Some Erosion in Support for Trump

The New York Times reports on a poll that indicates that about 6% of the people who supported the president in 2016 say they will not vote for him again in 2020. Another 8% are unsure to some extent. The poll was focused on the six states most likely to be critical for his re-election. For some, they dropped their support shortly after the president was sworn into office in January of 2017. For others, (i) the botched federal coronavirus response, or (ii) the current social unrest, led to their loss of support.

On the flip side, about 2% of voters in battleground states who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 indicated that they will vote for the president in 2020.

Reasons for loss of support vary from coherent to incoherent. The NYT quoted one former supporter as coherently saying “He said he was going to, quote unquote, drain the swamp, and all he’s done is splashed around and rolled around in it.” Another incoherently said “I think if he weren’t such an appalling human being, he would make a great president, because I think what this country needs is somebody who isn’t a politician. But obviously with the coronavirus and the social unrest we’re dealing with, that’s where you need a politician, somebody with a little bit more couth.”

Another former supporter gave a combination of coherence and incoherence, “he was a great businessman, [incoherent]” but in the wake of the killing of Mr. Floyd he reasoned “It was kind of the last straw. It was like, this dude is just in it for himself.[coherent] I thought he was supposed to be for the people.[incoherent]”

Some who will not vote for the president again say they won't vote for Biden, which strikes me as incoherent. That attitude indicates that they see nothing exceptional about the president or his performance that would warrant voting for the only candidate with any chance of winning the election. Obviously, people will disagree over what is coherent here and what isn’t. 

Other than handling of the economy, most defectors disapprove of the president’s performance on every major issue.

As usual, there is a caveat to all of this. This is just one poll 4 months in advance of the election. Some people can and probably will change their minds before then. The fact that the defectors see the president as doing well with the economy indicates that the president can pound away on that issue, despite the fact that the perceptions of a good economy ignore increasing federal debt and an increased trickle up of wealth to wealthy people and business interests.

Religion Takes More From Taxpayers

The US Supreme Court handed down a 5-4 decision (on straight party lines) in Espinoza et al. v. Montana Department of Revenue. The court held that Montana’s Constitutional provision barring state government aid to any school “controlled in whole or in part by any church, sect, or denomination” is unconstitutional. The court reasoned that the ban of state aid to religious schools violated the Free Exercise Clause of the First Amendment to the US Constitution. In essence, Montana’s “no-aid” provision to a state program providing tuition assistance to parents who send their children to private schools discriminated against religious schools and the families whose children attend or hope to attend them because aid ban violates the free exercise clause.

One commentator discussed the decision and what it might mean:

“Once again, a Supreme Court majority has gone to the edge of the cliff, ready to push the concept of no aid to religion over the side but stopping short. Even though the concept still exists (barely) in the form of making a distinction based on the “use” of tax funds rather than on the “status” of the recipient of those funds, the rule prohibiting government financial support for religion is all but dead. As Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg observed in her dissent, even though the majority did not reach the ultimate conclusion, its opinion ‘seems to treat the [state’s] no aid provision itself as unconstitutional.’ 

It is not an overstatement to say that the U.S. Supreme Court’s holdings on public financial aid to religious institutions have not been a model of clarity or consistency over the past 75 years. In 1947, the court announced an apparent rule of “no aid” to religion: “No tax in any amount, large or small, can be levied to support any religious activities or institutions.” After declaring that rule, a majority then upheld the aid program in question, eliciting a torrent of criticism from the dissenters. Despite that statement’s absoluteness, the court has long allowed types of neutral and tangible assistance to flow to religious institutions, such as providing secular textbooks to religious schools. Over the past three decades, however, a majority of justices have slowly been dismantling the remaining vestiges of the no-aid principle to authorize forms of divertible aid (e.g., vouchers, tax credits), leaving the establishment clause a shell.”

In addition to Montana, 37 other states have constitutions that contain similar no-aid provisions prohibiting tax dollars being spent for religious institutions or education. It seems reasonable to think that the Espinoza decision casts at least some doubt on the validity of all those no-aid laws. Given the endless appetite of Christianity in America for public financial support, one can imagine that those laws will be challenged to nudge the court into total capitulation. 

