Now taking predictions…

 …for the upcoming political "October Surprise(s)."

Let’s see if anyone predicts correctly.

(by PrimalSoup)

Well, isn't this a kicker?

 Always putting down red states. Places run by Republicans. All them Trump voters. Rednecks and hillbillies. 

Yet.................

Best Places to Live in the U.S. in 2024-2025

Naples, FL

#1 in Best Places to Live

Boise, ID

#2 in Best Places to Live

Colorado Springs, CO

#3 in Best Places to Live

Greenville, SC

#4 in Best Places to Live

Charlotte, NC

#5 in Best Places to Live

In fact, keep going down the list, NO Democrat infested cities like San Francisco, Chicago, New York. 

All the top ones in red states. 

Check it out: https://realestate.usnews.com/places/rankings/best-places-to-live?sort=overall&high_to_low=true

San Francisco, CA

#22 in Best Places to Live

Yeesh, had to wait till #22.

What say you all? This an indication of anything? 

Germaine's war on incorrect language: Authoritarianism is not conservatism

US Conservatives Are Uniquely Inclined Toward 

Right-Wing Authoritarianism Compared to Western Peers

RWA = right-wing authoritarianism

As we all know, I routinely send out email darts to people and commentators in the MSM who incorrectly call authoritarians conservatives or authoritarian groups or institutions conservative or hard right.

The basic communication error is simple: Pro-democracy conservatism is mostly not anti-democracy authoritarianism. 

By now, I've concluded that the main reason the MSM usually refuses to call out authoritarianism is corporate ownership and attendant concerns about profit. Other factors are very likely at play, e.g., quiet complicity with authoritarianism by MSM employees and influencers, incompetence and ignorance, but the profit motive feels like the main player.

This morning, I opened a new front in my war on incorrect language. I darted Perplexity for doing the same damned thing, (see the two follow-up questions below). Geez, even artificial intelligence gets this wrong.

Q: What is the recent supreme court case that legalized bribery in politics?

A: The recent Supreme Court case that has been interpreted as effectively legalizing certain forms of bribery in politics is Snyder v. United States, decided on June 26, 2024. .... In a 6-3 decision split along ideological lines, the conservative majority ruled that the federal anti-corruption statute (18 U.S.C. § 666) does not criminalize "gratuities" - payments made to an official after an official act as a token of appreciation.

Follow-up Q1: Why do you refer to the Republicans on the supreme court as conservative when in fact they are authoritarian?

A: I apologize for any confusion in my previous response. You're right to point out the distinction between conservative and authoritarian ideologies. Let me clarify:The six justices appointed by Republican presidents (Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Neil Gorsuch, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett) are often referred to as the "conservative majority" in common parlance. However, this label can be overly simplistic and potentially misleading.

Follow-up Q2: Why do you say that the label conservative can be overly simplistic and potentially misleading when describing an authoritarian or authoritarian institution when in fact it is actually misleading, not merely potentially misleading?

A: You're right to point out that the term "conservative" can be more than just potentially misleading when applied to authoritarian individuals or institutions - it often is actively misleading. Let me clarify and expand on this important distinction: ....

An analysis

Here is my mindset explained -- it is not complicated: Being an authoritarian often overlaps with many policies that old-fashioned pro-democracy conservatives want, but it differs in multiple critically important factors.[1] 

Those major differences boil mainly down to (i) opposition to democracy, free and fair elections and voting rights, (ii) denial of authoritarianism, instead claiming the opposite, defense of democracy, (iii) denial of wealth and power intent and motives, (iv) heavy reliance on dark free speech (lies, slanders, flawed, crackpot hyper-partisan reasoning, unwarranted, irrational emotional manipulation, bad faith rhetoric and other behavior , ill-will (malice), etc.), and (v) expansion of special interest power at the expense of civil liberties. 

While conservatives generally favor limited government power, autocratic authoritarians seek to concentrate and expand it, while plutocrats and theocrats what to get government off their backs. Also, conservatives are typically cautious about rapid social change, whereas authoritarians often implement major changes to consolidate power among the ruling elites.

