Fudging the Coronavirus Numbers?

Deborah Birx, White House coronavirus response coordinator, shows charts 

on death estimates related to the coronavirus pandemic.

The Washington Post reports that experts do not know how the White House estimated that there would be 100,000 to 240,000 coronavirus deaths in the US. The WaPo writes:

“Leading disease forecasters, whose research the White House used to conclude 100,000 to 240,000 people will die nationwide from the coronavirus, were mystified when they saw the administration’s projection this week. The experts said they don’t challenge the numbers’ validity but that they don’t know how the White House arrived at them. White House officials have refused to explain how they generated the figure — a death toll bigger than the United States suffered in the Vietnam War or the 9/11 terrorist attacks. They have not provided the underlying data so others can assess its reliability or provided long-term strategies to lower that death count.”

In view of the refusal to provide the basis for the estimate, the most likely explanation is that the president grossly exaggerated the death estimate so that when the total comes out to be significantly less, he can claim he performed a miracle and then get re-elected.

The next most likely explanation is that the president took out his sharpie and drew a curve that looked good to him, like he did with hurricane Dorian last year.

The president analyzing and projecting the course of a hurricane

There may be other explanations, but they are not immediately clear.