Etiquette



DP Etiquette

First rule: Don't be a jackass.

Other rules: Do not attack or insult people you disagree with. Engage with facts, logic and beliefs. Out of respect for others, please provide some sources for the facts and truths you rely on if you are asked for that. If emotion is getting out of hand, get it back in hand. To limit dehumanizing people, don't call people or whole groups of people disrespectful names, e.g., stupid, dumb or liar. Insulting people is counterproductive to rational discussion. Insult makes people angry and defensive. All points of view are welcome, right, center, left and elsewhere. Just disagree, but don't be belligerent or reject inconvenient facts, truths or defensible reasoning.

Monday, June 3, 2024

Cognitive ability and voting: Is there causation, or even correlation?

The matter of cognitive ability or IQ for Trump supporters comes up occasionally. My understanding was that cognitive ability is not strongly causally or correlatively related to any particular political or economic ideology, mindset or candidate. But is that belief supported or contradicted by modern research? 

Remember, correlation is not necessarily causation. One needs to be very careful about that concern when it comes to politics, IQ and a lot of (most?) other psychological, cognitive and social science research.

Do Smarter People Have More Conservative Economic Attitudes? 
Assessing the Relationship Between Cognitive Ability and Economic Ideology

Evidence on the association of cognitive ability with economic attitudes is mixed. We conducted a meta-analysis (k = 20, N = 46,426) to examine the relationship between objective measures of cognitive ability and economic ideology and analyzed survey data (N = 3,375) to test theoretical explanations for the association. The meta-analysis provided evidence for a small positive association with a weighted mean effect size of r = .07 (95% CI = [0.02, 0.12]), suggesting that higher cognitive ability is associated with conservative views on economic issues, but effect sizes were extremely heterogeneous. Tests using representative survey data provided support for both a positive association of cognitive ability with economic conservatism that is mediated through income as well as for a negative association that is mediated through a higher need for certainty. Hence, multiple causal mechanisms with countervailing effects might explain the low overall association of cognitive ability with economic political attitudes. 
In the political arena, actors often describe their opponents as incompetent or stupid. Indeed, empirical evidence supports the view that a link between cognitive abilities and political attitudes exists. More specifically, most studies indicate that lower cognitive abilities are linked to the endorsement of conservative political views. However, a closer inspection of the evidence on the ideology-ability link reveals that the association between lower scores in cognitive ability tests and conservative political preferences holds in particular for sociocultural attitudes while the evidence with respect to economic attitudes is much more inconsistent. In fact, some studies indicate that the correlation between cognitive abilities and economic conservatism tends to be positive rather than negative. 
Currently, a large body of work indicates a negative association between measures of cognitive ability and the endorsement of conservative sociocultural attitudes. For example, higher scores in right-wing authoritarianism have been shown to be associated with lower scores in cognitive tasks. In a large-scale, nationally representative UK sample, lower general intelligence in childhood has been found to predict the endorsement of conservative ideology at an adult age when controlling for education and socioeconomic status. With respect to voting behavior, lower cognitive abilities were associated with more intentions to vote for Donald Trump and less intentions to vote for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 US presidential elections through effects on right-wing authoritarianism and social dominance orientation. (citations omitted)
That seems to indicate that there probably is a correlation between lower cognitive ability and endorsement of conservative sociocultural attitudes in politics, but maybe no correlation for conservative economic beliefs. 

Politics and Intelligence: Running Against the Cognitive Elite

The 2016 election split the country in large part across educational lines. According to the statistician Nate Silver’s analysis, Clinton won handily in the fifty most well-educated counties in the nation, while Trump similarly prevailed in the fifty least. In Berkeley, home of the nation’s most prestigious public university, Clinton received ninety percent of the vote, while Trump, with three percent, finished third, behind the Green Party candidate. White men without college degrees voted for the Republican candidate at the highest rate since exit polls began; when Trump famously proclaimed his love for “the poorly educated,” it was not without ample justification. .... In a geographical reflection of this educational divide, Trump carried those areas well outside the city center that still relied substantially on manufacturing—the blue-collar workers who had constituted the Democratic base half a century earlier—while the Democrats were now what a Stanford political scientist called “the party of urban, postindustrial America.”