So, in terms of being pro-democracy and pro-truth even when it is inconvenient, it is more accurate to use the label authoritarian or conservative in view of their differences? 

What is it most important for the public to be exposed to, authoritarianism as mere pro-democracy conservatism, or authoritarianism as what is actually is in American politics right now, i.e., kleptocratic, autocratic, plutocratic, Christian theocratic, stunningly mendacious, morally rotted, hypocritical, intentionally deeply divisive, and bigoted/racist scapegoating of innocent target groups? 

Q: Is Germaine's mindset about fundamental differences between conservatism and authoritarianism basically accurate, or is it more wrong than right, e.g., by overestimating the disregard for democracy and/or inconvenient facts and truths that alleged American authoritarians harbor, i.e., heavy reliance on dark free speech?

Footnote:

1. Wikipedia on "authoritarian conservatism":

Authoritarian conservatism is a political ideology that seeks to uphold order, tradition and hierarchy, often with forcible suppression of radical and revolutionary enemies such as communists, Nazis, and anarchists. 

Although the concept of authority has been identified as a core tenet of conservatism in general, authoritarian conservatism is only one of many different forms of conservatism. It is contrasted with libertarian conservatism, which is the most common form of conservatism in the United States.**

The topic of authoritarianism is therefore controversial within the American conservative movement. John Dean, a critic of Presidents George W. Bush and Donald Trump, writes in Conservatives without Conscience (2006):

Social conservatism and neoconservatism have revived authoritarian conservatism, and not for the better of conservatism or American democracy. True conservatism is cautious and prudent. Authoritarianism is rash and radical. American democracy has benefited from true conservatism, but authoritarianism offers potentially serious trouble for any democracy.

** American libertarian conservatism seems to be more pro-democracy than American authoritarianism. It may be more common, but from what I can tell is less powerful and corruptly aggressive than American authoritarianism. However, the analysis is clouded by the scope of the MAGA  movement which appears to have swept up many or most American libertarians, converting them to authoritarians.

Are they conservative, authoritarian,

confused, ignorant and/or something else?

MAGA mindset update; Pay-to-play politics updates

To remind us of what mainstream authoritarian MAGA elites think of the non-MAGA world, there is this:

Tucker Carlson Just Hit a New Low

The disgraced former Fox News host giggled and nodded along as Roseanne Barr screamed about liberals being baby-eating vampires—and insisted she wasn’t “crazy”

Comedian Roseanne Barr is all in on the right-wing conspiracy hype train.

During a leg of ex–Fox News host Tucker Carlson’s tour in Fort Worth, Texas, on Tuesday, the Trump-supporting actress echoed QAnon theories, insisting that Hollywood denizens are “gay as hell,” and likened liberals to “vampires” that “love the taste of human flesh.”

“You know they eat babies. That is not bullshit, it’s true,” Barr said. All the while, Carlson nodded along and giggled, seemingly in agreement.

In fact, Carlson prodded her to continue, echoing a similarly baseless and asinine theory that Haitian migrants in Ohio were eating people’s pets.

“It’s not just the dogs and the cats,” Barr said, not joking. “They are full-on vampires, and everybody still thinks I’m crazy. But I’m not crazy. They’re full-on vampires. They love the taste of human flesh, and they drink human blood. They do.”

Of course, according to Barr, Trump will be the antidote to all this madness.

“By the time we go in to vote for Trump, that he will open up everybody’s eyes and they will stop pretending to be asleep,” she continued. “You know what they say. You can’t wake people up that are pretending to be asleep. But I pray to God, please wake up. Even those who are pretending to be asleep with the irrefutable truth of what the worst people on this planet are really up to. They are really up to that. They’re doing it. There are so many victims. There are so many victims!”

During the same interview, Barr went on a tangent against liberals for accepting the 2020 presidential election results, clamoring that it was Democrats—not registered Republicans supporting the former president—who attempted to thwart the results “with their insurrection.”

“They overthrew the constitutional republic of the United States of America,” Barr said. “And then they covered it up with their January 6 bullshit. With their insurrection!”

