CPAC and modern authoritarian anti-democracy tactics

This 19 minute video discusses how authoritarians rise to power in democracies and then they subvert and kill democracy. The process is well underway in America right now. Most of the interview is with Kim Lane Scheppele, a professor at Princeton. She is an expert on how Hungarian democracy was destroyed after Viktor Orban was elected in 2010. Orban has since been re-elected three times in rigged elections, making him the Hungarian dictator for life. Central points are:

• Modern authoritarians in democracies have learned how to gain power and then use it to establish tyranny. After being elected, they destroy free and fair elections and by subverting government. Government subversion involves firing career professional employees and replacing them with people chosen for their loyalty to the tyrant. That includes government employees who oversee elections. Loyalty to the Constitution and the rule of law, concern for the public interest, professional competence and other concerns are not the most important qualifier. Loyalty is all-important.

• CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference), which consists mostly of Republican Party elites, elected politicians and radical right propagandists (Faux News, etc.), is openly adopting these same tactics. Once back in power, Republicans plan to give themselves the power to fire tens of thousands of federal employees. Fired employees will be replaced by people loyal to the Republican Party leader and its elites. 

• Most average people in democracies are very slow to understand what is happening to their form of government. It takes years before most people come to realize that they have lost their democracy. Holding rigged elections distract from the fact that elections have been turned into a farce. Despite being a farce, holding rigged elections provides extremely effective propaganda and cover for tyrants. Tyrants boldly but falsely claim they are democratic and adhering to the rule of law by holding elections they falsely say are free and fair. The tyrant's supporters do not complain because they believe they are rightfully winning, and defending their racial purity, their nation and literally Western civilization.

• Institutions and norms that impose checks and balances on concentration of power, like those in place in the US, fall apart when the people in power are loyal to a party or a tyrant In a functioning American democracy, loyal of powerful people in government would be to federalism, the institutions they are in, and the Constitutional. That is the legal basis for separation of power sufficient to prevent the rise of a tyrant. If Republicans once again get control of institutions, including federal agencies, federal courts, congress and the presidency, their loyalty to their party will be the pathway for a tyrant to rise to power for life. So far, the Republican Party has disabled all of the checks and balances that it could. That makes the rise of a tyrant for life in the US much more likely. The GOP already controls the US Supreme Court, making it a major ally in the Republican Party's run at tyranny.

Acknowledgement: Thanks to PD for bringing this interview to my attention.

The next tactic in political war against democracy: Attack and investigate the investigators

Some of us thought the day might come when Republican Party elites would call for open warfare against the US Government and the rule of law. Well, that day is here. The Washington Post writes in a series of short articles:

Trump claims political persecution after FBI search of Mar-a-Lago residence

News of the court-authorized search prompted recriminations from Trump’s fellow Republicans, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who threatened to investigate the Justice Department if the GOP takes control of the chamber next year. Democrats, who twice impeached Trump but failed both times to convict him, welcomed the news of the raid. 

Trump raising money for his PAC off the FBI search

Former president Donald Trump is seeking to raise money for his political action committee off the FBI search of his residence.

A text message sent to supporters Tuesday morning announces that “MAR-A-LAGO was raided” and provides a link to donate to Save America, Trump’s PAC.

A landing page seeks to stoke more outrage, offering this message: “It’s time for EVERY PATRIOT to step up and stand against the Left’s reckless WITCH HUNTS and political persecution of President Trump!”

Republicans call for Garland, Wray to hold news conferences, testify to Congress

Leading Republican lawmakers are calling on Attorney General Merrick Garland and FBI Director Christopher A. Wray to hold news conferences and appear before Congress to explain why the search of former president Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence was necessary.

During a television appearance Tuesday morning, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said Garland and Wray — as well as President Biden — should appear before cameras and “take all questions, explain why they’re doing what they’re doing, what each of them knew when.”

“This should scare every American,” Scott, who leads the campaign committee of Senate Republicans, said on Fox Business. “Until we get answers, you should have unbelievable concern.”

Conservative Republicans planning to dine with Trump tonight

Members of the Republican Study Committee, a conservative caucus of House Republicans, are planning to have dinner with former president Donald Trump at his golf club in Bedminster, N.J., in what is expected to be a show of solidarity following the FBI search of his residence in Florida.

The visit was previously planned but takes on added significance given Monday’s news and a vow by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to investigate the Justice Department if Republicans take control of the House next year.

The corrupt and authoritarian intent of the GOP leadership could not be clearer. This is the face of modern American fascism. What scares this American is not the raid on the traitor's residence. It is the response of Republican elites in defense of what is indefensible and openly treasonous. As far as the Republican Party goes, the rule of law has fallen. They are done with it. They are coming with a vengeance for our democracy and liberties.

