Social trends: Political violence watch

The possibility of political violence by extremists on the right and the left is increasing. From what I can tell, probably most of the radical right rank and file sincerely believe that American democracy and liberties are on the verge of falling to some form of a corrupt, Godless, radical left tyranny. According to radical right propaganda, the socialist tyranny is hell-bent on doing immoral, illegal and oppressive things like (i) confiscating guns, (ii) oppressing and replacing White people with non-White and non-heterosexual people, (iii) forcing Christians into re-education camps and brainwashing them into atheists, and (iv) etc. Many of them are willing to consider violence to defend themselves from the fake threats they have been convinced are real. Anger over the indictment of Trump has inflamed emotions on the right.

Increasing numbers of Democrats are expressing openness to violence, apparently out of anger over things like loss of abortion rights and control of the USSC by Republicans. 

Poll data from August 2022 indicated that a large majority of people said they thought violence was unacceptable for normal politics. Ipsos summarized its poll data:

Eighty-three percent also disagree that violent acts are acceptable in order to achieve their idea of a better society. Additionally, 85% of Americans do not believe it is acceptable for someone in their political party to commit violence to achieve a political goal. The poll also shows believing that political violence is unacceptable is a bipartisan notion.

Two-thirds of Americans are concerned about acts of violence committed against people in their community because of their political (66%) or religious beliefs (64%). Both a majority of Democrats (73% and 71%) and Republicans (60% and 58%) are concerned about acts of violence for political and religious beliefs, but Democrats are more likely to say they are concerned than Republicans. Eighty-two percent of Americans say that domestic terrorism is a threat to American society, with Democrats (90%) more likely to say this than Republicans (76%).

But more recent poll data indicates an uptick in acceptance of violence to achieve political goals. The Chicago Project on Security and Threats commented about its recent poll data:

From April 6, 2023 to June 26, 2023, Americans agreeing that “the use of force is justified to restore Donald Trump to the presidency” increased from 4.5% to 7%, or the equivalent of an estimated shift from 12 million to 18 million American adults. 

Trump is viewed as a far greater threat to democracy than Biden, by a difference of 52% vs 33%. Although lower, the level for Biden is still notably high. .... Far more Republicans than Democrats now believe that the 2024 election is already rigged against their party, by a difference of 27% to 11%.

Public support for the use of force to coerce members of the US Congress grew from 9 percent in January 2023 to 17 percent as of June 26, 2023, effectively doubling. While increasing across the political spectrum, the rise was sharpest among Democrats where it grew by about 2.5 times. This growing anger parallels the Republican rise to power and proceedings in the House of Representatives.

Radical, expressly violent support to restore the federal right to abortion grew from 8 percent in January 2023 to 12 percent as of June 26, 2023, a modest but significant rise beyond the margin of survey error. The increase was sharpest among Democrats, doubling over the past 6 months from 8 to 16 percent. This likely indicates growing anger over the Republican controlled supreme court.   

As of June 26, 2023, 7 percent of the American public – which equates to an estimated 18 million adults – supports violence to restore Trump to the presidency, while another 15% or 30 million adults are ambivalent.

Deep distrust of democracy is associated with statistically significant 

increase with support for political violence by about a factor of two

Deep distrust includes belief in Satan

worshipping pedophiles running the US government

 

An article in The Hill exemplifies the normalization and acceptance of violence by radical right extremists:

Grand jurors who voted to indict former President Trump in Georgia earlier this week are facing threats and a profusion of racist comments online. The jurors’ names were listed publicly within the indictment, as required under Georgia law.

“Everyone on that jury should be hung,” one user wrote on a right-wing online forum. On a different far-right site, the purported addresses of all 23 grand jurors tapped to serve in Trump’s case were posted in full. “MAGAs posting the grand jurors addresses online,” a Truth Social user wrote. “I see a swift bullet to the head if, and when, somebody shows up at their homes.”

The threats were not only made on far-right platforms but also surfaced on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. “Awful nice car you have there…hate to see something happen to it,” one user wrote on X early Wednesday morning, referencing the grand jury foreperson by name.

Considering the odds of civil war

At this point one should ask if the left and radical right are about equal in their probability of actually engaging in widespread violence. There's just no way to know that with good certainty. In my opinion, the radical right is about 10 times more likely to engage than the left. Why? Because for years most radical right leaders and influencers have been knowingly using apocalyptic, terror and rage-inciting dark free speech to normalize and morally justify the idea of political violence. By contrast, most leaders and influencers on the left continue to reject violence and rely on far softer rhetoric and propaganda. In my firm opinion, that is a major, core difference between the two sides.

Odds of an actual shooting war? There's no way to know with reasonable certainty either. Presently my estimate is that there is maybe about a 5% chance the radical right will try to start a civil war if DJT loses the election in 2024. IMO, the left is at about a 0.5% chance if DJT is re-elected. One factor is how well DJT and the radical right propaganda Leviathan can foment willingness of the deceived and betrayed radical rank and file to go to a shooting war against fellow Americans. They support a corrupt, fornicating traitor-dictator. They simply cannot see or accept that hyper-inconvenient truth. Many of them sincerely believe DJT is God-sent to save America from Satan worshipping pedophiles. Insane crackpottery like that is what can foment a civil war.