In classic populist fashion, Trump exploited this educational division to create a narrative of conflict between a privileged, parasitic elite, undeserving of its position, and the common folk—between a highly educated but aloof class of people who exercised power to their own advantage as multicultural, global citizens, and the real Americans, a silent majority who sensed instinctively what was right for the country without having to rely on “expert”—i.e., elite—advice. As Trump himself expressed it in the Wall Street Journal six months before his election, “The only antidote to ruinous rule by a small handful of elites is a bold infusion of popular will. On every major issue affecting this country, the people are right and the governing elite are wrong.” People in general in this rhetoric were not meant to be synonymous with “the people,” only some of the former qualifying for inclusion in the latter.

Thus, rather than campaigning on any substantive agenda, Trump ran as a representative of an aggrieved minority resentful of the worldview espoused by The Bell Curve, in which differences in intelligence are offered as justification not only for income inequality but for differences in social status. Neither the book nor its remaining author was mentioned during the campaign, and Trump’s frequent reference to the “elite” was never preceded by the word “cognitive”; indeed, given his limited range of information, it is possible that the future president was not even aware of the academic controversy. But it was clear that this notion of an elite—a “natural aristocracy,” as Herrnstein and Murray had put it—entitled by intellect and education to its prerogatives, provided Trump with a foil against which he posed as avatar of the rage of those average people who sensed their exclusion from this favored group; Trump’s policies might not help them, but he hated the same people they did. Instead of recognizing the “hoi aristoi,” as The Bell Curve had predicted, the “common people” apparently resented them, and the fact that Trump’s opponent, clearly considering herself a member of the elite, characterized so many of his supporters as “deplorables” only served to confirm these feelings of resentment on their part.
From what I can tell, as a group America's rich and/or powerful elite are privileged. In my firm, evidence-based opinion, they have rigged society and our system of government and commerce to further increase their already massive wealth and power. But does that group as a whole, however it is defined, have high cognitive ability compared to the average or the median score? Low education does not necessarily mean low cognitive ability.

Intelligence is correlated with a range of left-wing and liberal political beliefs. This may suggest intelligence directly alters our political views. Alternatively, the association may be confounded or mediated by socioeconomic and environmental factors. We studied the effect of intelligence within a sample of over 300 biological and adoptive families, using both measured IQ and polygenic scores for cognitive performance and educational attainment. We found both IQ and polygenic scores significantly predicted all six of our political scales. Polygenic scores predicted social liberalism and lower authoritarianism, within-families. Intelligence was able to significantly predict social liberalism and lower authoritarianism, within families, even after controlling for socioeconomic variables. Our findings may provide the strongest causal inference to date of intelligence directly affecting political beliefs.
Two meta-analyses of this literature have been performed. Onraet et al. (2015) meta-analysis found intelligence to be negatively correlated with right-wing ideological attitudes (r = .20). However, the correlation depended on the type of right-wing attitude measured, with higher correlations with authoritarianism (r = .30) and ethnocentrism (r = .28) compared to conservatism (r = .13). Jedinger and Burger (2022) found a very small but significant correlation between intelligence and fiscally conservative beliefs (r = .07). Overall, intelligence has been found to be associated with beliefs that can be described as socially liberal and possibly also fiscally conservative. 
Although IQ is known to be associated with political belief, it is not known why this is the case. The relationship between intelligence and political belief could be confounded or mediated by socioeconomic factors and environmental factors more broadly. In this study, we employ polygenic scores, within-family designs and controls to causally identify the direct effect of cognitive ability on political beliefs. We might believe intelligence directly changes political beliefs. Political beliefs likely reflect our ethical values and our empirical beliefs, both of which might be altered by intelligence. Intelligence is related to greater general knowledge (Furnham & Chamorro-Premuzic, 2006), knowledge of economics (Caplan & Miller, 2010) and financial literacy (Lin & Bates, 2022). Moreover, intelligence may be related to subjective values, as it shows correlations with patience (Shamosh & Gray, 2008), openness (Anglim et al., 2022), “emotional intelligence” (MacCann, Joseph, Newman, & Roberts, 2014) and moral judgement in the Defining Issues Test (Derryberry, Jones, Grieve, & Barger, 2007). Onraet et al. (2015) suggested that the use of stereotypes and socially conservative beliefs function as heuristics, utilizing fewer cognitive resources than thinking about social issues on a case-by-case base. This could cause lower cognitive ability to be associated with right-wing views.

