MAGA bits: MAGA logic; War spending; Pardoning drug dealers; Crackpot COVID update

The Hill reports about how one MAGA elite sees cuts to some domestic spending: "Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) pushed back against constituents who shouted out at her recent town hall meeting that cuts to Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) would cause people to die, responding, “Well, we’re all going to die.” "

Confusingly, Ernst went on to say that people were ignoring her and that Medicaid in Iowa was "extremely important." 

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The Hill reports some details in a proposed 2026 spending plan that djt put out: "President Trump is calling for more than $160 billion in cuts to nondefense discretionary spending — amounting to about 22 percent — while requesting a boost to defense dollars."

Previously, djt's rhetoric was that over time defense spending would be cut by 50%. A week later spending cut rhetoric was for defense cuts of 8%/year for 5 years (~34% over 5 years). But now it is defense increases. How much increase? Apparently the defense spending increase, part of a broader budget plan, includes a 13% increase in defense spending for fiscal year 2026. That raises the total proposed defense budget to $1.01 trillion, a $113.3 billion increase.

The rhetoric surrounding djt/MAGA defense spending so far: 

50% cut → 34% cut → 13% increase 

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NPR reports that djt is pardoning drug dealers while his rhetoric continues to attack drug trafficking. 

He recently granted clemency to Larry Hoover, 74. He was serving multiple life sentences in federal prison for crimes linked to his role leading the Chicago-based Gangster Disciples. So far in his second term, he has granted clemency to at least eight criminals convicted on federal drug charges. Some, including Hoover, have extensive criminal records involving violence and gun charges. One of the pardoned so far this year is Ross Ulbricht, a former, a former tech entrepreneur serving a life term in federal prison. Ulbricht created Silk Road, a dark web internet site that was a major conduit for drug traffickers.

This is not new. In his 1st term, his rhetoric threatened tough action against drug dealers, but he pardoned or commuted the sentences of at least 13 people convicted of federal drug crimes. That included high-level dealers linked to violence or convicted of operating major trafficking rings. 

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The LA Times reports that a new COVID-19 subvariant, NB.1.8.1, is spreading rapidly in California and globally. A potential summer wave of infections is possible. So, what is our federal health care crackpot, RFK Jr, doing about COVID? He's helping it spread! He rescinded federal recommendations for COVID-19 vaccinations for healthy pregnant women and children. The FDA announced it will no longer routinely approve updated COVID vaccines for healthy individuals under 65. Presumably private insurers and government programs will stop paying for COVID vaccines. At present, that would put out-of-pocket costs at $198.99 per dose. The crackpot announced his directive without consulting CDC advisory panels or experts. Being an ignorant, elite MAGA jackass, he just knows stuff better than actual scientists and experts.

Fact: COVID mRNA vaccines have so far have been proven to be safe and effective (1, 2, 3, 4, 5). That is not in dispute among experts. Crackpots and cranks dispute it.

A TL/DR analysis of the impacts of the crackpot's nonsense is at footnote 1.

TL/DR Footnote: 

1. Impact of the crackpot's new guidance on COVID infections. Bottom line: Both RFK Jr and his boss djt will both be responsible for needlessly causing increased infections, hospitalizations and deaths. That makes them both stone-cold killers. 

Q1: Find or make estimates of the impact of the new COVID guidance on infections, hospitalizations and deaths.

A1: 

Key Policy Changes and Context

Vaccine Recommendations for Children and Pregnant Women: COVID-19 vaccines for healthy children and pregnant women were moved from “recommended” to “shared clinical decision-making” (SCDM) status, requiring consultation with healthcare providers1 12 13.

The CDC’s updated immunization schedules now list COVID-19 vaccines under SCDM, similar to niche vaccines like meningococcal B 1 16.

FDA Guidance for Adults Under 65:
Healthy adults under 65 will no longer receive routine approval for updated COVID-19 boosters unless they undergo new efficacy studies 3 17.

Approximately 100–200 million Americans with comorbidities (e.g., diabetes, obesity) remain eligible 3.

Insurance Coverage and Cost Implications:
Private insurers and government programs may cease coverage for COVID-19 vaccines, raising out-of-pocket costs to ~$199 per dose 12 13.

Baseline Vaccination Coverage and Effectiveness

Current Coverage (Pre-Policy Change):
Children (6 months–17 years): 13.0% up to date with the 2024–25 vaccine 11.

Pregnant Women: 14.4% vaccinated, with disparities by race/ethnicity (e.g., 23.6% non-Hispanic Asian vs. 7.2% non-Hispanic Black) 2 11.

