What kind of government is the United States becoming under Trump’s second term?If you’re confused by the headlines—Elon Musk apologizing, GOP senators
expressing fear, Republicans voting for bills they privately
dislike—you’re not alone. But there’s a pattern: power is now personal,
transactional, and enforced by loyalty to Trump. It’s not, as many
believe, simply about ideology (like Christian Nationalism or the
America First movement) or wealth (such as the so-called “tech bro
oligarchy” or the donor class). In Trumpworld 2.0, neither ideological
purity nor vast fortune is enough: what matters most is personal
allegiance to the leader.
What Is “Personalism”—and Why Does It Matter?
Personalism means a system where all meaningful
power is concentrated in one leader, not shared among a coalition of
elites or institutions. In Trumpworld 2.0, even the wealthiest and most
powerful figures—tech titans, senators, CEOs—function as courtiers.
Their status depends not on their money or ideas, but on whether they
please the man at the top.
This isn’t classic oligarchy (rule by a stable group of
elites), nor is it old-school dictatorship or military rule. Instead,
it’s a hybrid regime: part democracy, part strongman show, with a heavy
dose of crony capitalism and kleptocracy.
Quick Definitions
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Personalism: Rule by one leader, not by party or coalition.
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Kleptocracy: A system where government power is used for personal enrichment and patronage.
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Competitive Authoritarianism: A hybrid regime where elections and
institutions exist, but the playing field is so tilted that real
competition is hollowed out—Hungary under Viktor Orbán, for example, is
widely recognized as a clear example of a hybrid regime. The United States under Trump shows signs of moving decisively toward
becoming an electoral autocracy, not unlike Hungary—a comparison now
drawn by both scholars and major news outlets.
The Evidence: How Trump’s System Works
1. The GOP: Fear, Compliance, and the Cost of Dissent
The passage of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB)
in July 2025 is the clearest sign yet of how tightly he controls his
party. Despite widespread misgivings and the bill’s deep unpopularity,
nearly every Republican in Congress ultimately supported it, setting
aside their own pledges and policy positions. As The Atlantic
reported, lawmakers from both moderate and conservative wings abandoned
their red lines—on Medicaid, deficits, or local priorities—rather than
risk a confrontation with the president.
Senator Lisa Murkowski’s story says it all. In public
remarks, she admitted, “we are all afraid” (Reuters, April 18, 2025) of political retaliation from
Trump, describing her own anxiety and the “real” threat that keeps even
senior Republicans from speaking out. She ultimately voted for the bill
after negotiating carve-outs for Alaska, despite calling it “a bad
bill, ” and noting that it will hurt Americans. Other senators who initially objected to the bill’s provisions,
like Josh Hawley and Ron Johnson, also reversed course under pressure.
The cost of dissent is so high that even lawmakers with strong
ideological or constituency-based objections ultimately comply.
Other cases reinforce the pattern:
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Rand Paul was uninvited from the White
House picnic after opposing Trump’s bill, a move he called “petty
vindictiveness.” He went on to state, "They’re afraid of what I’m saying, so they think they’re going to punish
me, I can’t go to the picnic...But petty
vindictiveness like this, it makes you — it makes you wonder about the
quality of people you’re dealing with.”No GOP figures defended him. After bad press, Trump announced Paul was welcome to the event.(NBC News, July 12, 2025)
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Thom Tillis voted against the bill, was attacked
as "worse than Rand Paul" and"A talker and complainer. NOT A DOER!”(The
Hill, 6/29/25) He was threatened with primaries, leading to his
retirement. Since Tillis stepped down, Trump-- true to loyalist form--
announced his number one pick for a replacement is his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump (Newsweek, July 1, 2025).
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Thomas Massie criticized the bill for
adding $20 trillion in debt, earning Trump’s ridicule as “Rand Paul
Junior” and threatened with a primary. "He's going to have a big opponent, a good opponent, who's going to
win. A poll just came out, and it showed anybody I endorse against
Massie, Massie loses by 25 points. So he's he's gonna be history I
think." (Fox News, 7/1/25)
The result? Loyalty to Trump trumps all else. The party is no longer a coalition of interests, but a vehicle for his authority.
The Sycophantic Spectacle: Ritualizing Party Subordination
The passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) was
marked not only by the near-total compliance of Republican lawmakers,
but by an extraordinary display of orchestrated loyalty. As soon as the
House approved the bill, Speaker Mike Johnson and the Republican caucus
staged a celebration that was anything but spontaneous. Trump’s rally
anthem “YMCA” blared through the chamber, and lawmakers lined up to pose
with double thumbs-up—Trump’s signature gesture—while some performed
his trademark fist-pump dance.
This was not the exuberance of a party unified by shared
conviction. Behind the music and smiles, many lawmakers were privately
uneasy or outright opposed to the bill’s substance, having voted “yes”
only after securing carve-outs or under the threat of presidential
retaliation. The outward display of unity was, in reality, a performance
compelled by fear and the logic of personalist discipline.
The moment functioned as a public ritual: a sycophantic
Congress signaling to the country and to Trump himself that dissent had
been purged and only loyalty remained. It was the legislative equivalent
of a “Trump salute,” a symbolic act that announced—without a word being
spoken—that the GOP’s transformation from a coalition of interests to a
vehicle for one man’s authority was complete. The event did not simply
celebrate a policy win; it made unmistakable that the party’s identity
is now defined by personal allegiance to Trump, not by shared principles
or policy consensus.