Qs: 

1. Is it over the top to accuse Republican Party elites as modern American fascists who now openly ignore and attack the rule of law, or do facts and circumstances make those accusations reasonably defensible?

2. Are the rank and file who still support the Republican leadership also fascist, or merely understandably deceived and betrayed? We all know about the elites, but what about the rank and file?

Rick Scott -- openly attacking 

the rule of law and democracy

Republican politicians now openly ignoring court rulings they dislike

Once again, the issue is Republican Party election subversion tactics. And once again, the intent of Republican elites and politicians is crystal clear: Subvert elections so that only Republican candidates can win elections. Anyone who cannot see this by now, just cannot see, is not looking or knows it and either supports or opposes election subversion by the openly fascist Republican Party.

The New York Times writes:

Maps in Four States Were Ruled Illegal Gerrymanders. They’re Being Used Anyway.

Since January, judges in Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana and Ohio have found that Republican legislators illegally drew those states’ congressional maps along racial or partisan lines, or that a trial very likely would conclude that they did. In years past, judges who have reached similar findings have ordered new maps, or had an expert draw them, to ensure that coming elections were fair.

But a shift in election law philosophy at the Supreme Court, combined with a new aggressiveness among Republicans who drew the maps, has upended that model for the elections in November. This time, all four states are using the rejected maps, and questions about their legality for future elections will be hashed out in court later.

The immediate upshot, election experts say, is that Republicans almost certainly will gain more seats in midterm elections at a time when Democrats already are struggling to maintain their bare majority.  

Some election law scholars say they are troubled by the consequences in the long run.

“We’re seeing a revolution in courts’ willingness to allow elections to go forward under illegal or unconstitutional rules,” Richard L. Hasen, a professor at the U.C.L.A. School of Law and the director of its Safeguarding Democracy Project, said in an interview. “And that’s creating a situation in which states are getting one free illegal election before they have to change their rules.”

If Republicans get their way, all it may take to kill off free and fair elections in the US is just one election under illegal or unconstitutional rules. That might be all it will take.

Once the Republican Party has normalized the practice of ignoring court rulings it dislikes, that will put a big wood stake through both the heart of what little is left of (1) the rule of law[1], and (2) free and fair elections. After that, other civil liberties will fall along with the fall of the rule of law.

Anyone who thinks that the 2022 general elections will be free and fair, really ought to take a look at the summary shown below and then reconsider their position in light of relevant data and in light of what the NYT reported and this post and other recent posts here contain. I've been warning people over and over and over. 

December 2021 data

Footnote:

1.  Despite yesterday's execution of an FBI search warrant at Mar-a-lago, the rule of law as applied to rich and/or powerful people is barely hanging on by a thread. That applies especially to openly fascist Republicans, even some who are not rich or powerful. 

Good news from science

This is a really big deal. The NIH is now funding research into ways to enhance scientific rigor. This should be a game changer. I hope it's not too little or too late. Steve Novella at Neorologica writes:

This is a great idea, and in fact is long overdue. The NIH is awarding various grants to establish educational materials and centers to teach principles of scientific rigor to researchers. This may seem redundant, but it absolutely isn’t.

At present principles of research are taught in basic form during scientific courses, but advanced principles are largely left to individual mentorship. This creates a great deal of variability in how well researchers really understand the principles of scientific rigor. As a result, a lot of research falls short of scientific ideals. This creates a great deal of waste in the system. NIH, as a funding institution, has a great deal of incentive to reduce this waste.

The primary mechanism will be to create teaching modules that then can be made freely available to educational and research institutions. These modules would cover: 

“biases in research; logical fallacies around causality; how to develop hypotheses; designing literature searches; identifying experimental variables; and reducing confounding variables in research.”

Sounds like a good start. The “biases in research” is a broad category, so I’m not sure how thorough coverage will be. I would explicitly include as an area of education – how to avoid p-hacking. Perhaps this could be part of a broader category on how to properly use statistic in research, the limits of the p-value, and the importance of using other statistical methods like effect sizes and Bayesian analysis.  

Prior research has shown that when asked about their research behavior, about a third of researchers admit (anonymously) to bad behavior that amounts to p-hacking. This is likely mostly innocent and naive. I lecture about this topic all the time myself, and I find that many researchers are unfamiliar with the more nuanced aspects of scientific rigor.  

And of course, once the NIH requires certification, this will almost certainly make it uniform within academia, at least on the biomedical side. Then we need other research granting institutions to replicate this, also requiring certification. It basically should become impossible to have a career as a researcher in any field without some basic certification in the principles of research rigor.

OMG, someone outside Dissident Politics is actually taking logic fallacies seriously? I must have died and got reluctantly shoved up to heaven. Next after science, politics needs to tackle this same plague on democracy, humanity and civilization.