Adults (18+ years): 23.0% vaccinated 11.

Vaccine Effectiveness (VE):
2024–25 Vaccine:

1. 33% effective against emergency department/urgent care (ED/UC) visits in adults 4 17.

2. 45–46% effective against hospitalizations in immunocompetent adults ≥65 years 4 17.

3. 40% effective against hospitalizations in immunocompromised adults ≥65 years 4.

Projected Impact of Reduced Vaccination Coverage
1. Infections:
Children: Modeling from the 2021–2022 season estimated that vaccinating 5–11-year-olds averted ~430,000 cases without a new variant 10. A 10% decline in coverage (from 13% to 11.7%) could result in ~43,000 additional annual cases in this age group.

Pregnant Women: Lower coverage may increase infections in a population already at 2x higher risk of ICU admission and death 1 13.

2. Hospitalizations:
Children: Current pediatric COVID-19 hospitalizations account for ~4.3% of total U.S. hospitalizations (2.9% in children <5 years) 6. A 10% coverage drop could increase hospitalizations by 8.7% (matching the VE reduction observed in SCDM contexts 15), translating to ~1,000–1,600 additional annual pediatric hospitalizations (based on 2023–2024 data) 6 10.

Pregnant Women: Hospitalization rates for unvaccinated pregnant women are 2–3x higher than for vaccinated peers 2 13. A 10% coverage decline could increase hospitalizations by ~15–20% in this group.

3. Deaths:
Children: Pediatric COVID-19 deaths are rare (<0.1% of total deaths) 7, but unvaccinated children <6 months face hospitalization risks comparable to seniors 1 6.

Pregnant Women: COVID-19 during pregnancy increases stillbirth and preterm labor risks 1 13. A 10% coverage drop could elevate maternal mortality by ~5–10% in high-risk cohorts.

Older Adults: Indirect effects from reduced population immunity may increase transmission to vulnerable seniors, who account for 86% of COVID-19 deaths 7 14.

Economic and Equity Considerations
Cost Barriers: At $198.99 per dose, low-income families face disproportionate access challenges, exacerbating existing disparities (e.g., non-Hispanic Black pregnant women’s coverage is already 3x lower than non-Hispanic Asian women 11).

SCDM Limitations: Shared decision-making introduces logistical hurdles, reducing uptake by ~10–15% compared to routine recommendations 8 15. For example, meningococcal B vaccine uptake under SCDM is 11.9% vs. 60.8% for routinely recommended vaccines 15.

Conclusion
The revised guidelines are expected to reduce COVID-19 vaccination coverage, particularly among children and pregnant women, leading to measurable increases in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. While the policy shifts align with political priorities, they conflict with expert CDC/ACIP scientific consensus. 

 

Q2: What is the estimated economic cost of the new NB.1.8.1 COVID guidance per year? About how many additional deaths will there be per year?

A2: The revised federal recommendations for COVID-19 vaccination—including the removal of routine guidance for healthy pregnant women and children, coupled with restrictions on booster approvals for adults under 65—are projected to increase infections, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Breakdown of Economic Costs

• Hospitalizations: $89–$137 million

• Outpatient care: $57–$92 million

• Long-term complications: $1.1–$1.8 billion

• Productivity losses: $8.9–$14.2 million

• Premature mortality: $330–$480 billion (value of statistical life-based)

Update: Exposing the deep state

An AP article reports about supporters of djt becoming impatient about seeing the evidence of all the crimes and evil of the deep state that he promised to make public: "Trump has long warned of a government ‘deep state.’ Now in power, he’s under pressure to expose it -- As he crisscrossed the country in 2024, Donald Trump pledged to supporters that voting him back into the presidency would be “our final battle.” “With you at my side, we will demolish the deep state,” he said repeatedly on the campaign trail. “We will liberate our country from these tyrants and villains once and for all.” Some who take him at his word are beginning to get restless as they ask why his administration, which holds the keys to chasing down these alleged government secrets, is denying them the evidence and retribution they expected. .... His Justice Department has not yet arrested hordes of “deep state” actors as some of his supporters had hoped it would, even as the president has been posting cryptic videos and memes about Democratic politicians. “People are tired of not knowing,” conservative commentator Damani Felder said on podcaster Tim Pool’s show last week. “We actually demand answers and real transparency. It’s not that hard to deliver.” "

The AP article points out that impatience with exposing the deep state became evident after FBI Director Kash Patel dismissed two of the unsubstantiated conspiracy theories that have fired up the base the most. One was that financier and sexual abuser Jeffrey Epstein was murdered in a cover-up (he committed suicide). The other was the assassination attempt in Butler Pennsylvania was a government plot (it wasn't). 

