NATO Secretary General states that Russia invaded Ukraine to keep NATO out

The idea that Russia's chief reason for fighting against Ukraine (since 2014, but especially 2022) is to prevent  NATO membership for that country has been called a myth, falsehood and Russian propaganda . This is the case despite warnings from policy experts, and  diplomats including a stark warning from now-CIA chief, Nicholas Burns. In a memo to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Burns wrote, 

"Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all red lines for the Russian elite (not just Russian President Vladimir Putin). In more than two-and-a-half years of conversations with key Russian players, from knuckle-draggers in the dark recesses of the Kremlin to Putin's sharpest liberal critics, I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests."

Burns also wrote a classified assessment of the Bush plan to admit Ukraine into NATO called "Nyet means Nyet" available at Wikileaks.  I've written about all this before in some detail here. I restate the denials of the importance of the NATO enlargement issue only to set up the following clip of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg  speaking on just this subject earlier this month . It is from his opening remarks to the EU Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs and its Subcommittee on Security and Defense given on Sept. 2, 2023 in Brussels. The clip is from UK Declassified, and below it is a partial transcription of his remarks, and a few supplementary  documents that he mentions to make his point.

After discussing the continuing enlargement of NATO including Finland and Sweden,  Jens Stoltenberg states that:

" The background was that President Putin declared in the autumn of 2021, and actually sent a draft treaty that they wanted NATO to sign, to promise no more NATO enlargement. That was what he sent us. And was a pre-condition for not invade Ukraine. Of course we didn't sign that.

The opposite happened. He wanted us to sign that promise, never to enlarge NATO. He wanted us to remove our military infrastructure in all Allies that have joined NATO since 1997, meaning half of NATO, all the Central and Eastern Europe, we should remove NATO from that part of our Alliance, introducing some kind of B, or second class membership. We rejected that. 

So he went to war to prevent NATO, more NATO, close to his borders. He has got the exact opposite. He has got more NATO presence in eastern part of the Alliance..."

What happened in 2021 prior to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia? This is part of the background to which Stoltenberg alludes above.

A) In November,  US and Ukraine signed a US-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership. Some of the passages that the Russians found concerning are quoted below. The Charter can be read in full here.

"Guided by the April 3, 2008 Bucharest Summit Declaration of the NATO North Atlantic Council and as reaffirmed in the June 14, 2021 Brussels Summit Communique of the NATO North Atlantic Council, the United States supports Ukraine’s right to decide its own future foreign policy course free from outside interference, including with respect to Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO.... The United States and Ukraine endorse the 2021 Strategic Defense Framework as the foundation of enhanced Ukraine-U.S. defense and security cooperation and intend to work to advance shared priorities, including implementing defense and defense industry reforms, deepening cooperation in areas such as Black Sea security, cyber defense, and intelligence sharing, and countering Russia’s aggression...The United States remains committed to assisting Ukraine with ongoing defense and security reforms and to continuing its robust training and exercises. The United States supports Ukraine’s efforts to maximize its status as a NATO Enhanced Opportunities Partner to promote interoperability."

 

The Russians had long sought guarantees that Ukraine and Georgia would not join NATO.  The US and NATO ruled out any such concessions. Russian troops Spring and then again Fall of 2021 were amassed ominously around much of Ukraine's borders signalling a possible invasion. It is in this context that the US-Ukraine Partnership was signed, sending a clear message to Moscow-- i.e.  troop buildup or no, NATO welcomes Ukraine, and the US will work with Ukraine to arm and advise them  to counter Russian aggression.

NATO membership and US-Ukraine military and intel cooperation on Russia's border have always been major drivers of the conflict, whatever US media says. Here is another clip, this one of Zelensky's former  advisor (2020-2023), Oleksii Arestovych.  He discusses candidly the fact that "[Ukraine's]price for membership in NATO is a big war with Russia"-- a "full scale war" with Russia, he says, in which Ukraine's population, cities, and infrastructure will be "devastated." (See subtitles in vid below).  When this interview was filmed in 2019,  Arestovych was an intelligence officer, and was aware of just how important it was for Russia to keep Ukraine out of NATO at all costs. He was clear-eyed about the consequence of Ukraine's  NATO aspirations being a brutal, full-scale war.  As is evident in this clip, he predicted with some prescience the course of future events.