Genotypic IQ had a significant effect on all our measures of political beliefs: political orientation, authoritarianism, egalitarianism, social liberalism, fiscal conservatism and a composite of these scales. Across all these traits, genotypic IQ was associated with left-wing beliefs. After we controlled for the average parental polygenic score, we found genotypic IQ still significantly predicted social liberalism, the political composite, and lower levels of authoritarianism. Consistent with Onraet et al. (2015) meta-analysis, we find the largest effect sizes for authoritarianism rather than other measures of ideology.
The authors here argue that higher cognitive ability causes belief in social liberalism and especially lower authoritarianism. That seems to be the general belief that social science research is coming to adopt. Conservative and radical right authoritarian groups and think tanks might push back against this, but maybe that would be expected.

I'll do a separate post about cognitive ability among high income earners. That is important because top earners and wealth generally has more a lot influence on politics and policy than public opinion or social or environmental needs.

Sunday, June 2, 2024

Some history of American sentencing in criminal law; Thoughts on sentencing DJT

The US has come a long way in evolution of its society, democracy, civil liberties and law. Now that the US is on the verge of de-evolving under the pressure of kleptocratic radical right authoritarianism and returning to the dark ages, a bit of history might be of some interest to see some of what we might lose. Writing for the Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology in 2010, law scholar and retired federal judge Nancy Gertner commentated:
A Short History of American Sentencing: 
Too Little Law, Too Much Law, or Just Right

I. COLONIAL JURIES AND SENTENCING

In colonial times, and particularly in the period before American independence, juries were de facto sentencers with substantial power. Many crimes were capital offenses. The result was binary—guilty and death, or not guilty and freedom.  There were few scalable punishments, or punishments involving a term of years. This is so because penitentiaries were not common until the end of the eighteenth century. Jurors plainly understood the impact of a guilty verdict on the defendant because of the relative simplicity of the criminal law and its penalty structure, and often because of the process by which they were selected. They were picked from the rolls of white men with property. Indeed, steps were sometimes taken to secure better qualified people to serve on juries. Juries were hardly representative in the sense that we understand today. The substantive criminal law was the province of the states, and was, for the most part, state common law, often deriving from cases with which the jurors were familiar. 

Like the modern jury, colonial jurors were authorized to give a general verdict without explanation, but unlike the modern jury, the colonial jury was explicitly permitted to find both the facts and the law. If capital punishment were inappropriate, they would simply decline to find guilt, or find the defendant guilty of a lesser crime in order to avoid the penalty of death. No one disparaged this as “jury nullification.”  Ignoring the law to effect a more lenient outcome was well within the jury’s role. In fact, several colonies explicitly provided for jury sentencing.

Thus, in the colonial division of labor, juries had a preeminent role. There was no need for a priori punishment standards or rules, because there was, for the most part, a single punishment. Penal philosophy, at least as a formal matter, was retributive. There was little national federal law, even after independence. Most criminal law derived from the common law and in time, statutes from state legislatures—law with which jurors were familiar.

II. THE ERA OF INDETERMINATE SENTENCING

The turn of the nineteenth century brought scalable punishments— penitentiaries and, in time, reformatories—and thus, a more complex set of sentencing outcomes. The jury could no longer link conviction to a particular sentence even if it had the power to sentence or decide questions of law—and it did not. Now, they were explicitly instructed to find only the facts; judges determined the applicable law. Federal substantive criminal law began to evolve, although most criminal prosecutions were still state-based. And the jury changed: it was more diverse as barriers to serving as jurors were lifted for minorities and women, as were property restrictions. With more and more access to education, a professional class of judges and lawyers evolved, and with it, the power of the jury declined, including the power to affect the sentence.