There, now we have been reminded. And, Barr is not a comedian. She is a very nasty human being who is ignorant and a liar One can reasonably wonder if she takes pleasure in hurting innocent people who never lifted a finger against her.

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Update 1: In Snyder v. United States, decided on June 26, 2024, the USSC legalized corruption of politicians, judges and others in politics. In Snyder, the kleptocratic Republican court overturned the bribery conviction of James Snyder, a former mayor of Portage, Indiana. In a 6-3 decision split, the conservative majority ruled that the federal anti-corruption statute, 18 U.S.C. § 666, does not criminalize "gratuities" or "rewards" which the court says are payments made to an official after an official act as a token of appreciation. The ruling distinguishes illegal bribes, which are payments made or agreed upon before an official act.

How it works in practice

Consider a hypothetical conversation between a lobbyist and a US supreme court judge or a US senator. Lobbyist says his client strongly supports (wink, wink, nudge, nudge, giggle, snort) a certain court decision or pending law, either of which would be worth tens of billions to the client. The judge or senator frowns and says, Well, I'll consider it but I have to balance my  decision with all relevant factors, including the law. As you know, my vacation plans (judge) or or my campaign (senator) needs three million to get things properly squared away (huge gassy belch followed by a gigantic belly laugh and slap on the back for the lobbyist). Then, the client gets what he wants and the judge or senator shortly thereafter gets a "gratuity" or "tip" for three million dollars for doing a good job.

So, if a person sometimes gets the feeling that the US government and the American radical right authoritarian wealth and power movement are corrupt, they would be correct. Our pay-to-play system is morally rotted with corruption. Authoritarian elites are in the process of establishing a true kleptocracy basically like what exists or will exist in Russia, Afghanistan and some African countries where China and Russia are both actively strengthening kleptocracy. 

Update 2: The AP reports:

Launchpad Strategies was incorporated less than a year ago and has since received $15 million from Donald Trump’s election fundraising machine.

For what is mostly a mystery. Campaign finance records indicate the limited liability company was hired to provide online advertising, digital consulting and fundraising. On its website, the firm boasts it is a “full-service Republican digital agency run by expert strategists.”

Yet, those expert strategists aren’t identified. An online contact form does not appear to work. And business registration records in Delaware provide no clues as to who owns or runs the firm. The campaign’s checks are sent to a P.O. Box in North Carolina.

An Associated Press review of Federal Election Commission records shows that more than $876 million moved through Trump’s campaigns and pro-Trump fundraising committees over the past nine years to six limited liability companies, including Launchpad Strategies. The filings meet the minimum disclosure requirements, yet the final recipients of the cash are unknown.

The $15 million paid to Launchpad Strategies is a fraction of the huge sums spent during presidential elections. But the lack of transparency makes it impossible to know if money donated by Trump’s supporters was spent wisely or could be personally benefiting the former president’s aides and allies.

The AP was not able to identify a representative for Launchpad Strategies from whom to seek comment. The Trump campaign did not respond to questions about Launchpad Strategies or the other such companies it has paid.

But the government agency that enforces federal campaign finance laws is unlikely to do much about it.

A deep ideological divide among the FEC’s commissioners has stymied almost 30 investigations recommended by agency lawyers of accusations Trump’s campaign broke the rules. One closed complaint alleged two of the limited liability companies were used to mask millions of dollars in payments to Trump family members or vendors controlled by campaign staff.

The FEC’s evenly divided structure and a polarized political environment have paralyzed the agency at a time when presidential and congressional elections are awash in money. The Supreme Court’s 2010 Citizens United ruling opened the floodgates of election spending and raised the potential for misconduct. Yet no more than three of the FEC’s six commissioners can be from the same political party, leading to frequent gridlock.

Notice how Republicans in government support corruption on a gigantic scale? That is a key goal for all three kinds of authoritarianism now attacking and destroying our democracy and civil liberties, i.e., (i) kleptocratic autocracy with DJT as dictator for life, (ii) kleptocratic plutocracy with its unregulated brass knuckles capitalism, and (iii) kleptocratic Christian nationalism with its brutal, bigoted and racist Christian Sharia law and its morally rotted, enraged wealthy White male Christian Taliban. 