Religion will aggressively pursue every tax dollar it can get. Once the tax dollar floodgates are opened, which is exactly what GOP supreme court judges want to do, the power of Christianity in government will increase with its increased revenue flows and accompanying wealth. America is drifting into some sort of a Christian theocracy-lite. From what I can tell, what is coming is not going to be a benign or forgiving form of Christianity that is willing to live and let live. It is going to impair our civil liberties as much as it can in the name of sacred Christian moral values. 

In reporting on the decision, the AP commented:

“Roughly three-dozen states have similar no-aid provisions in their constitutions. Courts in some states have relied on those provisions to strike down religious-school funding. Two states with existing private education programs, Maine and Vermont, could see quick efforts to force them to allow religious schools to participate.”

Tax subsidies for religion

In 2013, Ryan T. Cragun, a sociologist, and two of his students tried to analyze the value of tax subsidies that all of the American people are required by tax laws to provide to religion in America. Cragun estimated the subsidies were worth about $82.5 billion/year. I wrote to Cragun and asked him how accurate he thought that estimate was. He indicated it was very conservative because many churches and religious organizations refused to disclose their financial details. My guess is that tax breaks for religion in America were probably worth closer to ~$110 billion/year and possibly a lot more.

Cragun’s analysis of tax benefits 

Churches are public charities, called Section 501(c)(3) organizations in the tax code. They are generally exempt from federal, state, and local income and property taxes under the law. Unlike most other Section 501(c)(3) organizations, federal law allows religious groups to keep their finances secret. In 2018, the Freedom From Religion Foundation sued the Treasury Department to get its hands on religious financial documents. I don't know how that lawsuit has played out so far. I suspect the court will protect religion from public financial disclosure.

On occasion, religious groups have been caught hiding sleaze and corruption behind the secrecy shield. Forbes wrote this about the 2108 FFRF lawsuit:

“Form 990 is a required filing that creates significant transparency for exempt organizations. In 1971, it was harder to get your hands on a Form 990, but a team of reporters working for Warren Buffet's Omaha Sun took the trouble which allowed them to expose the extent to which fundraising had outstripped service delivery at the venerable Boys Town.

But, in contrast to other not-for profits, the Internal Revenue Code does not require reporting for churches. Reverend Frank Benson Jones in Stop The Prosperity Preachers argues that a 990 requirement would help root out church financial abuse.”

The Mormon Church has used the secrecy shield to allegedly cheat on taxes. A December 2019 article in the Washington Post commented:  

“A former investment manager alleges in a whistleblower complaint to the Internal Revenue Service that the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has amassed about $100 billion in accounts intended for charitable purposes, according to a copy of the complaint obtained by The Washington Post.

The confidential document, received by the IRS on Nov. 21, accuses church leaders of misleading members — and possibly breaching federal tax rules — by stockpiling their surplus donations instead of using them for charitable works. It also accuses church leaders of using the tax-exempt donations to prop up a pair of businesses.”

Given the aggressiveness of religion in clawing tax dollars from taxpayers and its now powerful influence at all levels of the federal government, it is reasonable to demand at least transparency in their finances. It is also reasonable to demand the end of all tax subsidies at least for all religious groups that participate in politics and policy making. The Espinoza decision fits my definition of religion making policy in service to its own interests at the expense of both the public interest and honest, transparent governance.

White Person's Burden: the Cost of Meaningful Change

Kelsey Smoot writes at The Guardian about the nature of "allyship" - of being more than a mere sympathizer - and of the costs one must bear to do so.  The lead poses a striking question:

If the White people in my life could hit a button and instantly remove the privileges afforded to them along racial lines, would they hit that button?

Now here is a powerful question, and one that gets right to the heart of the true extent of inequality in the United States.  Reparations are relatively easy for us to support, since any reparations will necessarily be paid for through tax revenue and, I think, is likely to be relatively insubstantial on a family's bottom line.  Smoot's question, however, dispenses with any theoretical considerations of reparations and straightforwardly demands that Whites should return to Blacks the value they inherited through centuries of slavery and generations of systematic exclusion of Blacks from the opportunities that the parents, grandparents, great grandparents and great great grandparents of Whites benefited from.