According to djt, the deep state is a secret network of powerful people manipulating government decisions behind the scenes for nefarious or corrupt reasons. That argument helped build his base of support. His supporters expect steps to be taken against people djt claimed were involved in sinister plots against him, such as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and former FBI Director James Comey. The administration also hasn’t offered proof of the “egregious crimes ” that djt claims corrupted the federal government for years. Egregious crimes ought to be pretty easy to ferret out now that loyal MAGA elites are in power and calling the shots.

Maybe the reasons that djt and MAGA elites have not yet exposed and arrested the deep state villains is that (1) very few exist, if any, and (2) there never was a deep state. Maybe some government employees who are corrupt can be found and plausibly accused of deep state evil. That will probably suffice to prove the existence of corrupt tyranny in government for some supporters. Time will tell how this plays out.

Q: How likely is it that djt and MAGA elites will ferret out a major deep state and prove its existence to the satisfaction of most djt voters and supporters? 

Did Americans vote for this?

Commentator Kevin Williams makes the argument that Americans knew about the damage and harms that djt and MAGA elites would cause, but voted for it anyway. He argues that djt supporters bear moral responsibility for choosing a leader characterized by chaos, corruption, and cruelty. 

Williams rejects excuses that djt voters were misled or ignorant, by pointing out that his history, e.g., bankruptcies, reality TV persona, and post-2020 election coup attempt, was all publicly well-known. He argues that Americans, "are not children" but "fully realized human beings" who consciously endorsed djt's well-known bad behaviors and performance while in office.

For example, economic growth under djt mirrored Obama’s presidency and lagged behind Biden’s, but his trade wars harmed farmers. He also claims that djt’s appeal stems from a "creed of cruelty," with supporters motivated by resentment toward perceived elites and a desire to retaliate against political opponents. Also well-known was djt’s admiration for Putin, hints at a third term, and disregard for legal norms. All of that is framed as threats to democracy and democratic institutions.

Williams condemns Trumpism as a rejection of decency, fueled by grievances instead of ideology. It likens his administration to a "reality TV show" marked by "lawlessness, incompetence, and corruption," arguing that re-electing him would deepen global disdain for the US, which has already happened.

Q: Do djt supporters bear more moral responsibility than djt and MAGA? 

Here is a bit of political satire-- a very short absurdist story for readers' consideration. Recently I posted a sci-fi story that imagined a post-Trump future here, and was pleased to find that some of you liked it. This one is shorter, and confines itself to a 5 minute scenario in an "empty chair town hall meeting"-- if you look that up you'll see where the phrase comes from. Using that odd phrase--"empty chair town hall meetings"--  I developed a bizarre little scenario (related to the themes in those news stories, about GOP  representatives that no longer meet their constituents)... Hope you all enjoy it! --PD

Empty Chair Meetings 

Joe Hendricks counted out quarters on the hood of his Honda, squinting at the parking meter's faded instructions. Seventy-five cents for two hours—enough time, he hoped, to get a straight answer about his Medicare coverage. He fed the coins into the slot with deliberate precision, each quarter representing careful budgeting since his doctor visits had stopped being covered in September. The manila folder under his arm contained three months of contradictory correspondence, and the phone maze at Medicare had left him dizzy with transferred calls and hold music. This town hall meeting was his last reasonable shot at getting a human answer to a human question.

The Millfield Community Center's main hall felt sterile under harsh fluorescent lighting, empty except for twelve folding chairs arranged in a precise semicircle. Each chair sat behind a sleek digital nameplate that flickered through rotating titles: "Acting Deputy Director," "Interim Assistant Coordinator," "Temporary Liaison Supervisor." Joe's footsteps echoed as he crossed the polished floor. Above each chair, microphones dangled from the ceiling like mechanical spiders, connected to a central amplification console that hummed with electronic anticipation.

A teleprompter near the entrance scrolled: WELCOME TO YOUR REPRESENTATIVE TOWN HALL. PLEASE STATE YOUR QUESTION INTO THE MONITOR AND TAKE A SEAT IN THE EMPTY CHAIR CHAMBER. YOUR CONCERN WILL BE ADDRESSED ACCORDING TO THE FIVE-MINUTE RULE.

Joe leaned toward the monitor's built-in microphone. "I just need to know why Medicare stopped covering my doctor visits. I've been paying into the system for forty-three years." His voice bounced off the walls, creating a hollow echo in the empty space.

The teleprompter responded: THANK YOU. PLEASE BE SEATED. SESSION COMMENCING.

