In the case of Judge Kavanaugh, at least one source argues his position on Roe v. Wade is that it is inconsistent with the proper test for what can be considered an unenumerated constitutional right.
But what about what the people want?: As a general proposition, it is reasonable to think that what the American people want is largely beside the point. Recent research indicated that public opinion has limited impact on policy choices, with most influence coming from wealthy individuals and organizations representing business interests: “Our analyses suggest that majorities of the American public actually have little influence over the policies our government adopts.”
That concern aside, survey data indicates a significant amount of public support for at least some abortion rights, although results vary among polls. Historical polling by Gallup indicates complexity in opinions. How questions about abortion are worded has a strong effect on poll results.
A January 2017 Pew Research Center article indicates that 59% of Americans approved of abortion in all or most situations. Pew comments: “When it comes to the Supreme Court’s landmark 1973 ruling, about seven-in-ten Americans (69%) say Roe v. Wade should not be completely overturned.” Public opinion, however, is nuanced. Poll data shows that most Americans support abortion early in pregnancy, but most oppose it later in a pregnancy. Support for abortion rights drops from about 60% in the 1st trimester to about 28% by the start of the 3rd trimester. Thus, if public opinion had influence, the Roe decision would left more or less intact.
Existing data indicates that most of the opposition to any abortion rights comes from religious Americans, which varies among religious groups.
Other recent poll data indicates a rather surprising degree of incoherence in public opinion: “But I’ve spent a lot of time talking to friends and family and the people I meet in my reporting about how they view the issue. Here’s what I’ve learned: they don’t live in this world of absolutes. Abortion views are indeed strongly held, but what most discourse misses is the nuance — the personal factors and situations that influence how each individual thinks about the issue. Our poll confirms my anecdotal findings: 39 percent of Americans don’t choose a label in the debate.”
One poll respondent expressed his views like this: “From my point of view, I believe all babies go to heaven. And if this baby were to live a life where it would be abused . . . it’s just really hard to explain. It gets into the rights of the woman, and her body, at the same time. It just sometimes gets really hazy on each side.” The poll data reflects the moral confusion and complexity of the issue.
But if one rewords the abortion question to focus on women, the results vary.
Additional nuance in opinions is revealed in questions about what Americans want a woman’s abortion experience to be like.
The Vox poll also found that talking to people about abortion can make a difference: “If you find the one-in-three-women [who have had an abortion] statistic surprising, you’re not alone: when we told participants in our poll this figure, 73 percent of them said it was higher than they expected. One possible explanation for why this shocks people: we don’t talk much about abortion. The one-in-three figure suggests there’s a decent chance that most of us know a woman who has terminated a pregnancy. But only four in 10 of our poll respondents tell us they’ve talked to someone about their abortion experience or decision.”
If that poll data is correct, it appears that simply discussing an abortion experience or decision increases support for a woman’s access to abortion services. How much that increase would be if all Americans were to engage in an abortion conversation cannot be determined from this data. Nonetheless, the moral complexity of the issue and the effects of society in shaping public opinion cannot be ignored. In essence, the Vox poll reveals that life experiences, and personal moral and social factors, all contribute to how people form their opinions. Cognitive and social science indicates those human traits dominate politics and political thinking. This data also suggests that there is significantly more common ground on abortion than most Americans might believe. If that is true, one can argue that this issue should be far less divisive than is now commonly described and perceived.
B&B orig: 10/22/18
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