What's more, Smoot argues that the donations, the expressions of support, the flag waving and social solidarity afforded the BLM movement by Whites is a way of buying forgiveness of the sin of racism, an exculpatory expression simultaneously of guilt and superiority, an indulgence of the secular church of progressivism.  She writes:

In my direct circle, it has become obvious to me that many of my White peers are at a loss for what to do in this critical moment to prove themselves different from the ones they have come to view as the true agents of White supremacy. I imagine them, phone in hand, scrolling on social media and seeing messages of disdain and moral indictment pointed at them directly. They think to themselves: “I am not the type of White person who would murder someone in the street. I don’t use racial slurs. I voted for Obama. I have Black friends.” Unable to reconcile the dissonance of their allyship being broadly called into question in the digital sphere, these White individuals turn to me, to us, the proverbial “Black friend”, as a cathartic release of such inner turmoil. They want us to vindicate their longstanding inaction – their culpability in White supremacy – by accepting their monetary donations, their well-wishes and genuine feelings of sympathy at what is only now crystalizing in their minds as another sort of pandemic; one which has only ever kept racially marginalized individuals quarantined away from enjoying the liberties promised to all Americans in the governing documents of the nation.

The word "afforded" in this context should ring with dissonance.  It suggests that support for BLM by Whites is as much a form of privilege as any other.  It is a way of Whites saying "my conscience is worth this much, and this much only," to which Smoot rightly responds by questioning how much they've gained through generations of tacit ( at best ) support of White superiority.  She goes on to say:

The truth is, genuine allyship is not kindness, it is not a charitable act, nor is it even a personal commitment to hold anti-racist ideals – it is a fall from grace. Real allyship enacted by White Americans, with a clear objective to make equitable the lived experiences of individuals across racial lines, means a willingness to lose things. Not just the extra $50 in one’s monthly budget by way of donating to an organization working towards racial justice. I mean palpable, incalculable loss. The loss of the charmed life associated with being a White person in America. Refusing a pay raise at one’s job and insisting that it be reallocated to co-workers of color who are undoubtedly being underpaid. The loss of potentially every close relationship with other White friends and family members who refuse to acknowledge or amend their behaviors that reinforce systemic oppression. The loss of bodily safety, by way of physically intervening when violence is being inflicted on to Black bodies.

A "fall from grace," now that is a powerful description.  It denotes a state of being in which one has been gifted a reprieve from the consequences of one's own sins, a reprieve which is moreover unmerited.  For Whites, being a true ally to Blacks means sacrificing all the entitlements and privileges they have - often without thinking of it.  That pay rise which is not shared with people of color, regardless of performance.  ( One might also say so of gender. )  Access to loans, housing, education.  The "charmed" life did not come to be by accident, nor even by one's own hard work.  It came as a result of violence, violence which is still being inflicted on black bodies and brown.

If the benefits of a culture which prizes whiteness often go unnoticed by them, while at the same time prises those benefits from people of color, then the beneficiaries share responsibility for that violence.  As difficult as it is to wake from this ignorance into the uncomfortable knowledge of one's own complicity in these crimes, it is more difficult still to appreciate the vastness of them, and of the true scale the benefits of these crimes has afforded the United States.

One of the key works attempting to understand the value of slavery and its contribution the US economy is The Economics of the Civil War by Roger Ransom.  One way of looking at the problem is to evaluate the value of all slaves in the US at the height of slavery, in 1860.  Ransom presents data suggesting a valuation of nearly $3.5 billion in 1860 dollars.

Normalizing values across this distance of time is difficult, and there are a variety of ways of doing so.  Samuel Williamson and Louis Cain take Ransom and Sutch's data to estimate that the 1860 value of slaves in 2015 dollars comes to between six and thirteen trillion US$.

Wealth in Slaves in Trillions of 2016 dollars
As Measured by the Share of the GDP

Ian Webster at Officialdata.org uses BLS statistics to derive the aggregate increase in inflation from 1860 to 2020, which he puts at 2,989 percent.  Measured this way, the 1860 value of slaves in the US comes to roughly ten and a half trillion, about half of US GDP in 2019.  But this is just a representation of the purchase price for all slaves in 1860.  The real value of slaves was the labor they produced over their working lives.  Williamson and Cain offer a sense of what that value actually was:

While some slaves were rented out for farm and other types of work, most slaves worked on the farms and plantations of their owners. In both cases, the work they did was mostly unskilled, so a comparable measure of the value of these services is reflected in the unskilled wage. In other words, we can assume that to hire a free employee to do the work of a slave would cost the unskilled wage of that day. Thus, a measure of the average value of a slave would be the present value of the net rental cost over the life expectancy of the average slave...Unlike hired hands, slaves were responsible in large part for producing their own room, board, and clothing. Given that the work week today is significantly shorter than in 1850 and that slaves were made to work harder during the same amount of time as free workers, it would take more than one hired hand today to replace the labor supplied by a slave then.

