costs and benefits from forest deprotection policies appears heavily skewed toward private timber interests at public expense. The evidence suggests approximately 85% of benefits flow to special interests while they bear only 5% of costs, with the public bearing 95% of costs while receiving just 15% of benefits 1 2 3.



Footnote:
1. One source comments on the cost to us taxpayers: Recreation has replaced logging as the golden egg of the national forest system. While the extensive logging practices lose $1 billion a year, recreation based in national forests provides $111 billion per year to the country’s gross domestic product. And that’s according to the U.S. Forest Service’s own study, which also declares only 3% of jobs in rural communities are linked to logging on public land, while 75% of jobs in rural communities come from recreation based on public lands. Recreation contributes 30 times more income to the nation’s economy and creates 38 times more jobs than logging. Yet current Forest Service policy** still favors logging over recreation.

** Forest Service policy is now MAGA kleptocracy policy -- it's the new normal!!
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Blog note: I can make all of my Pxy Qs&As available to the public by, amazingly, clicking on a button that says "Share"! Who would have thunk it? I figured out this advanced technology just a day or two ago.



Share button is at upper right 
corner of Pxy responses

Monday, June 23, 2025

The personalist presidency

CONTEXT
Political scientists, sociologists, investigative journalists and others have been trying to figure out what is going on with djt and his MAGA wealth and power movement. To some people, e.g., me, the main goals have been clear since 2016, accumulation of wealth and power for himself and some other elites. That was to be done by attacking democracy, the rule law and civil liberties, especially their restraints on unlimited political power. But that does not explain in detail how djt's and elite MAGA's attacks on power restraints are being accomplished. 

Lots of analysts focus on comparisons between djt and MAGA elites with dictators of the past, including Hitler, and how djt and MAGA elites are establishing Americans authoritarianism as dominant over democracy and the rule of law. There are parallels and similarities between djt and past despots, but is that alone be enough to overthrow the American democracy and rule of law? Nearly all people who see little to no threat to democracy keep pointing out how strong American democracy and the institutions that support it are. The bottom line for most of those people is simple: Dictatorship can't happen here.  


The personalist presidency
One line of research that seems to be fairly new is a recognition of what researchers call the personalist presidency (PP) that djt and MAGA elites are well on their way to establishing. The PP is a form of dictatorship centered on the dictator who relies on loyalty to himself and key tactics to gain and keep power. Political scientist Don Moynihan describes the PP concept in a substack post (this peer-reviewed paper). He writes in his substack post:
Right now, so many things are happening so quickly that it is hard to keep up. This is part of a deliberate strategy to “flood the zone” with so many changes that it is impossible to make sense of them all. I’ve been trying to step back and identify bigger patterns that help us to frame and understand these events, rather than just respond to them.

For a considerable period, from about the 1970s until relatively recently, politicization of the U.S. federal government describes a President using two basic strategies: centralizing policy expertise within the White House, and using political appointees to strategically manage agencies, especially agencies that do not ideologically align with the President. Both political parties applied such strategies, to varying degrees, within a certain equilibrium. The President was assumed to value a balance between loyalty to his policies, and administrative competence in delivering those policies. The civil service system was assumed to be a stable source of institutional capacity, with basic workforce protections for employees. Within that equilibrium, the number of political appointees has gradually increased, from about 3,000 in 1990 to about 4,000 today, even as the number of career federal employees they supervised remained relatively stable since the 1960s.

That equilibrium no longer exists. Direct forms of political control are more extreme, and the types of politicization are more varied than the centralization of policymaking power and strategic use of appointees. The core components of the new politicization are

1) The personalist presidency - centered on loyalty to Trump with a legal infrastructure built to serve and protect him

2) Governing by fear via conspiratorial messaging towards the public sector and threatening individual public servants

3) Purging of career officials, expansion of appointee class by weakening of civil service systems, and dismantling civil service protections. 

The emergence of Trump has compelled scholars focused on US domestic politics and policy to look to comparative research for useful explanatory concepts, such as populism and personalism. While populism centers on a grievance-driven us-vs.-them ideology, personalism centers on the idea of a political movement built around loyalty to an individual leader. Personalism is more likely to prevail in settings featuring weak political, democratic and governance institutions, and so the emergence of personalism in the Grand Old Party and the United States challenges prior assumptions. While loyalty to Trump may falter in his last years in office, he has been able to silence or drive from power dissenters within the Republican Party and seeks to do so within government.

Trump has created the conditions for a personalist presidency, reorienting processes and powers to reward the value of loyalty. Personalist systems are more likely to feature family members, or those who have passed extraordinary loyalty tests, such as joining in false claims the leader makes or defending damaging behavior, such as the denial of an election loss. 

His second term Cabinet nominations were largely not the type of generic Republican that characterized his first term, often holding few credentials for the position beyond their loyalty to Trump. A willingness to stand with Trump during his lowest period, after the 2021 January 6th assault on Congress by his supporters, became a key criterion. Donald Trump Jr described the appointee screening process: “Loyalty has got to be number one,” emphasizing that the Presidential Personnel Office “will diligently go through and understand not just where were they in 2015 and 2016, but where were they on January 7th”. Candidates for appointments were screened with questions like whether they believed Trump’s false claim he won the 2020 election and how they evaluated the 2021 January 6th insurrection.

To maintain Trump’s personalist Presidency requires defanging standard modes of presidential accountability. In his first term, Trump fired Inspectors General at an unprecedented rate, removed the head of the FBI, and complained about Department of Justice investigations. A key lesson he drew from his first term was to build an even stronger legal infrastructure to further shield him from risk and increase his power. Trump and supporters eliminated the long-standing norm that the Department of Justice maintain a measure of independence from the President, enabling him to directly intervene in cases involving investigation of himself, or his political opponents.
Purge competent bureaucrats and replace with 
loyalists, regardless of competence or honesty


Moynihan's post continues at length like this. But the key point he makes is that djt puts loyalty to himself far above the Constitution, the law, democratic norms and our civil liberties and legal protections. Competence is a minor to trivial concern. Loyalty matters first and foremost. Right now, the balance of power is solidly with djt acting as dictator. Musk losing his recent fight with djt is solid evidence of that.

Any deference Trump has left for democracy, the rule of law or civil liberties remain because djt sees enough personal value to leave them in place to (1) protect his power or (2) enrich himself when he sells off the remaining vestiges to special interests. The buyers can then profit or establish their own fiefdoms. What fiefdoms? These for example, (A) carbon energy corporations and their pollution of our environment and physical bodies, (B) unregulated billionaires preying on their deprotected, naked workers and consumers, (C) some Christian Zionists getting Iran bombed to initiate the rapture that saves Christians from an imminent global war that will lead to the deaths of most or all non-believers, and (D) Christian nationalists and their bigoted, hate-driven theocracy. Those are really big fiefdoms. Economically worth trillions. Socially probably worth at least as much in social capital.

Everyone will have to pay djt personally to get a slice of the pie taken from us and given to special interests. But whatever they have pay to djt, it will be well worth it. Almost every time they will win and we will lose.

Bottom line: Dictatorship can and is happening here, right now. 


Q1: Do you think that the PP concept adds much or anything new in understanding djt and MAGA elites, their tactics and their thinking? Or is all of this more or less obvious? 

Q2: Any predictions on what happens after Trump dies, e.g., Christian nationalist theocracy, continuing "secular" (pragmatic?) dictatorship, populist nationalism with at least semi-functioning congress, or modest restoration of the old normal? Is the old normal ever going to come back?


Acknowledgement: PD brought the concept of the PP and research on it to my attention