Israel: Overview of the Current Political Crisis

The following article appeared in today's online edition of World Politics Review, and was written by Avner  Inbar (academic director of Molad, a liberal think-tank in Jerusalem) Inbar's interpretation of events, like any other, partly reflects his own positions; but it strikes me as a fair description and analysis that provides more context than almost all coverage in MSM, especially in the US. 

It places the conflict over the fate of the Judiciary in a context of competing and irreconcilable ideologies and visions of Israel. Broadly, there are 2 factions on the Right he describes; "Bibism" and "Religious Zionism." The former often accommodates the latter but is not the same as it, and ultimately incompatible with it. The liberals in Israel, who Avner claims have been largely silent in recent years under "Bibi,"constitute a large segment of the population of Israel, and their relative complacency, says Inbar, has given way to outright alarm as they see democratic institutions under threat and ever more power going to a Right  that accommodates radical Zionists once considered fringe, and in some cases illegitimate or illegal as explained below. I share it because it strikes me as a reasoable and thoughtful piece that backs up from the merely momentary news, and reflects on this as a crossroads for Israel as it reckons with its history while struggling to define its future.

Briefing Middle East & North Africa

Israel’s Protests Are a Battle Over the Meaning of a Jewish State

Avner Inbar

The so-called judicial reform launched by the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has roiled Israeli society, setting off massive protests that possibly constitute the largest social unrest the country has ever seen. Whole swaths of Israeli society that were previously proudly apolitical have taken to the streets, including the business sector—most notably, the booming high-tech industry—and military reservists. Start-up companies are withdrawing their funds from Israeli banks, and air force pilots are withdrawing from active service.

The energetic and resolute reaction by a liberal public that had been considered politically moribund for years likely took Netanyahu by surprise. Netanyahu expected smooth sailing, having secured a robust majority in the  Knesset  with a new coalition that finally delivered on his promise of a government that is “fully right-wing.”

The election that brought Netanyahu back as prime minister in November—Israel’s seventh in 10 years—was called when the previous government fell apart under relentless pressure from the right. The coalition of then-Prime Minister Naftali Bennett comprised parties from the right, center and left that were united only in their determination to keep Netanyahu from power.

In addition to having little in common on a policy level, the coalition was assailed by Netanyahu and other elements of the Israeli right as treasonous for having included Ra’am, the first Arab party to ever enter a government in Israel. The gist of the attacks against Bennet’s coalition was that a legitimate government of the Jewish state cannot rest on the support of an Arab party, and possibly not even include one. Ultimately, the coalition collapsed after several members of Bennet’s own right-wing party defected, leaving him short of a majority in the Knesset.

But the question of what, exactly, being a Jewish state means looms even larger these days, as Israelis are realizing what the “fully right-wing” version entails. With the electoral collapse in November of the anti-Netanyahu elements represented by Bennet, the Israeli right is now divided into two camps.

The first and most dominant camp in terms of political representation is the personality cult around Netanyahu—called “Bibism,” after Netanyahu’s nickname. It can be roughly described as a populist movement completely devoid of any political content, held together by a shared resentment toward the left and purported cultural elites as well as animosity toward Palestinians. It remains to be seen what will become of Bibism after Netanyahu’s eventual departure from political life. What is clear, however, is that it does not represent a substantive ideology.

The right’s second faction is a highly ideological movement espousing a clear vision of Israel—in short, everything that Bibism is not. Over the past three decades, this faction—the national-religious movement, or religious Zionism—has become the most dynamic and, in ideologically terms, the dominant political force in Israel.

Two processes enabled its rise to power: the left’s cultural and ideological implosion following then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin’s 1995 assassination and the failure of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process; and the secular right’s embrace of the vacuity of Bibism. While Bibi’s supporters vastly outnumber adherents of religious Zionism, the latter deftly positioned themselves as a political vanguard that shapes and steers the right as a whole, including Netanyahu himself. While the current judicial reform has been portrayed in part as a way for Netanyahu to neuter the judiciary at a time when he faces multiple criminal proceedings for corruption, it is spearheaded by the religious Zionists, who see an independent judiciary—especially a Supreme Court that can overturn laws passed by the Knesset—as an obstacle to their goals.