According to Salary.com, the average wage for a general laborer today comes to $16 an hour.  Non-slave industrial work ran between 60 and 70 hours per week by 1860, and had been steadily decreasing since 1840.  In 1860 slaves certainly worked more hours per day than non-slaves, and agricultural work generally demanded more hours than industrial work.  An 80 hour work week is probably a very conservative estimate, then - and that's not counting the work slaves were required to do to maintain their own living standards.  Today that brings the cost of such labor to roughly $66,500 per year.  Williamson and Cain suggest the average working lives of slaves ran to 20 years.  There were one million slaves in the US by 1860, bringing the value of their productive work in 2020 to 66,500,000,000, a value which slaveholders could expect to get twenty times over.  Thus the purchase price of all 1860 slaves today comes to ten and a half trillion $US, and the value over their working lives to roughly twelve trillion.

Now the net value slaveholders actually saw from slavery is hard to evaluate, and the headline numbers here are not representative of that.  Those numbers do represent the gross value generated by those slaves, however, and therefore the value lost to them.  If we consider the potential of interest gained in the intervening 180 years, the total lost revenue to slaves and their families could well be much higher.  There is nevertheless value in simply using these numbers to provide a first approximation of the total value of the labor stolen from Blacks in 2020.  There are 40 million or so blacks, and we estimate some $23 trillion worth of stolen labor, which comes to roughly half a million dollars for every Black person in the US today.

So yeah, giving up that raise doesn't begin to address the problem.

Chapter Review: What is Truth?

“In this book we argue that social factors are essential to the understanding the spread of beliefs, including--especially--false beliefs. We discuss important mechanisms by which false beliefs spread and discuss why, perhaps counterintuitively, these very same mechanisms are often invaluable to us in our attempts to reach truth. .... the spread of ideas from scientists and other experts to the public and to politicians is deeply influenced by social factors--and for this reason is readily manipulated.” -- Cailin O’Connor and James Weatherall, The Misinformation Age: How False Beliefs Spread, pages 11, 17, 2019


This is a review of chapter 1, What is Truth, of the 2019 book, The Misinformation Age: How False Beliefs Spread by Cailin O’Connor and James Weatherall. My review of the whole book is here. This review describes the tactics that modern propagandists use to deceive scientists, policy makers, politicians, social influencers and the public generally.

In this review, I used ‘propaganda’ to mean a tool to deceive one or more people by any means. The book focuses on using social networks to plant, spread and reinforce false beliefs. Inherent in social manipulation, humans are also susceptible to propaganda due to various inherited psychological traits, e.g., a usually weak ability to think rationally in terms of statistics.

Propagandist tactics generally

Four points stand out. First, propagandist deceit usually does not need to be complete among relevant people for it to be effective. Deceiving targeted people and groups can effectively serve the propagandists goal. Second, it is not necessary for propagandists to hold back the spread of belief in actual fact-based truth forever. Instead, by sufficiently blocking belief in truth, propagandists can delay social action for decades. Examples of propagandist-inspired social inaction that was, or still is, effectively maintained for years include social paralysis about the bad health effects of cigarette smoking and the bad environmental effects of our continuing unregulated release of greenhouse gases and other pollutants, including ozone-destroying CFCs.

Since the book was published in 2019, it predated the COVID-19 pandemic. I would add to the propaganda list, the propaganda about COVID-19 and related truths, e.g., anti-facemask propaganda, that the president, conservatives, right wing populists and GOP politicians are spewing on the American people right now, sometimes with lethal consequences.

Third, the authors argue that both political and industrial propaganda are important and can be personally and socially damaging. That scientists, journalists and policy makers can be deceived and used just like everyone else is an important point to keep in mind. Effective propagandists are acutely aware of human social and cognitive traits, flaws and biases that can be used to lead to the spread of false beliefs. For example, humans did not evolve to think in terms of statistics and most (but not all) people don't think that way. Propagandists know this very well and they use it relentlessly and ruthlessly to deceive. The tactic is simple, effective and often very low cost.