This spectacle, staged at the very moment of new
national legislation passing, was the culmination of weeks of
intra-party discipline: dissenters like Rand Paul, Thom Tillis, Thomas
Massie, and Lisa Murkowski had been publicly humiliated, threatened, or
driven to retirement. The House celebration was not a celebration of
legislative achievement, but a ritualized affirmation of Trump’s
personal dominance—a warning to any who might consider defiance in the
future.
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2. The Executive Branch: Loyalism, Overreach, and Patronage
Trump’s personalist system extends control far beyond party politics to the machinery of government itself.
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DOGE and Project 2025: The Department
of Government Efficiency (DOGE), once led by Elon Musk, is now under
Russ Vought’s control. Its mission: mass layoffs, embedding loyalists,
and sidelining Congress in favor of direct presidential power.
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The Musk Episode: Musk, after
criticizing Trump’s bill as a “debt bomb,” faced threats of contract
losses and even deportation. Musk, who had apologized for earlier critical remarks against Trump, once again backed down,
writing on X “So tempting to escalate this. So, so tempting. But I
will refrain for now.” (The Guardian, July 1, 2025) Even the world’s
richest man is subordinate to Trump’s will.
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Kleptocratic Integration: The
administration’s rescission of $11 billion in research grants was
described as “targeted retaliation” against critical universities.
(Inside Higher Ed, 5/2/25) Loyalist firms like Palantir have secured
lucrative no-bid contracts.
Inspectors general who challenged the administration were fired without
notice. Deportations to dangerous countries like South Sudan proceeded
despite court injunctions, with accusations of “unprecedented defiance”.
All levers of state power are ultimately subject to Trump’s personal
authority.
3. The Judiciary: Loyalty Over Principle
Even the courts, traditionally a check on executive power, are being reshaped to serve Trump’s interests.
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Break with the Federalist Society:
Trump called Leonard Leo a “sleazebag” and “America hater” after their
judges ruled against him, clearing the way for the rise of the Article
III Project (A3P), which prioritizes loyalty over principle in judicial
nominations, and openly boasts of being a "brass knuckles" Trump loyalist pipeline on their own web site.
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Attacks on Judicial Independence: Trump
and A3P label GOP-appointed judges “rogue” for unfavorable rulings,
proposing funding cuts or impeachment. When a federal judge blocked
Trump’s border crackdown, the White House called it “an attack on our
Constitution.” A recent Supreme Court ruling limiting nationwide
injunctions further enables Trump’s defiance of judicial checks.
Why This Matters: The Big Picture
Trump’s system is not just about policy or ideology. It’s about personal
loyalty, patronage, and the subordination of all institutions—Congress,
executive agencies, the judiciary, and civil society—to one man’s will.
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Why Ideology Yields to Loyalty: Even ideologically aligned figures like Massie and populist icons like Musk are punished if they cross Trump.
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Kleptocratic Infrastructure: Defunding universities and firing inspectors general removes oversight, enabling patronage networks that sustain Trump’s power.
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Elite Subordination: From Musk’s DOGE leadership to Vought’s Project 2025, all power centers are kept dependent and revocable.
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Digital Personalism: Unlike
state-controlled media in other regimes, Truth Social creates a
decentralized echo chamber amplifying Trump’s attacks, with standards
set only by his will, circumventing both media and social media
constraints. Thus, Trump has his own "digital bully pulpit"-- at once a
private business, and his main outlet for undiluted statements that
inevitably are amplified in media and social media outlets.
The regime’s reliance on Trump’s charisma and personal
authority makes it potentially brittle. As Murkowski put it, “we are all
afraid.” Should Trump’s grip weaken, the coalition could fracture
rapidly.
Conclusion: Not a Done Deal—But the Stakes Are High
Trump’s personalist capture of the GOP and federal
government—infused with kleptocracy and crony capitalism—threatens the
separation of powers, rule of law, and democratic stability. The process
remains ongoing, contested, and volatile. Unlike entrenched
oligarchies, personalist systems often collapse after the leader’s exit,
but as institutional capture proceeds, the window for democratic
recovery narrows.
Why does this matter? Because
understanding the system is the first step toward defending democracy.
If you see more signs of personalist rule, crony capitalism, or elite
subordination, share your observations below—or ask questions about what
to watch for next.
Key sources: The Atlantic, Reuters, NBC News, Fox
News, Inside Higher Ed, and more. For a full list of references and
further reading, see the endnotes in the original full-length essay from which this was adapted. .
Endnotes
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European Parliament: Hungary as a hybrid regime.
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NPR: Political scientists on US democratic backsliding.
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AP: Trump’s GOP likened to Hungary’s “electoral autocracy.”
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Russell Berman, “No One Loves the Bill (Almost) Every Republican Voted for,” The Atlantic, July 3, 2025.
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Reuters: Repbulican US Senator Murkowski on threat of Trump retaliation: 'We are all afraid,' April 18, 2025.
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NBC News: Rand Paul uninvited from White House picnic, July 12, 2025.
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The Hill: Trump attacks Tillis, June 29, 2025.
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Newsweek: Lara Trump as Trump’s pick to replace Tillis, July 1, 2025.
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Fox News: Trump threatens Massie, July 1, 2025.
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The Guardian: Musk backs down in feud with Trump, July 1, 2025.
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Inside Higher Ed: Trump Administration Rescinds $11 Billion in University Research Grants, May 2, 2025.
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Reuters: Deportations Proceed Despite Court Injunctions, June 24, 2025.
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Article III Project: “Brass knuckles” judicial pipeline, 2025.