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Religious Zionism as currently constituted emerged in 1967, when Israel’s occupation of the West Bank after the Six-Day War ignited the messianic aspirations of a previously moderate and marginal national-religious community. Their political theology allegedly vindicated by the unexpected triumph in the war, religious Zionists began to view themselves as the true heirs to the secular pioneers who established Israel, summoned, as it were, to assume leadership of the Jewish state.

Over the course of its political and cultural accension over the past generation, the national-religious movement radicalized even further, with the most stringently religious element—known as  Hardal, or national-haredi—becoming internally hegemonic. The current political alliance between the national-religious party, currently called simply Religious Zionism, and the Jewish Power Party [ Otzma Yehudit - ed]—a nationalist party descended from the Kahanist movement movement, which was outlawed in Israel as a terrorist organization—would have been unimaginable in the past and is a testimony to religious Zionism’s descent into overt racism and fanaticism.    

Until now, the national-religious movement’s chief undertaking since 1967 had been promoting settlements in the occupied West Bank. The settlements are a tremendous tactical achievement, matched only by the magnitude of their strategic failure. More than half a century after the first Jewish settlers moved into Hebron, their ultimate goal—annexation of the West Bank—is not close to being realized, despite widespread concerns that it is unavoidable.

This is because the earthly realization of religious Zionism’s messianic ambitions requires the absorption and, eventually, naturalization of millions of Palestinians into the Israeli body politic, an endeavor that is entirely inconsistent with the modern Zionist idea of the Jewish state. Though the settlers sometimes elide this issue by suggesting that Palestinians could be forcibly removed from the West Bank or denied full citizenship rights under annexation, the former is unrealistic and the latter unsustainable. The settlement project is much likelier to bring the modern Jewish state to ruin than to extend its sovereignty to the entirety of what the religious Zionists consider to be the Holy Land, or Greater Israel.

As a result, religious Zionism is at odds with mainstream Zionism, which has always viewed the Jewish state as a vehicle for the realization of the Jewish people’s right to national self-determination. This commitment rested on the assumption that Jews will one day be a sufficient majority in their state to enact their self-determination through democratic institutions. It furthermore relied on the essential Zionist belief that Judaism is not only or even mainly a religion, but is first and foremost a nationality. To be a Jewish state, therefore, Israel need not have any necessary relationship to the Jewish faith.

Such a Jewish state is democratic in two crucial ways. First, it is committed to the self-determination of Jews through democratic institutions. Second, it promotes their freedom to define their collective “Jewishness” as they please. Zionism, in short, was always committed to the resolution of the “Jewish problem” by the establishment of a modern, democratic, free state.

Religious Zionism rejects this essential Zionist belief that Judaism primarily denotes a national rather than a religious kinship. Consequently, it rejects the modern conception of the Jewish state as essentially democratic and free. It doesn’t view the Jewish state as a vehicle for the realization of Jews’ right to self-determination, but as a vehicle for the Jewish people’s divine calling. For the national-religious movement, Israel is not a normal state but, in the words of Rabbi Avraham Isaac Kook, “the foundation of God’s throne on earth.” This is a profoundly undemocratic conception, since it means that the Jewish citizens of Israel—let alone its non-Jewish citizens—are not free to conduct their affairs as they please. They must, rather, play their predetermined role in what religious Zionists perceive as a divine drama set in motion by the Jewish people’s reintroduction to political power.

The irreconcilable difference between these two conceptions of the Jewish state is the source of the social strife that is currently unfolding in Israel. It is also the reason that a compromise between the two sides is unlikely. After nearly three decades of political dormancy, the liberal public in Israel is waking up to the inherent consequences of the rise of the religious right.

The protests are currently focused on the right’s attack on the independence of the judiciary. But if they lead to a real reckoning with the underlying theological-political doctrine of religious Zionism and its connection to Israel’s occupation of Palestine, they may bring an end to the rise of the religious right. Beyond the crucial battle on democratic values and checks and balances lies a fundamental disagreement about the very meaning of a Jewish state.

News bits: Climate change update; Israel's toxic version of America's toxic Federalist Society

The WaPo reports on another update from climate experts:

Human activities have transformed the planet at a pace and scale unmatched in recorded history, causing irreversible damage to communities and ecosystems, according to one of the most definitive reports ever published about climate change. Leading scientists warned that the world’s plans to combat these changes are inadequate and that more aggressive actions must be taken to avert catastrophic warming.