No, it is not the case that science and politics can be dealt with the same way. They are different. But it is the case that the data and reasoning behind politics can be subject to the same kind of rigor, if politics is to be based more on fact and sound reasoning than it is now. Opinions will still differ, but the extent of difference due to irrationally disputed facts, e.g., stolen election vs. not stolen, differences in opinions ought to be significantly reduced. Everyone doing politics firmly believes their politics is based on real facts and sound reasoning. A lot of research indicates that just is not true for most people, most of the time.

Politics is mostly sloppy, not rigorous.

Good thing most of us won't be alive in 2100, and here is why.........

 

America Will Invade Canada Before the Year 2100

But it could happen far, far sooner

Let’s face it, friends:

America is over.

• We poisoned all our rivers and we’re running out of freshwater, with 96 out of 204 basins in trouble and the western seaboard on fire.
• We’re like a thirsty ex-boyfriend in our desperate search for ever-harder-to-extract oil and gas, fracking our foundations to smithereens.
• Our infrastructure is crumbling and our cities are overcrowded like a Tokyo metro station.
• Our virgin forests have been destroyed and aren’t coming back.
• We’re trying to coax GMO crops from dead dirt instead of living soil, leaving us with sickly and anemic food.

Eventually, despotic American politicians will wake up and realize there’s a simple solution to all their self-imposed problems:

Invade Canada.

Snowy's reaction: Oh geeze, what a depressing article, and this after just getting away from the good Ole U.S. of A.

Here is the rest of the depressing article:

https://survivingtomorrow.org/america-will-invade-canada-before-the-year-2100-29d8f3dd3b24

Conclusion: At least Americans will get to discover poutine.

About social security and how much the Republican Party hates it

Republican elites hate, hate hate social security and the rest of the social safety net. The GOP is a pull yourself up by your bootstraps Darwinian survival or die political party. In GOP dogma, those who die deserve to die. Every penny that goes to regular people is one less penny that go to super wealthy elites. Each of those lost pennies is a moral outrage to GOP elites. Lost pennies includes those lost to evil, socialist, pedophilic social security spending and etc.

Waddabout the Republican Party rank and file? Most are deceived, clueless and betrayed by the GOP and its propaganda Leviathan like Faux 'News'. Most of them actually believe the lies and adopt the irrational Republican Party hate propaganda.

A Washington Post opinion piece comments:

Opinion | Republicans are coming after Social Security. Democrats, take note.

.... the Republicans are once again taking aim at it and are, in the process, handing Democrats an issue almost as politically potent as abortion rights as they fight to hold on to their slim majorities in the November elections.

The most recent to join the fray is Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.). He announced earlier this week that he believes Social Security should be up for a congressional reauthorization vote every single year. “If you qualify for an entitlement, you get it no matter what the cost,” he huffed on a podcast.

The nerve of those entitled seniors. They paid faithfully into a program and expect a check. Imagine that!

This ups the ante from Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who opened the Social Security floodgates earlier this year when he proposed putting all government programs — including Social Security and Medicare — up for renewal every five years. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) immediately declared it dead on arrival, but that hasn’t stopped some Republicans such as Johnson from expressing their approval.

It’s almost as though these Republicans can’t stop themselves from acting on the hope that when it comes to Social Security, the majority of voters won’t take them seriously, even as the GOP base laps their message up. But, in an age when increasing numbers of Americans are going to need a Social Security check to get by in retirement, that seems like a risky bet.

The fascist Republican Party is all in on getting rid of all social safety net spending, including Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps and all the rest. In their twisted political religion, no mercy for anyone for any reason is what the Founders intended. That includes no mercy for veterans who fought in wars to protect their  corrupt, worthless hides and bank accounts.

Our morally rotted ex-president once commented about America's war dead. In 2020, the Atlantic wrote:

Trump said, “Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers.” In a separate conversation on the same trip, Trump referred to the more than 1,800 marines who lost their lives at Belleau Wood as “suckers” for getting killed. 

The rest of the corrupt, hard assed Republican Party leadership feels or acts the same way, no matter how hard they deny it. Liars deserve no credibility. That includes Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, the two radical right Republican Senators the MSM falsely refers to as "moderates."

Where there is some dispute in the GOP is about how fast and openly to shaft us regular people. 

Morally rotted McConnell wants time for an appearance of subtlety to quietly abandon average Americans and leave them rotting in a garbage heap. Less patient, equally morally rotted Republicans like Ron Johnson are ready for immediate action. The US Supreme Court also wants to bulldozer safety net protections for average people right now. But maybe most of those Republican Christofacscist radicals on the court are more politically savvy. They might bide their time for a bit, no matter how that odious it is to them. They are also part of the relentless radical right quest to kill democracy, inconvenient truth, the rule of law, civil liberties and our social safety net.

Or, is all that just over the top?