Unlike other common law countries, appellate review of sentences was extremely limited in American courts. In the federal system, the “doctrine of non-reviewability” prevailed until 1987, when the Federal Sentencing Guidelines became effective. Likewise, only a few states had appellate review of sentencing, and even then it was used “sparingly.” A trial judge’s authority to sentence was virtually unquestioned.

To sum up, judges and parole authorities had the most power relative to the other sentencing players. They were the acknowledged sentencing experts. There were few a priori rules or standards. Each case was resolved on its own merits; to the extent there were standards, they evolved from the day-to-day experience of sentencing individuals. There was little or no appellate review of sentencing.

III. GUIDELINE MOVEMENT 

In response to widespread calls to reform the indeterminate system, a number of states implemented sentencing guidelines. The sentencing guideline approach introduced a new institutional player, an administrative agency—the sentencing commission—charged with generating sentencing standards.36 The role of the commission, its powers vis-à-vis the other sentencing players, and its animating penal philosophy varied from state to state. 

In 1984, the federal government entered into the act with a version of sentencing reform that by the end of the decade would be widely criticized. Congress passed the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984 (SRA), creating the United States Sentencing Commission and abolishing parole. The Commission was supposed to do what Congress had been wholly unable to do, namely, to rationalize sentencing free of political influence, separate from the ever popular “crime du jour.” At the same time, the dominant penal philosophy changed. The public, and certain members of the academy, gave up on rehabilitation as a central purpose of sentencing, instead championing a philosophy known as “limited” retribution. With that change, the locus of sentencing expertise moved from the judges and parole authorities to the Commission, Congress, and, to a degree, the public. Retribution made sentencing more accessible to the public and, ironically, to Congress. What the crime and the criminal deserved could be the subject of debate with the late night talk show host, or in time, the blogosphere.
A. POPULIST PUNITIVENESS 

Crime became the fodder of political campaigns; “lenient” judges were parodied on the evening news and the bourgeoning 24/7 cable outlets. But the popular rage went beyond judges who were supposedly “soft on crime.” Efforts to restrict or even eliminate judicial discretion in sentencing paralleled efforts to strip judges of authority in a number of other areas. In 1981 and 1982 alone, more than two dozen bills stripping or altering federal courts’ jurisdiction were introduced in the Ninety-Seventh Congress. And the anti-judge, significantly anti-federal judge language was vituperative. 
B. MANDATORY MINIMUMS 

Congress, propelled by this atmosphere, passed a succession of mandatory minimum statutes, statutes that were wholly inconsistent with the SRA’s approach and surely with deference to the new “expert” Commission. Indeed, over time Congress directly intervened in Guideline determinations, ordering the Commission to increase this or that guideline. Congress’s role grew as the criminal law became more and more federalized, now accounting for the prosecution of more and more local gun and drug offenses, the kind of street crime that had traditionally been the state’s bailiwick.
Things are not what they used to be. If DJT and the Republicans succeed in overthrowing American democracy and the rule of law, one might expect that over time, the role and power of the jury will shrink and judges will have a lot more leeway to make partisan decisions for partisan purposes. In essence, judges will do what authoritarian politicians tell them to do.
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Writing an opinion for the NYT (not paywalled), Gertner argues for not jailing DJT in the wake of his 34 felony convictions:
While the statute under which he was convicted permits imprisonment, I would not send him to prison. .... My conclusions are based on the public record, my years of experience as a federal judge and a criminal defense lawyer and my decades teaching courses on sentencing at Yale and Harvard Law Schools.

Because falsification of business records in the first degree is a Class E felony under New York law, the possible sentence for each count ranges from probation to up to four years in state prison, a fine or a period of supervised probation that ends with the charges being dismissed as long as Mr. Trump has fully complied with the terms of the probation. New York judges have discretion to pick a punishment within the statutory limits.