The report released Monday from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found the world is likely to miss its most ambitious climate target — limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial temperatures — within a decade. Beyond that threshold, scientists have found, climate disasters will become so extreme people cannot adapt. Basic components of the Earth system will be fundamentally, irrevocably altered. Heat waves, famines and infectious diseases could claim millions of additional lives by century’s end.  

Decades of delay have denied the world any hope of an easy and gradual transition to a more sustainable economy, the panel says. Now, only “deep, rapid and … immediate” efforts across all aspects of society — combined with still-unproven technologies to pull carbon from the atmosphere — will be able to stave off catastrophe.

At this point, it's reasonable to think that the human species probably cannot proact effectively. In the US, the radical right Republican Party remains firmly opposed to doing anything and firmly committed to fighting coordinated federal and commercial efforts to even try. In that case, we will react only after disasters hit, or we won't react much and just let species go extinct and people die or live disrupted lives.

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Israel's democracy is on the verge of falling to some form of a a corrupt authoritarian theocratic fascism. Democracy there could fall within months. The NYT writes about Kohelet, a powerful secretive society that, like America's Federalist Society, quietly operates to replace democracy with corrupt, bigoted, racist fascist theocracy/autocracy/plutocracy:

Who’s Behind the Judicial Overhaul Now Dividing Israel? Two New Yorkers

Kohelet, the once-obscure think tank that conceived and now champions a revamped court system, is an American import

As part of a recent “national day of resistance,” a group of army reservists wearing masks converged at the Jerusalem office of a think tank and blocked its front door with sandbags and coils of barbed wire. Outside, protesters led a noisy rally on the street, waving dozens of placards and sharing a microphone for a series of furious speeches.

“The Kohelet Policy Forum has been hiding in the shadows,” shouted one speaker, standing atop a car. “But we are onto them and we will not let them win!”

For years, Kohelet quietly churned out position papers, trying to nudge government policy in a more libertarian direction. Then, starting in January, it became more widely known as one of the principal architects of the judicial overhaul proposal that has plunged Israel into a crisis over the future of its democracy. 

If the plan succeeds, it would be a stunning victory not only for the think tank, but also for the people behind it: two guys from Queens.

Like America's radical anti-democracy, authoritarian Federalist Society, Kohelet works to hide as much about itself as possible, at least regarding money. The NYT points out that Kohelet is not required to disclose the names of individual donors. For years the group "has artfully deflected questions about funding." One source of money is New Yorker Arthur Dantchik, a 65-year-old multibillionaire. 

Not surprisingly, Dantchik refused to comment for the NYT article. All modern authoritarians working to overthrow democracy and install dictatorship and/or radical authoritarian theocracy, like the Federalist Society and Kohelet are expert at the KYMS tactic in the face of inconvenient questions. The anti-democracy forces of the world are watching each other. Under the right circumstances, they adopt tactics that might work to overcome local pro-democracy, pro-secular and anti-bigotry/racist opposition, while avoiding the ones that probably would not work under local circumstances.

KYMS = keep your mouth shut

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Lunacy on cable TV: Yesterday on her weekly MSNBC program, Rachael Maddow discussed the impending Georgia law that gives power to state legislators to simply remove prosecutors from investigations that they don't like. Short of establishing a full-blown American dictatorship-theocracy, that is about as anti-democracy and anti-rule of law as the political situation in America can get.

The Georgia law has passed the legislature and the governor has said he supports it. So, this authoritarian (fascist IMO) law will be in effect soon. The point of radical right Republicans in passing this law is to protect Trump from prosecution for his illegal attempts to commit mass election fraud in Georgia after the 2020 election. The lead prosecutor there is Fulton County district attorney Fanni Willis, a black woman.

Oddly and inexplicably, one of Maddow's guest commentators, a Georgia prosecutor characterized the pending law not as authoritarian or fascist, but as racist because Willis is a black woman. Maybe I'm way off base here, but that allegation of racism instead of fascism struck me as shockingly stupid and about as counterproductive as possible. I understand that racism very likely is involved in what the radical right in Georgia is trying to do to the rule of law in Georgia. But by citing racism as his basis for opposing the law, Rachael's idiot guest hands the radical right an excuse to accuse him of racism. That fool gave the radical right a perfect foil to deflect from the fact that the fascist Republican Party in Georgia is going to gut the rule of law in that state.  

Given how idiotic and damaging the guest's racism comments were, is reasonable to believe that Maddow's guest intended to sabotage the story while appearing to be on the side of democracy.

