Context
Polls are sometime misleading. The farther away the election, the less predictive the poll. Polls can miss because of sampling error, nonresponses, weighting choices, or wording effects. It’s usually best to treat a single poll as a snapshot, not rock solid truth. Despite weaknesses, polls are usually only practical way to for the public get a feel for public sentiment. Poll data is sometimes reasonably accurate. Some people believe that their personal experiences and knowledge accurately reflect majority public sentiment. Nearly all of those people are wrong too often to be taken seriously because personal opinions are not reliable substitutes for systematic polling.
The CNN poll
A recent CNN poll, Americans doubt Trump is paying enough attention to the country’s most pressing issues, released data that feels reasonably accurate and unusually important. Several data points seem to reflect a new, growing understanding of Trump. They are (1) Trump’s public approval is 34%, (2) 73% say he is out of touch with ordinary Americans, (3) 66% say he he does not put the country’s good above personal gain, and (4) 57% say he lacks the stamina and sharpness to serve effectively. Collectively, those data points suggest that a significant portion of the American people have MAGA policy fatigue coupled with an apparently major public rejection of his character, self-dealing (corruption), and fitness to govern. Apparently, Trump’s incompetence and corruption are finally sinking in with a lot of people.
For people who have been arguing Trump’s extraordinary self-centered corruption and incompetence for years, this looks like a little bit of long-overdue vindication. But is it also frustrating that it has taken so damned long for this partial public awareness of what has been and should have been obvious at least since 2017. Will this public understanding make any difference in terms of defense of democracy, the rule of law and civil liberties against Trump and his corrupt MAGA authoritarian onslaught? There is no way to know. This may already be too little, and too late.
Q: Is it reasonable to assert that (1) even with this poll’s mild wording, most Americans now see Trump as venal, self-interested, and unfit, and (2) CNN’s data analysis treats this as evidence that “late-stage Trumpism” is losing its grip because public skepticism is no longer limited to one scandal or one issue, but instead it extends to Trump’s core persona and abuse of power?
Info sources:
Key Points to Remember About Polling in the Run-up to Election Day — Pre-election polls can be helpful in thinking about what to expect on Election Day, but they are not predictions of the election outcomes.
Election polls are 95% confident but only 60% accurate — we have found that the actual vote total for a given candidate fell within the 95% confidence interval for just 60% of the polls. This degree of accuracy was reached only when the polls were conducted in the week before an election; accuracy was worse for polls conducted earlier. ….. when laypeople read about poll results, they tend to overestimate the poll’s accuracy
We’ve Officially Entered the Twilight of Late-Stage Trumpism — It’s all there in a new CNN poll, and it’s heartening to see: Large majorities are sick of Donald Trump’s vanity, venality, and megalomania.
Trump Holds the American People in Total Contempt — To say that President Trump is corrupt is to somehow understate the size, scope and magnitude of his corruption. ….. Trump’s corruption, which is so vast as to be a new phenomenon in American politics. The president and his family have leveraged his office to the tune of nearly $4 billion.
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