A corollary of that relentless ruthlessness is the sheer lack of morality in the propaganda industry. And, it is a very big industry that is called by various names, e.g, public relations firms, marketing firms, etc. There are usually no moral overt qualms about deceiving people or harming them, including killing them. Cigarettes, climate science denial and COVID-19 deceit are good examples. The main propagandist defense is a liability shift to people, society and government under the irrational but incredibly effective rubric called caveat emptor.

 Finally, some of most effective propaganda includes some truth. Some is even based entirely on truth, or what appears to be truth when viewed as the propagandist presents it. Here, information is often manipulated in how it is presented to make anomalies look like the rule or real truth, not the exception or an illusion. This tactic has been and still is used to effectively fool all kinds people, including scientists, policy makers and social influencers. That scientists can still fall for this tactic is disturbing. Among people, they are the ones who are in theory trained to be more rational about statistics and differentiating truth from illusion.

Sometimes humans just cannot help being human and propagandists know this full well. They are also expert at spotting the susceptible minds in the herd. In essence, they are predators expertly trained to look carefully and painstakingly for and find the minds that are susceptible to their message. The predator plies their poison using subtle charms, e.g., intelligent flattery, and not so subtle charms, e.g., funding for research or outright bribery and fraud. Even self-aware and honest scientists have been tricked and used. Dishonest scientists are even better if they are subtle and smart about their dishonesty.

What is Truth?

Fraud: wrongful or criminal deception intended to result in financial or personal gain; a person or thing intended to deceive others, typically by unjustifiably claiming or being credited with accomplishments or qualities

One of the most effective and often low cost tactics the propagandist uses is to fight science with more science. The goals are to create the appearance of controversy and/or doubt about established science showing that cigarette smoking caused lung cancer and other serious diseases. The tobacco industry was extremely successful in creating enough doubt about this that it was able to block meaningful regulations for decades. Big tobacco was absolutely ruthless about this. Not only did the industry create false doubts, they also sometimes flat out lied in their propaganda. To make their propaganda look scientifically sound, they paid ‘experts’ to create an appearance of much more uncertainty and controversy than actually existed in the consensus mainstream. Big tobacco also funded its own research and published data that created doubt about the toxicity of cigarettes while not publishing their studies that confirmed what most scientists already knew and believed. The authors call that tactic selective sharing. I call it at least immoral, evil at worst and in any case, fraud.

Similarly, the chemical industry led by DuPont, mounted a ferocious attack on truth when evidence began to show that the ozone layer in the atmosphere over the south pole developed a hole with hardly any ozone in it. Without ozone, cancer-causing ultraviolet rays from the sun reach the ground. The initial discovery in 1985 was shocking. Many honest scientists did  not believe the data or the analysis, because (1) scientists simply could not believe that ozone levels could fall that far and (2) previous 1970s satellite data detected no loss of ozone in that area. Two experts in satellite data analysis decided to recheck the prior data and discovered that it did show a loss of ozone. The discovery was overlooked because the data analysis software ignored low ozone measurements as anomalies. In the 1970's scientists did not believe that ozone levels could drop as far as they had dropped, so such low measurements were tossed out as being impossible and thus errors in those measurements.

Other 1970's research had shown that CFCs, a common class of widely compounds with over million tons having been made. CFCs could get into the atmosphere and lead to depletion of ozone. Once the meaning of all the data together became clear, the science community was convinced that ozone depletion was real and that CFCs needed to be regulated. That's when DuPont launched its propaganda effort. The major CFC manufacturer, DuPont, bought nationwide ads arguing that it was too soon to regulate CFCs, there was still too much uncertainty in the science and the outright lie that “there is no persuasive evidence” that CFCs can cause ozone depletion. One editorial in an influential chemistry industry publication, Chemical Week, commented: “.... we’re talking about a basically unknown effect on a little-understood phenomenon brought on by a debatable cause. .... One fact is clear: We don’t have the facts. We don’t even know for sure whether there is a problem.”

