As noted here many times, including in some blog posts (here, here and here), most experts, pundits, blowhard political commentators, politicians, investigative journalists and the like suck at predicting the future. The accuracy of their predictions is just barely better than random guessing. Some are significantly worse than random guessing. Open-minded, non-ideologues pragmatists tend to outperform ideologues, but neither group does nearly as well as a moderately sophisticated statistical algorithm (autoregressive distributed lag or ARDL** in the tables below).
** In professional and academic circles, ARDL occupies an intermediate space: it is not a basic or beginner-level algorithm but is also not at the cutting edge of statistical complexity. It's viewed as moderately sophisticated and used for its versatility and accessibility in applied research, like humans predicting the future.
ideol. = ideologue
Sure algorithms and even artificial intelligence have their blind spots and lack human judgment and ability to put things in context. But humans are biased, emotional and and social context-sensitive in how they see reality and how they think about it. About 98-99% of human reality perception and thinking about politics is unconscious. Very little of that biased processing ever reaches the level of human consciousness.
FWIW, Pxy describes itself like this:
Unlike traditional search engines, Pxy focuses on accurate summarization and contextual understanding rather than just link aggregation. Pxy’s proprietary algorithms enable it to perform multi-step reasoning, data extraction, and source validation at scale. It distinguishes itself from general-purpose AI models by specializing in information retrieval and presentation optimization.
So, I asked Pxy questions pertaining to the fate of our democracy and rule of law.
Q8: Estimate the approximate % likelihood that political messaging grounded in honest but sophisticated speech can sufficiently overcome the inherent advantages of sophisticated demagoguery and dishonest speech for Democrats to take control of either the House or Senate after the 2026 mid-term elections. Is there evidence that most Democratic Party elites and their messaging has come to grips with the weaknesses in their own messaging leading up to the 2024 elections? What is the approximate % likelihood that if Republicans maintain control of both the House and Senate after the 2026 elections, that American democracy and rule of law will fall to some form of MAGA authoritarianism, with elections no longer being competitive or meaningful.A8: Based on extensive research into political messaging effectiveness, I estimate the likelihood that honest, sophisticated political messaging can sufficiently overcome the inherent advantages of sophisticated demagoguery for Democrats to control either the House or Senate after the 2026 midterm elections at approximately 25-35%.The Inherent Advantages of Sophisticated Demagoguery
Research reveals that demagogic messaging possesses several structural advantages that make it particularly effective in contemporary political environments:
Cognitive and Emotional Advantages: Studies show that demagogues successfully exploit fundamental aspects of human psychology. As research on Trump's messaging demonstrates, demagogues use "weaponized communication" - the strategic use of communication as both an instrumental tool and aggressive means to gain compliance while avoiding accountability. This approach capitalizes on what researchers call "participatory propaganda," where supporters embrace false claims not because they believe them, but as acts of political loyalty.
Simplicity and Emotional Resonance: The research consistently shows that demagogic messaging benefits from being inherently simpler and more emotionally engaging than sophisticated honest discourse. As one analysis notes, "demagogues speak combatively, love hecklers, and thrive off interacting with crowds".
Democratic Party Elite Awareness of Messaging Weaknesses: 60-70% Likelihood
The evidence suggests that approximately 60-70% of Democratic Party elites have come to grips with the weaknesses in their messaging leading up to the 2024 elections, though this awareness varies significantly across different segments of the party..... long analysis ....Risk of Authoritarian Transition: 40-50% Likelihood
If Republicans maintain control of both the House and Senate after the 2026 elections, I estimate the likelihood that American democracy and rule of law will fall to some form of MAGA authoritarianism at approximately 40-50%.
Conclusion
The research reveals a sobering reality: sophisticated demagoguery possesses significant structural advantages over honest political messaging in contemporary American politics. While Democratic Party elites show meaningful awareness of their messaging failures, their ability to implement effective solutions remains limited by internal divisions and institutional constraints.
The risk of authoritarian transition represents a genuine threat, though one that remains contested and potentially reversible. ....
Ooh, that scores a double Rut Roh!! exclamation of alarm for democracy and the Democratic Party on the Alarm-O-Meter.
Pxy was asked (~Q9-Q12) if it was about as accurate as a human making the same predictions and it said it was as good as a human or better. So I asked it to redo its predictions (1) first using the ARDL statistical algorithm that Philip Tetlock used in his research on the art and science of predicting the future, and then (2) a redo of the predictions a 3rd time taking into account recent USSC decisions and the damage that MAGA has already inflicted on the separation of powers, democratic institutions and democratic norms.
In the first redo, things changed a little for the better for democracy, and a little for the worse for Democrats, when Pxy used only ARDL to analyze the data and make its 2026 mid-term election predictions. But the 2nd redo came out worse from both democracy and the Democratic Party when current events are factored into the analysis:
Original vs ARDL-Adjusted Predictions:
1. Honest Messaging Success (Democrats controlling House or Senate)
Original estimate: 25% (17-33% range)
2nd ARDL-adjusted estimate: 15% (95% CI: 8-22%) [that's very bad ☹️]
Reasoning: The Supreme Court's grant of prosecutorial immunity and unitary executive powers creates structural advantages for authoritarian messaging that have no historical precedent
2. Democratic Party Elite Awareness of Messaging Problems
Original estimate: 55% (47-63% range)
2nd ARDL-adjusted estimate: 45% (95% CI: 37-53%) [that's bad ☹️]
Reasoning: The systematic capture of law enforcement and elimination of oversight mechanisms reduces elite incentives to acknowledge messaging failures
3. Authoritarian Transition Risk (if GOP controls both chambers)
Original estimate: 55% (40-50% range)
2nd ARDL-adjusted estimate: 65% (95% CI: 27-43%) [that's very bad ☹️]
Reasoning: The combination of Supreme Court decisions and institutional damage creates a "constitutional crisis" that historical data cannot capture
Well, that scores a triple Rut Roh!! exclamation of alarm for democracy and the Democratic Party.
Rut Roh, Rut Roh, Rut Roh!!
Q: (i) Does the Dem Party need to suck it up, blow it out and get with a better messaging program, or (ii) is Chuck Schumer and the rest of the ossified old guard just gonna keep on mumbling, fumbling and stumbling, as they lead the way into a future of oblivion and irrelevance, or (iii) are predictions mostly to completely meaningless?