Raw Story commented on the Maddow broadcast:

Currently, Georgia lawmakers are working to fast-track legislation that would remove any prosecutors that they don't like. It's a target on Fulton County Fani Willis, who is close to indicting Donald Trump for his attempt to overthrow the Georgia election. Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) has pledged to sign it. At the same time that Trump is facing charges, the Georgia lieutenant governor is facing potential charges in the same investigation, Maddow said.

"So Republicans will have the power to remove prosecutors in the middle of their investigations and in the middle of prosecuting any particular case Republicans might not like for any reason," explained Maddow. "And to be clear, this has now passed the Georgia legislature as of tonight. A version of the bill passed the state Senate, and the House just passed it tonight. And the Republican governor there says he will sign it. He's a strong supporter of this. So, they're doing it. ...."

Maddow said about Trump being indicted or withdrawing, "Maybe he will, maybe he won't. None of us know. But in the one place where he is under criminal investigation, and his party is in full control of the state government, they've just decided for the first time in the state's history, that it is within their own power to remove prosecutors in the middle of their duties on their own say so. And, yes, this is a story about Georgia, and yes, this is a story about Trump and the potential charges he's facing. But this is a whole new step for us as a country."

If that isn't some form of fascism,** maybe neo-fascism or maybe American fascism or Christofascism, what is it? Girl Scouts singing kumbaya around the camp fire?

** For several months, I've refrained from calling what the radical right is doing fascism because it is soooo naughty and pejorative that the label is counterproductive. Maybe so, but what the dictator-plutocrat-Christian theocrat radical right is doing in Georgia is clearly some form of fascism. In my firm opinion, democracy has fallen in Georgia. It is now a single party state ruled by radical elites, not the rule of law. I am just calling what is obviously and undeniably a spade, a spade.

Dirty tricks & lies: What is the scope of presidential legitimacy?

The NYT reports on a cute little trick that Republican Texas governor John Connally played on Jimmy Carter to sabotage Carter's re-election campaign against Reagan. Connally was hoping to sabotage Carter to gain a prominent spot in the Reagan administration: 

It was 1980 and Jimmy Carter was in the White House, bedeviled by a hostage crisis in Iran that had paralyzed his presidency and hampered his effort to win a second term. Mr. Carter’s best chance for victory was to free the 52 Americans held captive before Election Day. That was something that Mr. Barnes said his mentor was determined to prevent.

His mentor was John B. Connally Jr., a titan of American politics and former Texas governor who had served three presidents and just lost his own bid for the White House. A former Democrat, Mr. Connally had sought the Republican nomination in 1980 only to be swamped by former Gov. Ronald Reagan of California. Now Mr. Connally resolved to help Mr. Reagan beat Mr. Carter and in the process, Mr. Barnes said, make his own case for becoming secretary of state or defense in a new administration.

What happened next Mr. Barnes has largely kept secret for nearly 43 years. Mr. Connally, he said, took him to one Middle Eastern capital after another that summer, meeting with a host of regional leaders to deliver a blunt message to be passed to Iran: Don’t release the hostages before the election. Mr. Reagan will win and give you a better deal.

Mr. Carter’s camp has long suspected that Mr. Casey or someone else in Mr. Reagan’s orbit sought to secretly torpedo efforts to liberate the hostages before the election, and books have been written on what came to be called the October surprise. But congressional investigations debunked previous theories of what happened.

“History needs to know that this happened,” Mr. Barnes, who turns 85 next month, said in one of several interviews, his first with a news organization about the episode. “I think it’s so significant and I guess knowing that the end is near for President Carter put it on my mind more and more and more. I just feel like we’ve got to get it down some way.”  

Confirming Mr. Barnes’s account is problematic after so much time. Mr. Connally, Mr. Casey and other central figures have long since died and Mr. Barnes has no diaries or memos to corroborate his account. But he has no obvious reason to make up the story and indeed expressed trepidation at going public because of the reaction of fellow Democrats [Barnes is a Texas Democrat].

Illegitimate US presidents

This story triggered an unusually unpleasant thought. Based on my own core political moral values, fidelity to facts, true truths and sound reasoning, it arguably is the case that the US has probably had a lot of illegitimate presidents. How could that be?