He chose a chair in the middle of the audience section and settled in, the manila folder resting on his lap. The digital nameplates continued their relentless shuffle: one now read "Former Future Chairperson," another "Associate Acting Undersecretary." The microphones began to move, rotating with mechanical precision to focus on the empty chairs like searchlights seeking targets.

Then came the creak. Chair number four—currently labeled "Provisional Deputy Associate"—shifted almost imperceptibly under the weight of absence. The super-sensitive microphone captured the sound and fed it through the amplification system, transforming the barely audible squeak into a low, resonant groan that filled the room.

The main console's screen flickered: PROVISIONAL DEPUTY ASSOCIATE ACKNOWLEDGES THE INQUIRY AND DEFERS TO SPECIALIZED JURISDICTION.

Chair seven (now "Interim Coordination Specialist") creaked in response. The microphones caught this too, amplifying it into a longer, more complex sound. The translation software processed: INTERIM COORDINATION SPECIALIST NOTES PROCEDURAL COMPLEXITIES AND REQUESTS INTERDEPARTMENTAL CONSULTATION.

Joe leaned forward. "Excuse me, I just need—"

But the system was gaining momentum. The hyper-sensitive microphones began detecting subtler sounds: the whisper of air through ventilation ducts, the distant buzz of fluorescent ballasts, the almost inaudible settling of the building's foundation. Each sound triggered the amplification cascade, and within minutes the room filled with a growing symphony of interpreted silence.

ACTING INTERIM DIRECTOR suggests reviewing subsection 4.7 of protocol guidelines...

DEPUTY COORDINATION LIAISON recommends cross-referencing with established precedent...

TEMPORARY ADMINISTRATIVE SUPERVISOR emphasizes the importance of proper channels...

The nameplates spun faster now, titles becoming increasingly baroque: "Assistant to the Deputy Shadow Coordinator," "Interim Permanent Temporary Director," "Acting Associate Provisional Supervisor." One nameplate glitched, displaying "ERROR_404: AUTHORITY_NOT_FOUND" before cycling to "Emergency Backup Acting Director."

A fly buzzed near chair nine. The system erupted: EMERGENCY PROTOCOLS ACTIVATED. ASSISTANT DEPUTY EMERGENCY COORDINATOR CALLS FOR IMMEDIATE RISK ASSESSMENT AND COMPREHENSIVE STAKEHOLDER NOTIFICATION PROCEDURES.

The amplification reached feedback territory—microphones picking up their own output, creating loops of electronic shrieking. The translation software struggled to keep pace: SYSTEM PROCESSING... RECALCULATING... The cacophony was deafening: chairs creaking under the weight of empty responsibility, circuits screaming with artificial purpose, nameplates strobing through an endless cycle of meaningless authority.

Then, as suddenly as it began, the five-minute timer expired. The microphones retracted with mechanical precision. The feedback ceased. The nameplates settled into their final positions. The main console screen displayed the session's official conclusion:

AFTER COMPREHENSIVE INTERDEPARTMENTAL CONSULTATION AND THOROUGH PROCEDURAL REVIEW, THE DEPUTY ASSISTANT PROVISIONAL COORDINATOR, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INTERIM ACTING TEMPORARY SUPERVISOR, RECOMMENDS THAT YOU SUBMIT FORM 847-B TO THE APPROPRIATE LIAISON OFFICE FOR FURTHER CONSIDERATION OF YOUR REQUEST FOR CLARIFICATION REGARDING YOUR INQUIRY ABOUT THE MATTER IN QUESTION, PENDING AVAILABILITY OF RELEVANT PERSONNEL AND SUBJECT TO STANDARD PROCESSING TIMEFRAMES AND APPLICABLE REGULATORY GUIDELINES.

Joe stared at the screen, then down at his manila folder. His Medicare question hung in the air, unanswered and somehow more distant than when he'd arrived seventy-five cents ago. The empty chairs sat in perfect silence, their nameplates now reading generic titles: "Representative," "Official," "Authority."

He looked at the teleprompter, which had reset to its welcoming message: WELCOME TO YOUR REPRESENTATIVE TOWN HALL. PLEASE STATE YOUR QUESTION INTO THE MONITOR...

Joe Hendricks stood up slowly, walked to the monitor, and smiled wryly at his own reflection in its dark screen. He leaned toward the microphone once more. "I just need to know why Medicare stopped covering my doctor visits," he said again, his voice carrying the patient resignation of a man who understands that some questions are designed never to be answered.

The teleprompter responded: THANK YOU. PLEASE BE SEATED. SESSION COMMENCING.

Behind him, chair number four began its almost imperceptible creak.