How Minds Can Change

Flower of a carrion plant 

“. . . . the typical citizen drops down to a lower level of mental performance as soon as he enters the political field. He argues and analyzes in a way which he would readily recognize as infantile within the sphere of his real interests. . . . cherished ideas and judgments we bring to politics are stereotypes and simplifications with little room for adjustment as the facts change. . . . . the real environment is altogether too big, too complex, and too fleeting for direct acquaintance. We are not equipped to deal with so much subtlety, so much variety, so many permutations and combinations. Although we have to act in that environment, we have to reconstruct it on a simpler model before we can manage it.” -- Democracy For Realists: Why Elections Do not Produce Responsive Governments, Christopher H. Achen and Larry M. Bartels, 2016



The New York Times reports that increasing numbers of people approve of the president’s handling of the coronavirus epidemic despite his obvious failures and lies. Polling from last week indicated that approval by independents rose by 8% from early March, and Democratic approval was up 6%. What is extremely important for understanding the cognitive biology and social reality of politics is what effect this new perception of a false reality is having on the minds of some people whose minds have changed.

The NYT writes this about one person who changed his mind and the related social phenomenon:

“Justin Penn, a Pittsburgh voter who calls himself politically independent, favored Joseph R. Biden Jr. in a matchup with President Trump until recently. But the president’s performance during the coronavirus outbreak has Mr. Penn reconsidering. 

‘I think he’s handled it pretty well,’ he said of the president, whose daily White House appearances Mr. Penn catches on Facebook after returning from his job as a bank security guard. ‘I think he’s tried to keep people calm,’ he said. ‘I know some people don’t think he’s taking it seriously, but I think he’s doing the best with the information he had.’ 

Although Mr. Penn, 40, said he did not vote for Mr. Trump, his opinion of the president has improved recently and he very well might back him for a second term.  

‘There are people who haven’t even heard Trump that much, while the rest of us have been obsessed,’ said Matt Grossmann, director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University. ‘Those people are paying attention and seeing Trump a lot.’ 

Every modern president has seen their approval surge after significant national crises, although those bumps have diminished in size in recent administrations, as the country’s politics became more polarized. President Barack Obama gained just seven points after U.S. forces killed Osama bin Laden in 2011.”

Two points stand out. First, Mr. Penn sees presidential competence in the press conferences. He is oblivious to the underlying reality of the president’s incompetence, lies and self-centered arrogance that dominated at least until about two weeks ago. The president, his administration and supporters like Fox News say nothing whatever about the real reality of the situation. The degree of incompetence the president has displayed so far is buried.

Those buried facts are completely out of mind. Penn’s comment, ‘I think he’s doing the best with the information he had’ is clearly false, but that is completely unknown to him. Penn’s false perception of reality spills over to and changes his broader perception of the president. He now considers voting to re-elect the president. That is human cognitive biology on display. It is not rational, but it is both human and fairly common.

Second, the president is taking advantage of a crisis by not acting like the bumbling jackass he usually is. Someone on his staff finally got through to the president as somehow got the president to stop being his normal rancid self. He has toned his narcissism and stupidity down enough to be able to simply harvest the spontaneous goodwill that is inherent in national crises. Human cognitive biology and social forces lead many people to support a president they would not otherwise support.

All an incompetent, uncaring leader has to do to harvest that gift of human goodwill in time of crisis is appear to be something close to competent and caring. People’s minds will do the rest and unconsciously shift personal sentiment from neutrality or opposition to support.

Flower with bee flying by