For me, this mental journey started with Trump and what some US intelligence experts believed was a necessary role of Russian interference before the 2016 elections. Other factors were necessary, e.g., Comey's calling out an investigation of Hillary just before the election, with some arguably more important than Putin. Nonetheless, I came to believe that Putin's interference was one of the necessary factors in Trump's win. That led me to conclude that Trump was an illegitimate president, in large part because Putin had poisoned too many American votes by spreading lies and slanders about Hillary. Those voters were deceived and manipulated.

Before that, I had read a book by moral philosopher Sissela Bok, Lying: Moral Choice in Public and Private Life.[1] There she described how Lyndon Johnson lied to the American people about his intentions for the Vietnam war. Publicly he claimed to be the peace candidate who would end the war. Privately he intended to escalate the war. That led me to understand how immoral or even evil (if people get harmed or killed) deceit of voters can be. Johnson's deceit took away from voters the power to decide on the basis of truth whether they supported war in Vietnam or not. 

Somewhere along the way, I became aware of Nixon committing treason by torpedoing peace talks with North Vietnam to help his own presidential campaign in 1968. Again, the American voters were deceived. Here, the false belief was propaganda that the Vietnam peace talks were not progressing. That left Nixon free to argue he would do a much better job making peace. It was a promise based on pure deceit.

Now this NYT story about John Connally pops up. Connally at least tried to sabotage hostage negotiations with Iran in a self-serving effort to harm Carter's re-election chances. Assuming that sabotage effort was successful, Americans were deceived once again. They were deprived of the power to decide how to vote on the basis of truth.

Based on that evidence, I've come to this unpleasant belief: Johnson, Nixon, Reagan and Trump were all illegitimate presidents, if one defines illegitimacy as power obtained by too much intentional, unwarranted deceit, including irrational emotional manipulation. On reflection, maybe there have been a lot of  illegitimate US presidents. But as I see it and judge in light of my morals and reasoning, at least those four were not legitimate.

Of course, how much deceit is too much? The bickering in that point will never end. There's probably at least some deceit about federal and high level state candidates in all or nearly all campaigns. That is what probably most people who are uncomfortable with a conclusion of illegitimate elected politicians will say does not render any significantly deceit-based candidate illegitimate. 

If that is true, then Bok's assertion that deceit is immoral is false. I do not believe that is true.

On the basis of too much deceit one can argue that there have been no illegitimate presidents because voters should accept a lot of lies, slanders, dirty tricks and crackpottery in the rough and tumble of politics. Is that really true? That's true for deceit-based politics. That's also true for anti-democracy politics. With authoritarians and demagogues espousing brass knuckles capitalism, theocratic Christian nationalism and some variant of old-fashioned, hard core fascism, socialism or communism, truth is not a moral concern. For the authoritarians, truth is what the tyrants, plutocrats, kleptocrats or theocrats say it is. That assertion is not rationally contestable, except of course by the deceivers.

Qs: Were some or all of Johnson, Nixon, Reagan and Trump illegitimate? Is Barnes lying about Connelly trying to sabotage Carter? How can voters know things that are kept from them and still make an informed choice of who to vote for? Is, or should there be there no such thing an an illegitimate elected politician based on too much deceit, e.g. because most lying, deceit and unprosecuted slandering are free speech, either protected by law or by failure to prosecute? Do you personally accept a lot of lies, slanders, dirty tricks and crackpottery in the rough and tumble of politics, or would you prefer a lot less of it? What about George Santos? Trump?[2]

Footnote: 

1. Bok wrote:

The social incentives to deceit are at present very powerful; the controls often weak. Many individuals feel caught up in practices they cannot change. It would be wishful thinking, therefore, to expect individuals to bring about major changes in the collective practices of deceit by themselves. Public and private institutions, with their enormous power to affect personal choice, must help alter the existing pressures and incentives. ..... Trust and integrity are precious resources, easily squandered, hard to regain. They can thrive only on a foundation of respect for veracity.

When political representatives or entire governments arrogate to themselves the right to lie, they take power from the public that would not have been given up voluntarily. .... But such cases [that justify lying] are so rare that they hardly exist for practical purposes. .... The consequences of spreading deception, alienation and lack of trust could not have been documented for us more concretely than they have in the past decades. We have had a very vivid illustration of how lies undermine our political system. .... Those in government and other positions of trust should be held to the highest standards. Their lies are not ennobled by their positions; quite the contrary. .... only those deceptive practices which can be openly debated and consented to in advance are justifiable in a democracy.