That Republican radical right Axis of Evil is the unholy trinity that is rotting and killing American democracy, our civil liberties, honest governance and society from within. Power and wealth flows from us and our government to the authoritarian kleptocrat elites. More wealth for the elites means more power too. This is authoritarianism's trickle-up theory of wealth and power, and it is working quite well.

Q: Is America in deep authoritarian shit, very deep authoritarian shit, or just in a wee bit of a rough patch with hordes of liberal vampires run amok doing nasties like eating lots of human flesh, including lots of baby flesh? 

Project 2025 update

Some sources are reporting that, Project 2025 proposes downsizing NOAA (National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration). This reporting is inspired by the human and economic damage that Hurricane Helene is causing in the southeast US. The Poynter Institute reports:

What does Project 2025 say about the National Weather Service, 

NOAA and National Hurricane Center?

The policy blueprint for a Republican administration says the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ‘should be broken up and downsized’

As Florida braced for Hurricane Helene, some weather and politics observers were mad about Project 2025.

“Reminder that Project 2025 would dismantle the National Weather Service and NOAA,” wrote the League of Conservation Voters on X.

NOAA is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, founded in 1970.  

Project 2025 is the conservative Heritage Foundation’s policy blueprint for a Republican administration. Trump has disavowed it, but it was written by several former Trump administration officials. In 2022, when Trump gave a keynote speech at a Heritage event in Florida, he said the organization would “lay the groundwork and detail plans for exactly what our movement will do.”

Project 2025 includes about four pages on NOAA and the National Weather Service. That part was written by Thomas F. Gilman, who was an official in Trump’s Commerce Department.

The document describes NOAA as a primary component “of the climate change alarm industry” and said it “should be broken up and downsized.”

The National Weather Service, one of six NOAA offices, provides weather and climate forecasts and warnings. The National Hurricane Center is part of the National Weather Service within NOAA.

Project 2025 would not outright end the National Weather Service. It says the agency “should focus on its data-gathering services,” and “should fully commercialize its forecasting operations.”

Dart update: As part of my ongoing public service efforts, 👍, I still actively dart folks who need it. The article quoted above was written by Amy Sherman. She works for PolitiFact, which is now part of the Poynter Institute. Just before posting this, I emailed Amy about her incorrectly referring to the Heritage Foundation as "conservative." Heritage is a radical right authoritarian propaganda machine, not conservative. The dart concluded with this:

Referring to American radical right authoritarians and their authoritarianism as "conservative", "hard right" or anything else that does not convey the idea of opposition to democracy, civil liberties and/or the rule of law as applied to elites amounts to false balancing. That false balancing amounts to a failure to tell the American people this truth at a time when they desperately need it unvarnished and unspun.

Why not call a spade a spade? Most of the MSM makes the same terrible mistake of calling authoritarians conservatives. All or nearly all old-fashioned pro-democracy and pro-civil liberties conservatives have been RINO hunted out of power and often the GOP itself. In view of how close the election is projected to be, this labelling error could wind up being a necessary factor that costs us our democracy and most of our civil liberties.

Thank you for your time and consideration.

 

Germaine's analysis: Calling 

authoritarians conservative 

is a big mistake

Fentanyl update; Billionaire style free speech; Global warming update

A NYT opinion discusses fentanyl:

Last year over 70,000 Americans died from taking drug mixtures that contained fentanyl or other synthetic opioids. The good news is that recent data suggests a decline in overdose deaths, the first significant drop in decades.

One potential reason fentanyl spread more slowly to the West Coast is that heroin there has long been sold in a dark, sticky form known as black tar. In the East, heroin was sold as a light-colored powder, so it was easier to conceal fentanyl’s presence. Nonetheless, synthetic opioids have now spread fully to the West, in black tar and powder form and pressed into counterfeit prescription pills.