One starting point in considering the sentence is looking at treatment other defendants have received who were convicted of the same or similar offenses. While defendants convicted of this offense can be sentenced to some prison time, most are not, especially first offenders, as Mr. Trump is. To be sure, this case is unique. It involved more than falsification; it was about efforts to interfere with an election.

Some have pointed to the fact that Mr. Trump showed no remorse after the verdict. Anyone who has a pending appeal — as he will have after he is sentenced — cannot admit to the charges. His admissions would make it impossible for him to defend himself in a second trial, were this conviction overturned.

But not expressing remorse for the crime is one thing. Attacking the jury is another. Prosecutors, like Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney, are elected officials who exercise discretion in bringing charges. They are fair targets for a defendant. Still, his decision was tested by a jury, 12 neutral citizens who spent six weeks of their lives listening to the evidence, against a standard of proof beyond a reasonable doubt, in an adversary system in which Mr. Trump had virtually unlimited resources to hire lawyers. There is no question that his attacks reflect a fundamental lack of respect for the rule of law, which points to imprisonment.

I would also consider Justice Merchan’s contempt findings. Mr. Trump willfully ignored the court’s rules — behavior that strongly suggests that he will not follow other laws.

But the bottom line is this: The factors pointing to imprisonment are outweighed by Mr. Trump’s unique position. Justice Merchan pulled his punches in imposing fines, not detention, for Mr. Trump’s repeated violations of his court orders. Anyone else would have been jailed. Mr. Trump no doubt will be treated differently — that is, less harshly — than other criminal defendants in our extraordinarily punitive criminal legal system. But we shouldn’t equalize the treatment of defendants by ramping up everyone’s punishment. Our criminal legal system is far too retributive and leans too heavily on imprisonment, no matter what the crime. Besides, Mr. Trump is different, because he was president and could become president again.
The other opinion in the article is by Norman Eisen, who argues that DJT should be jailed. Eisen was special counsel to the House Judiciary Committee for the first DJT impeachment and trial.

I had mixed feelings about putting DJT in the slammer. Home confinement and supervised probation seemed like a possibly better choice. But after reading Gertner’s argument for not jailing him, jailing him now seems to be the more appropriate punishment. 

In Gertner’s moral reasoning, DJT should not be jailed because of his unique position. In my moral thinking, he should be jailed for the same reason. Yes, DJT was unique. He is openly contemptuous of the rule of law and democracy itself. He was a sitting US president who knowingly broke laws to hide his sex scandal to help his deceit-based election. The dates of the records that DJT falsified range from February 14 through December 5, 2017. 

Q1: Should DJT not be jailed because of his unique, elite situation, or should he be treated like anyone else?

Q2: Does America have a two-tiered system of justice, one generally more lenient toward wealthy and/or powerful elites, and the other for everyone else? Put another way, when politicians sanctimoniously tell us that no one is above the law, is that mostly false or a flat out lie?

Defending democracy worldwide; The poisoning of the federal judiciary; Thinking of an American Taliban


That says it all nicely. Good job nice lady with the naughty words!
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Constant attacks on the courts and our legal system by DJT and his morally rotted, authoritarian Republican Party is intended to poison the rule of law in the minds of as many Americans as possible. What America’s radical right authoritarianism wealth and power movement wants to do is to convince Americans that authoritarian elites alone can fix what is allegedly broken in our legal system. That is yet another gigantic authoritarian lie. 

Bloomberg reports about a new step toward poisoning the federal judiciary that authoritarian senate Republicans are taking:
Republicans Vow to Block Future Biden Judicial Nominees

A coalition of Republican senators has vowed not to support any of President Joe Biden’s judicial nominees, effectively blocking the appointment of new district judges in Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, and other states six months before Election Day.

The 10 Republicans also from Utah, Alabama, Missouri, Tennessee, and Kansas said in an open letter on Friday that they won’t vote to confirm the administration’s political and judicial appointees.

“As a Senate Republican conference, we are unwilling to aid and abet this White House in its project to tear this country apart,” according to the letter that encourages other lawmakers to join in blocking more appointments.