2. By the time Trump had been in office for a year or so, I came to believe that he should be impeached for lying, deceiving, slandering and crackpotting far too much. His constant dark free speech struck at the heart of democracy, civil liberties, the rule of law, ethics, honest governance, secularism, pluralism, and respect for inconvenient facts, true truths and sound reasoning. His current dark free speech still poisons minds and tries to kill the same good and decent things.

Lest we forget, his final tally of false or misleading statements by the WaPo fact checker: Trump’s false or misleading claims total 30,573 over 4 years 

News bits: Fear paralyzes Biden; The radical right openly questions Democracy

PD comments about the increasingly dire Afghan refugee situation and Biden's paralyzing fear of the radical right:

To be fair the Afghan Adjustment Act does have broad bi-partisan support, but predictably those who opposed it are Republicans-- and they did so on bogus grounds. In particular, Chuck Grassley and Mitch McConnell went out of their way to make sure it was not included in the 2022 year-end spending bill. These are 2 of the most immoral politicians in the Senate, and they're good at being effective immoralists with decades of practice and chops behind them.

As Krish Vignarajah said in the PBS interview above, if one of the MAGA candidates becomes president [in 2024], these Afghan allies will be screwed beyond repair.

That said, even the Dems and Biden have been intimidated into slowing efforts to do the right thing by these right wing radicals you discuss so often. As Mark Hetfield, President and CEO of the Jewish refugee agency, HIAS (the world's oldest refugee agency) aptly stated, due to Republican pressure and criticism, "This [Biden] administration is scared to death of immigration issues." He compared current efforts to resettle those in emergency situations to "an ambulance that moves at a glacial pace." He points out that the Refugee Resettlement Act gives the executive all the powers Biden needs to resettle those who so badly need it in a way that results in a path to citizenship, yet they relied on temporary measures like "humanitarian parole" which is now set to expire. It expires after 2 years for those it covers, and so is NOT a long-term solution to a very long term problem. The Ukrainians have fared a little bit better, but not nearly enough. Again, we arm them yet fail to adequately respond to the staggering refugee crisis that ensues. And it's worse for non-Europeans and non-whites generally.

As Noah Gottschalk (Oxfam America) said,

Ukrainian refugees absolutely deserve protection. But [the White House is] basically creating a loophole for them by doing this while leaving mostly black and brown refugees out in the cold.

Biden needs to lead from principle and not from fear. Unfortunately, we can't change the crazies on the Right. We must bring more pressure to bear on the too-cautious Biden Admin when it comes to this issue. I understand there are real challenges when it comes to immigration, but we can-- and must-- do better than this. (info source: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/23/biden-russia-ukraine-refugees-00019829)

Once again, radical right bigotry and racism are poisoning American politics, policy and moral standing.

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America's slide into authoritarianism and theocracy continues: Politico writes about a terrifying trend among elite young radical right Republicans. They are now openly grappling with the concept of authoritarianism-theocracy over democracy and civil liberties:

The Federalist Society Isn’t Quite Sure About Democracy Anymore

After recent Supreme Court wins, the society’s youth arm debates the next stage for the conservative legal movement

It was the start of the second day of the Federalist Society’s National Student Symposium — an annual gathering of conservative and libertarian law students hosted by the conservative legal behemoth ....

“The people I met at student conferences a decade ago are now sitting federal judges,” said Josh Blackman, a professor at the South Texas College of Law and a fixture of the Federalist Society speaking circuit. “The people you meet here and the networks you build up over years — they’re very, very important.”  

This year’s gathering was even more important than most. As the first student symposium since the Supreme Court handed conservatives a historic package of victories on gun rights, religious freedom, environmental deregulation, and, of course, abortion, the weekend offered a window into the shifting priorities and preoccupations of the youngest and most elite members of the conservative legal movement, at a time when the future of the movement as a whole is quietly unsettled. 

The first major clue about those preoccupations came from the symposium’s theme, which the organizers had designated as “Law and Democracy.” As the programming unfolded over the next day and a half, it became alarmingly clear that, even among the buttoned-up young members of the Federalist Society — an organization not known for its political transgressiveness — the relationship between those two principles is far from settled. From radical new theories about election law to outlandish-seeming calls for a “national divorce” the symposium-goers were grappling with ideas that raised fundamental questions about American democracy — what it means, what it entails, and what, if anything, the conservative legal movement has to say about its apparent decline.