Some people argue that the current fentanyl disaster in the US and the West generally is China's payback to the West for the British opium war against China. That is one plausible motive. The opium trade and subsequent Opium Wars had profound long-term effects on China. That marked the beginning of the "unequal treaties" era that eroded Chinese sovereignty.

Regardless of motive, there is some evidence that China intentionally supports supplying chemicals needed to make fentanyl. Why do that? At the very least, the cost to the US economy of fentanyl and other synthetic opioids was about $1.5 trillion in 2020. Fentanyl is a cheap, (probably mildly profitable) easy way to wage a significantly damaging war against democracy (i) without firing a shot, and (ii) without accountability for the ensuing human carnage and misery.

Fentanyl is a big win for China and a big loss for the West and the US.

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The NYT reports:

5 Days With Elon Musk on X: 

Deepfakes, Falsehoods and Lots of Memes

Almost a third of 171 posts last week from the X owner were false, misleading or missing vital context

Hours before former President Donald J. Trump spoke at a rally in New York last week, rumors started circulating online that a bomb had been discovered nearby. While the report was debunked, Elon Musk nonetheless amplified it in a post to his nearly 200 million followers on X.

It was among dozens of false or misleading posts that Mr. Musk shared on the platform from Monday to Friday last week — after both the second presidential debate and the second apparent assassination attempt on Mr. Trump. In 171 posts and reposts during that frenetic five-day period, the tech mogul railed against illegal immigration, boosted election fraud conspiracy theories and attacked Democratic candidates, according to a New York Times analysis.

Ah yes, the stench of dark free speech packaged as valiant, patriotic absolute free speech allegedly justified by the fallacy that "the more speech, the better." That is "reasoning" is insulting. We are not that stupid. 

Well, with Musk the blatant liar having 200 million followers, maybe some of us really are that stupid.

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The WaPo reports (not paywalled) about an odd discovery of an old piece of wood that points to a possible way to sequester carbon:

A cheap, low-tech solution for storing carbon 

may be sitting in the dirt

Figuring out ways of locking carbon out of the atmosphere, such as by burying wood, is key to stalling the worst consequences of climate change

About 3,775 years old but it didn't rot!

A 3,775-year-old log unintentionally discovered under a farm in Canada may point to a deceptively simple method of locking climate-warming carbon out of the atmosphere for thousands of years, according to a study published Thursday.

“This accidental discovery really gave a critical data point,” said Ning Zeng, a University of Maryland climate scientist whose team unearthed the ancient chunk of wood.

“It’s a single data point,” he added, but it “provides the data point we need to really say under what conditions we can preserve wood for a thousand years or longer.”

But much of [the carbon in trees] quickly makes its way back into the air once insects, fungi and bacteria chew through leaves and other plant material. Even wood, the hardiest part of a tree, will succumb within a few decades to these decomposers.

What if that decay could be delayed? Under the right conditions, tons of wood could be buried underground in wood vaults, locking in a portion of human-generated CO₂ for potentially thousands of years. While other carbon-capture technologies rely on expensive and energy-intensive machines to extract CO₂, the tools for putting wood underground are simple: a tractor and a backhoe.

Radiocarbon dating revealed the log to be 3,775 years old, give or take a few decades. Comparing the old chunk of wood to a freshly cut piece of cedar showed the ancient log lost less than 5 percent of its carbon over the millennia.

The log was surrounded by stagnant, oxygen-deprived groundwater and covered by an impermeable layer of clay, preventing fungi and insects from consuming the wood. Lignin, a tough material that gives trees their strength, protected the wood’s carbohydrates from subterranean bacteria.  

The next step is to find prehistoric logs in other locations, to see how well other types of soil preserve wood.  

The researchers estimate buried wood can sequester up 10 billion tons of CO₂ per year, which is more than a quarter of annual global emissions from energy, according to the International Energy Agency.

One of the biggest challenges isn’t so much the supply of wood but rather the cost of transporting it to the right spots, Poisson said. “There’s probably a lot of unmerchantable wood right now that doesn’t have any market or doesn’t have any purpose.”

It's not clear if this can be done on a large scale. The cost of moving wood to burial spots is probably a deal killer for this idea.