Measuring Burdens on Personal Liberty: Facemasks

It's analysis time, analysis fans

Liberty: roughly, what one is allowed to do by law

Freedom: roughly, what one actually can do, legal or not

Context

Back in 2015 after the Supreme Court Obergefell v Hodges decision legalizing same-sex marriage, there was a huge outcry from people who opposed it. The arguments against Obergefell tended to speak in terms of an impending apocalypse. Religious liberties would be crushed and so would free speech. Those claims seemed to be overblown and usually irrational or incoherent. But when I searched, there was no published analysis I could find that did a cold, neutral analysis of what exactly burdens and benefits would come from legalized same-sex marriage and what groups of people would be affected.

In frustration, I decided to do my own analysis. After about 100 hours of searching, thinking about how to do the analysis and then doing it, I concluded that for the most part there was no impending apocalypse. The burdens on most people were low to trivial to non-existent. The people who got whacked hardest were business owners in the 22 or 23 states that had laws prohibiting discrimination in commerce. Those people and their businesses could be fined into bankruptcy for refusing to provide goods or services to same sex couples. You know, wedding cakes and wedding photos. But in terms of actual religious practice or speech, Obergefell imposed little or no burden on most people. And, Obergefell forced no couple to get married against their will, and it prevented no couple who wanted to marry from getting married.[1] Before Obergefell, in some states same-sex couples who wanted to marry could not get married. That was truly liberty crushing for those people.

The other thing that was problematic, was the almost total silence of the anti-same sex marriage argument about the benefits to same-sex couples. That was rarely or never mentioned. Most people who engaged in this complaint were almost totally self-centered. They could not care less what benefits others might enjoy from the new legal landscape. They mostly cared only about themselves based on their usually grossly exaggerated fears.

Facemasks & COVID-19: A quick seat of the pants analysis

Today, some people are refusing to wear face masks in public because they argue it is a large burden on their liberty. Some claim health regulations that require wearing facemasks in public is outright tyranny. Some state governors have compared it to living in China. As was the case with same-sex marriage, the complaints about facemasks imposing tyranny-level burdens on personal liberty (i) seem grossly exaggerated, and (ii) conveniently ignore the benefits to other people and society as a whole.

So, what might a cost-benefit analysis look like? Just collect some data, make some reasonable assumptions and think it through.

Current data indicates that the COVID-19 death rate is about 2.25% by dcleve's estimate. Assume it is 2% to keep things simple and not exaggerated. The benefits of not wearing a face mask vary from person to person. People like me who wear glasses are arguably higher because without a mask, my glasses aren't fogged most of the time. I find foggy glasses to be annoying and occasionally interfering with something I want to do, e.g., read the label on a product in the grocery store, which I often do for various reasons. I sometimes need to take my foggy glasses off to see or read. For people who do not wear glasses, this is a non-existent burden on their liberty to see freely without fog. The other burden that facemasks impose on some people is simply psychological discomfort. Some folks don't like facemasks for one or more of various reasons including:

1. they don't like the way they look and are inconvenient to wear
2. they are socially and/or psychologically uncomfortable with how face masks impair human social or interpersonal interactions, e.g., by hiding facial expressions thereby creating uncertainty and social or psychological discomfort
3. they feel they are not loyal enough to Trump or their own tribe when they wear a face mask
4. they feel that wearing a face mask supports democrats too much
5. buying a face mask usually costs money
6. they believe that COVID-19 is a hoax or the pandemic has passed and it is time to move on

For people who are not yet infected with COVID-19, the benefits of facemasks are that the odds of them becoming become infected are reduced. Existing data indicates that facemasks reduce the spread of virus from infected people to others and they reduce the odds that an uninfected person will get infected. Thus, masks work two ways to reduce the infection rate. That should allow some people who want to ride this pandemic out until a drug and/or vaccine is developed.

Simple logic and existing data indicates that people who do not wear face masks will spread virus to others and kill about 2% of them. If we stop trying to slow the virus spread and take no measures, one can assume that we will develop herd immunity the old fashioned way, e.g., by all out plague. Herd immunity is estimated to require about 80% of all people to have been infected. If one assumes that the American population is 320 million and 80% get infected and 2% of them die, then about 5.12 million Americans will die. Obviously, not wearing a facemask imposes the greatest possible burden there could be on that many people, i.e., it kills them. And, as dcleve's analysis indicated, it is reasonable to expect that at least another ~5 million will suffer serious long-term injury.

I will just assume that if we go into full blown plague mode, the cost to the economy will be ~$3 trillion the first year and another ~$2 trillion the next year. That is in addition to the trillions it has already cost (~ $5 trillion?). The costs could be, and probably would be, much higher. But, it is best to be conservative to avoid being called an effing liar.

Thus, wearing a face imposes what I consider to be a low liberty burden on individuals. People who oppose wearing a facemask and call it tyranny are grossly exaggerating. Probably most more rational people who oppose wearing facemasks will claim the liberty burden is moderate to high. Few or no people who oppose mandatory facemask wearing will even acknowledge that refusal to wear  a facemask will cause many deaths, certainly nothing remotely close to 5 million.

If one assumes the foregoing quick, informal analysis reasonably describes the cost-benefit situation, is the benefit of wearing facemasks much greater than the costs, somewhat greater, about the same, less, or much less? For individuals and their situation? For American society and its economy?

I suspect that most people who looks at it like this will conclude the benefits outweigh the costs for society and maybe also for individuals. I suspect that most Trump supporters will conclude the costs outweigh the benefits.



Footnote:
1. The anaylses are here for burden on liberty in commerce and here for burden on religious practice and speech for people who may be interested in the concept of one way to measure burdens and benefits when liberties are in conflict, or at least alleged to be. This way of thinking about liberties in conflict cuts through a lot of bullshit and lies very effectively.

That is probably why one doesn't see such analyses very often if ever. I do not know how many, if any, analyses like these are being done by experts or professionals. IMO, this sort of cost-benefit analysis and thinking should be front and center every single time people whine about how badly they are being oppressed. My guess is that most of the complaints (~80% ?) are either exaggerated or grossly exaggerated. The complainers rarely or never even mention benefits -- they only howl about the costs to them and/or their tribe. IMO, that tactic is a form of dark free speech called lying by omission.