That approach made sense for conservatives when they still saw the federal judiciary as a liberal force dragging the country to the left. But now that conservatives have secured a solid majority on the Supreme Court — and voters in several red states have soundly rejected hard-line positions on abortion — a spirited debate is underway within the Federalist Society about the wisdom of deferring to democratic majorities as a matter of principle.

Think about this for a minute: The radical right openly questions the wisdom of deferring to democratic majorities. What, exactly, is that? It is authoritarianism speaking loud and clear, fascism in my opinion. The authoritarianism can be some form of fascism, brass knuckles capitalism, and/or Christian nationalist theocracy. Those are the main ideologies currently on the table the radical right is dining at. 

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Beyond shameless hypocrisy: The Guardian writes:

Trump deregulated railways and banks. He blames Biden for the fallout

In true hypocritical manner, the ex-president has quickly forgotten why the two sectors are in shambles

“Hypocrisy, thy name is Donald Trump and he sets new standards in a whole bunch of regrettable ways,” said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “For his true believers, they’re going to take Trump’s word for it and, even if they don’t, it doesn’t affect their support of him.”

Not my fault, Joe Biden did it!

Hillary did it! No Joe! No Barak Hussein!

No HUNTER BIDEN did it!

History of Iraq Since US Invasion of March 19, 2003

Today marks the 20th anniversary of the US invasion of Iraq. Retrospective pieces of varying length,  depth and quality are everywhere in news outlets. The following 10 minute video by Al Jazeera provides a concise overview of the history of Iraq from the invasion of March, 2003 to present. It is less concerned with re-litigating the decision to invade (as many media pieces do) than with showing the impacts on Iraq over the period of time covered. Of course, large books on this topic exist, but I thought this vid managed to pack a lot of important content into a short video essay. Many may remember the war, but increasingly those approaching their prime years in the US have few memories of these events, and many who were adults then never really paid much attention to the multiple perspectives of, and impacts on Iraqis themselves. The extent of the damage left in the wake of the invasion, which  is usually neglected by MSM here, is not only a cautionary tale about bellicose US foreign policy gone awry, but just as important, an opportunity to think about the plight of those for whom the consequences of the war cannot be shunted to the side and ignored like yesterday's news, because its ongoing legacy constitutes the fabric of everyday reality in what is arguably a failed state. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9qe5rWiyNc

Oddly, the video does not show up in Blogger's search engine for youtube links, and pasting it directly does provide a link, but does not make it possible to view on this page. So for those interested, I am placing this excellent short (12 min.) video in a Disqus comment box directly below this OP.

Germaine edit: Here's the video.

Is Donald Trump likely to be arrested soon? Will he be indicted?

 Former President Donald Trump predicted Saturday morning that he will be arrested next Tuesday for his role in making an alleged $130,000 hush money payment to an adult film actress in the waning days of the 2016 election to silence her about claims she'd had an affair with him. 

More:Donald Trump claims he will be arrested Tuesday in Manhattan probe, calls for protests

A spokesperson said Trump has gotten no specific notification that he would be indicted.

The speculation about Trump's potential legal trouble as an investigation by the Manhattan District Attorney's office nears its conclusion has put law enforcement and the political world on edge. If Trump's claims prove true, it would mark the first time in U.S. history that a former president has faced criminal charges, legal experts say.

Will he be taken into custody or indicted by a grand jury soon? Here's what we know:

Here’s why Trump's indictment may be imminent 

Trump says he’ll still run for president again if he’s indicted in any of the several current investigations into his conduct. But in one of those probes – in the hush-money case in New York – there are new indications that criminal charges might be imminent, according to new information that’s come to light this week. 

• Trump himself predicted on his social media site Truth Social that he'll be arrested Tuesday in connection with the investigation conducted by the Manhattan District Attorney's office and called on his supporters to protest ahead of a possible indictment by the grand jury hearing evidence in the case. 

Trump has denied wrongdoing, and federal investigators ended their own inquiry into the payments in 2019.

Danielle Filson, a spokesperson for Manhattan's District Attorney's office, declined to comment Saturday on Trump's statement. But there are other indications that an indictment may be imminent. 

• Trump ex-lawyer Michael Cohen's cooperation

Cohen, Trump’s longtime lawyer and fixer, spent two days last week testifying before the grand jury against his former boss. Cohen, who has already served prison time in connection with this and other cases, reiterated his claims that Trump personally instructed him to pay Daniels so it would not hurt his chances of defeating Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.