All of that was blatant lies. There was solid evidence showing the existence of a problem. DuPont was so intent on protecting its revenue stream from making and selling tons of CFCs that it did not hesitate to risk destruction of the ozone layer and attendant bad effects on life on the entire planet. In defending its revenue stream, DuPont propagandists directly attacked the idea of truth itself. In DuPont’s version of reality, there is never enough data to warrant regulation. Knowledge is always uncertain to some extent, and that is true. Nonetheless, when there is enough certainty to act, the propagandists keep attacking truth on the basis of whatever uncertainty there is.

This anti-truth tactic has been used repeatedly by industrial and political propagandists to protect their economic position and/or political power. It is easy to inject uncertainty and doubt in complicated situations, which are common. Therein lies the power of propaganda to block socially useful action. Therein lies some seeds of human self-annihilation.

Global Acceptance of LGBTQ On the Rise

A global divide on admission of LGBTQ communities remains but is narrowing, a new study shows.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-06-25/lgbtq-acceptance-growing-in-us-and-other-countries-over-time

THE GLOBAL PUSH FOR GAY rights around the world has been a long, slow struggle – in some Middle Eastern and African countries, for example, same-sex acts today can bring the death penalty. But public acceptance is increasing, even in culturally conservative countries, according to a global study released on Thursday.

People in the United States, India, South Africa, Japan, South Korea and Mexico have registered the largest gains in public acceptance with gay rights since 2002, according to findings released from the nonpartisan Pew Research Center.

Pew conducted its polling in 34 countries, including the U.S. The study finds public opinion around the world on the acceptance of gay rights is still divided by country, region and economic development, despite substantial change in laws and norms surrounding issues such as same-sex marriage and the rights of LGBTQ communities around the world.

Pew released its survey in June, celebrated as Pride Month in many countries. Pew first began international polling on the acceptance of gay rights in 2002, and 2013 is the last year the organization conducted its study. As in 2013, the data released today reflect public acceptance of gay rights is shaped by the country where people live. People in Western Europe and the Americas are generally more accepting than people in Eastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine, the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa, while people in Asia-Pacific countries are split on the topic.

Those differences are shaped by the economic development of countries, as well as individuals' age, education levels and religious and political views, says Jacob Poushter, the study's lead author and Pew's associate director of global attitudes research.

"Generally, more educated, younger and less religious respondents voiced greater acceptance of homosexuality than those who are less educated, older or more religious," Poushter said in an email.

Pew's study found substantial changes in public opinion. In the United States, for example, 72% today say homosexuality should be accepted, a sharp increase from 46% in 1994 and 51% in 2002, Poushter says.

Among other countries showing major increases in public acceptance of homosexuality since 2002:

• South Africa, which shows a 21-point increase in public acceptance;
• South Korea, where a 19-point increase is shown;

COURTESY OF PEW RESEARCH CENTER

In both Japan and Mexico, just over half said they accepted homosexuality; in 2002; nearly 7 in 10 respondents in today's study now approve.

Even in India, where today a minority (37%) today say they accept homosexuality, that level of approval is a 22-point increase.

Pew conducted the survey from May 13 to Oct. 2, 2019, polling 38,426 people in 34 countries.

The phrasing Pew used in its survey was, "And which one of these comes closer to your opinion? Homosexuality should be accepted by society OR Homosexuality should not be accepted by society." Pew began polling this question in the U.S. in 1994 and expanded globally in 2002.

Pew researchers acknowledge the word "homosexuality" can today be considered archaic but say the word is the most applicable and translatable when asking the question across societies and languages, and has been used in other cross-national research, including the World Values Survey.

Pew's study also found that people in wealthier and more developed economies are more accepting than countries that are less wealthy and developed. Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden, nations with a per-capita gross domestic product of more than $50,000, registered among the highest levels of acceptance. By comparison, less than 2-in-10 respondents in Nigeria, Kenya and Ukraine have per-capita GDPs of less than $10,000, express acceptance.

"Country wealth, measured by GDP per capita, is a still a driving force for attitudes towards acceptance of homosexuality in society, with people in wealthier countries expressing more acceptance than those in less developed economies," Poushter said.

Microphone Drop...

What happens if, as some are predicting, Trump decides to drop the mic and walk away?  Who will take his place on the Republican ticket?  Pence?  Some new nominee?

What do you predict would happen?

Same thing with Biden.  What would happen if Biden keels over?  Who gets to step in?  Bernie?  Is there any official protocol/procedures for this?

Thanks for posting and recommending.