The issue of allegations of sexual assault by women is currently relevant and highly divisive. Being aware of statistics about it helps put the issue in a more rational context. (NOTE: The statistics here have been challenged as misleading.)
False assault allegations: The BBC recently reported that academic studies over the past 20 years, have led to the conclusion that about 2-10% of sexual assault accusations are false The BBC commented: “Two to 10% is too many, but it is not a big proportion of the total. Fake rape accusations get a lot of attention.” . The lawyer for Prof Ford’s lawyer says she believes Brett Kavanaugh attempted to rape her client, Christine Ford.
A 2010 research paper from a symposium on false sexual assault allegations commented: “One of the most controversial disputes affecting the discourse related to violence against women is the dispute about the frequency of false allegations of sexual assault. In an effort to add clarity to the discourse, published research on false allegations is critiqued, and the results of a new study described. All cases (N = 136) of sexual assault reported to a major Northeastern university over a 10-year period are analyzed to determine the percentage of false allegations. Of the 136 cases of sexual assault reported over the 10-year period, 8 (5.9%) are coded as false allegations. These results, taken in the context of an examination of previous research, indicate that the prevalence of false allegations is between 2% and 10%.
[The data this 2010 paper reports appears to be in error. The false allegation prevalence is about 17% based on the number of incidents that actually found enough evidence for prosecution or academic discipline.]
Rape is unique. No other violent crime is so fraught with controversy, so enmeshed in dispute and in the politics of gender and sexuality. For example, despite decades of careful social science research, prevalence rates are still frequently challenged on political grounds, and bold assertions are made in the absence of any data (e.g., MacDonald, 2008; Roiphe, 1993). And within the domain of rape, the most highly charged area of debate concerns the issue of false allegations. For centuries, it has been asserted and assumed that women ‘cry rape’, that a large proportion of rape allegations are maliciously concocted for purposes of revenge or other motives. Most famously, Sir Matthew Hale, a chief justice of the court of the King’s bench of England, expressed this view in a form that became the basis for special jury instructions that would be used late into the 20th century (Schafran, 1993). Hale (1847) wrote,
It is true rape is a most detestable crime, and therefore ought severely and impartially to be punished with death; but it must be remembered, that it is an accusation easily to be made and hard to be proved, and harder to be defended by the party accused, tho never so innocent.
The determination that a report of sexual assault is false can be made only if the evidence establishes that no crime was committed or attempted. This determination can be made only after a thorough investigation. This should not be confused with an investigation that fails to prove a sexual assault occurred. In that case the investigation would be labeled unsubstantiated. The determination that a report is false must be supported by evidence that the assault did not happen. (IACP, 2005b, pp. 12-13; italics in original)”
Senate republicans and president Trump refuse to allow the FBI to do a thorough investigation, Dr Ford’s sexual assault claim is not seen as false under the law. It is simply uninvestigated, not merely unsubstantiated. People who claim the allegation is false are making bold assertions in the absence of data, or even in the face of some contrary data.
The 2010 paper goers on to observe: “All of the methodological issues outlined previously underscore the necessity to scrutinize law enforcement classifications of sexual assault cases. However, such scrutiny requires access to confidential information, and few studies have either attempted or succeeded in obtaining such information. As a result, many published studies on false rape allegations have relied on the classifications made by law enforcement agencies. As such, they are unable to determine whether those classifications adhere to IACP and UCR guidelines and whether they are free of the biases that have frequently been identified in police investigations of rape cases. . . . . Given these serious limitations in the literature on false rape reports, there are actually very few studies that provide meaningful data on the frequency of false reports. Among the 20 sources listed in a recent review article (Rumney, 2006), only a handful provided clear definitions and used systematic methods to evaluate their data.”
Based on that, it seems that much more research on this topic is necessary. Given the importance and social divisiveness of the topic, this should be a high priority academic research topic.
Why women do not report sexual assaults, or delay reporting: The national Institute of Justice wrote in 2010: “The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) reports that the majority of rapes and sexual assaults perpetrated against women and girls in the United States between 1992 and 2000 were not reported to the police. Only 36 percent of rapes, 34 percent of attempted rapes, and 26 percent of sexual assaults were reported. Reasons for not reporting assault vary among individuals, but one study identified the following as common:”
1. Self-blame or guilt.
2. Shame, embarrassment, or desire to keep the assault a private matter.
3. Humiliation or fear of the perpetrator or other individual's perceptions.
4. Fear of not being believed or of being accused of playing a role in the crime.
5. Lack of trust in the criminal justice system.
In the case of allegations against Kavanaugh, one can clearly see intense social pressure at play leading many Americans to conclude all allegations are at best confused and false or intentional lies and unwarranted character assassination at worst. Kavanaugh’s defenders point to his sterling character and the delay in reports against him as evidence he could not have ever sexually assaulted any woman. The limited available facts associated with the allegations contradict those assertions and/or are consistent with the allegations.
More recent data indicates the following: “Only 310 out of every 1,000 sexual assaults are reported to police. That means about 2 out of 3 go unreported.”
Individuals of college-age:
Female Students: 20% report
Female Non-Students: 32% report
The elderly:
28% report
Members of the military:
43% of female victims and 10% of male victims reported.
Reasons Victims Choose to Report—or Not:
Of the sexual violence crimes reported to police from 2005-2010, the survivor reporting gave the following reasons for doing so:
28% to protect the household or victim from further crimes by the offender
25% to stop the incident or prevent recurrence or escalation
21% to improve police surveillance or they believed they had a duty to do so
17% to catch/punish/prevent offender from reoffending
6% gave a different answer, or declined to cite one reason
3% did so to get help or recover loss
Of the sexual violence crimes not reported to police from 2005-2010, the victim gave the following reasons for not reporting:
20% feared retaliation
13% believed the police would not do anything to help
13% believed it was a personal matter
8% reported to a different official
8% believed it was not important enough to report
7% did not want to get the perpetrator in trouble
2% believed the police could not do anything to help
30% gave another reason, or did not cite one reason
Additional more recent statistics, e.g., perpetrators by race, are here: https://rainn.org/statistics/perpetrators-sexual-violence
B&B orig: 9/26/18
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