A source familiar with the investigation told USA TODAY that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and his team are relying on a wealth of evidence to bolster Cohen’s testimony.

That includes volumes of emails, texts and other documentation gathered during search warrants of Cohen’s premises and electronic devices, said the source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the ongoing investigation. 

• Porn actress Stormy Daniels' cooperation

Daniels, who claimed to have an affair with Trump in 2006, was also asked by prosecutors from Bragg’s office to meet with them, and did so by Zoom with her lawyer last Wednesday.

Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, also agreed to be a witness before the grand jury – and during a trial if Trump ultimately is charged with a crime in connection with the payments.

A second source familiar with the investigation said at least seven DA prosecutors and investigators have been involved in the discussions with Daniels and her lawyer, and that she is prepared to share some form of corroborative documentation of her own from the time period in question.

Daniels’ lawyer, Clark Brewster, told USA TODAY he could not comment on what he and Daniels discussed with prosecutors. But he said it was not the first time he has been in touch with them about the case during his representation of Daniels, which began in 2019.

Brewster had no comment on whether Daniels has actually testified before, or has been asked testify, before the Manhattan grand jury that would hand up an indictment in the case.

But Brewster said that Daniels “would make an excellent witness,” citing her cooperation and testimony in the trial of her former lawyer Michael Avenatti.

• Trump's own lawyer's comments

Trump himself was invited to testify before the grand jury, which prosecutors say is a sure sign that the investigation is in its final stages and likely to produce an indictment. After that invitation came to light, Trump's own lawyer in the case, Joe Tacopina, acknowledged the possibility of a looming indictment.

“You know, it's becoming more probable, I think now,” Tacopina told News Nation in an interview Tuesday night, adding, “But the one thing I still hold on to is hope that justice will prevail.”

• Trump's own admissions

Trump himself has, in recent days, admitted to making the payment to stop Daniels from publicly disclosing an alleged affair with him just before the election. Previously, Trump denied complicity in a series of public statements.

“I did absolutely nothing wrong, I never had an affair with Stormy Daniels, nor would I have wanted to have an affair with Stormy Daniels,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social social media platform. “I relied on counsel in order to resolve this extortion of me.”

Some former prosecutors, including Glenn Kirschner and Paul Pelletier, told USA TODAY that such comments could potentially implicate Trump in the suspected criminal wrongdoing under investigation by the DA's office, including making illegal campaign donations. 

Will Trump be handcuffed and arrested if he is indicted?

Kirschner told USA TODAY on Saturday that authorities often negotiate the surrender of a high-profile defendant like Trump to avoid the spectacle of a “perp walk” in which the person is paraded before the media as they enter the courthouse or police station.

“There will be no reason to cuff him and walk him into police headquarters to be booked," Kirschner said.“There will still be a mug shot, fingerprints and lots of paperwork filled out as part of the booking process. So we will see a mug shot of a former President of the United States but I do not think we're going to see a perp walk.”

Trump’s spokesperson told USA TODAY there has been “no notification” related to the timing of possible criminal charges. But the former president’s call for protests caused concern for law enforcement involved in preparing for such an event.

The appeal for demonstrations, said one official familiar with the arrangements, may immediately require a larger security footprint in New York and more agents assigned to shadow the movements of the former president.

Will Trump's call for protests by supporters lead to violence?

Kirschner said authorities should take seriously Trump’s call to action, saying it could potentially result in the kind of widespread rioting that occurred at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

“This is a play right out of Trump’s playbook,” said Kirschner. “We started with ‘Stand back, standby.’ We then moved to ‘Come to DC on January 6 , it’ll be wild.’ Now we have ‘Come to Manhattan for my arraignment. Protest, take our country back.’"

But Kirschner said he doubts Trump’s effort will have the same result this time.

“On January 6, people were aggrieved because they had been told their vote was stolen. So they took it personally. Here. I don't think there's that kind of personal motivator the way there was on January 6,” Kirschner said.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/03/18/what-we-know-donald-trump-indictment/11498610002/

Thoughts:

1. Is Kirschner right OR will there be blood in the streets?

2. Is this going to hurt or help Trump politically?

3. Being charged for hush money but not for Jan. 6 or Georgia might appear  petty in comparison  - but is it better than nothing?

4. What are YOUR plans for Tuesday?