“Joe Biden and his army of partisan hack judges have weaponized our judicial system against his political opponent,” Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) said in a tweet Friday. “Words are not enough. Call on your Senator to join our fight— We will block every single Biden judicial nomination until America votes on November 5th.”

The GOP stance means that Biden’s potential nominees to more than a dozen district vacancies won’t be able to move forward in the chamber.

Senate tradition requires US trial court nominees earn home-state senator support in order to advance to a hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee. 
The White House condemned the letter as “radical and hyperpartisan” that prioritizes lawmaker interests above the welfare of their constituents.

The “threats” by Republican lawmakers “would harm the American people in the name of politics and proven lies—whether it’s by blocking the appointment of U.S. Attorneys who prosecute criminals, district judges who sentence them, and U.S. Marshals who protect courthouses and track down fugitives,” presidential spokesman Andrew Bates said in a statement.
As is usual these days, authoritarian radical right (ARR) Republicans cynically and shamelessly blame Biden and the Democrats with being divisive and partisan hacks. The divisive partisan hack force at work here is DJT and ARR Republican politicians and elites who have publicly states that they want to weaponize the rule of law for partisan purposes. All of their rhetoric and partisan hack behavior is just another gigantic ARR lie designed to further damage our democracy, civil liberties, rule of law, respect for truth and tolerant secular society.

One thing that seems to be broken with our rule of law system is that it is too lenient with elite white collar criminals, traitors, corrupt politicians and the like. Look at how hard it was just to get DJT convicted as the felon we all knew he was. And that scumbag still walks free spreading his divisive lies, slanders and crackpot conspiracy theories in his public drive to kill democracy and establish himself as King for life of a kleptocratic dictatorship, heavily infused with kleptocratic plutocracy and bigoted, intolerant, kleptocratic Christian theocracy run by a bigoted, wealthy White Christian male Taliban.  

Well, at least Biden had the guts to criticize the ARR law-poisoning move and correctly say it is based on damaging hyper-partisan politics and proven lies. By golly, there is still a spark of life in Joe.
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A few thoughts about an intolerant, bigoted, kleptocratic American Christian Taliban: 




One still gets to vote, the other doesnt?



At the 1/6 coup attempt or was it patriots engaging in
innocent, legitimate political discourse?










Teeth ridiculous?

For the lolcat non-cognoscenti:
A lolcat (pronounced /ˈlɒlkæt/ LOL-kat), or LOLcat, is an image macro of one or more cats. Lolcat images idiosyncratic and intentionally grammatically incorrect text is known as lolspeak


Q1: Is there such a thing as an American Christian Taliban, or is it too early to call it out, or is it non-existent?

Q2: If there is such a thing as intentionally grammatically incorrect lolspeak, is there such a thing as an intentionally socially incorrect lolburp? 

Saturday, June 1, 2024

Vermont law: Oil companies liable for climate change; The plan to kill democracy

Vermont becomes 1st state to enact law requiring oil companies 
to pay for damage from climate change

Vermont has become the first state to enact a law requiring fossil fuel companies to pay a share of the damage caused by climate change after the state suffered catastrophic summer flooding and damage from other extreme weather.

Republican Gov. Phil Scott allowed the bill to become law without his signature late Thursday, saying he is very concerned about the costs and outcome of the small state taking on “Big Oil” alone in what will likely be a grueling legal fight. But he acknowledged that he understands something has to be done to address the toll of climate change.

“I understand the desire to seek funding to mitigate the effects of climate change that has hurt our state in so many ways,” Scott, a moderate Republican in the largely blue state of Vermont, wrote in a letter to lawmakers.
“For too long, giant fossil fuel companies have knowingly lit the match of climate disruption without being required to do a thing to put out the fire,” Paul Burns, executive director of the Vermont Public Interest Research Group, said in a statement. “Finally, maybe for the first time anywhere, Vermont is going to hold the companies most responsible for climate-driven floods, fires and heat waves financially accountable for a fair share of the damages they’ve caused.”

Maryland, Massachusetts and New York are considering similar measures.

The American Petroleum Institute, the top lobbying group for the oil and gas industry, has said it’s extremely concerned the legislation “retroactively imposes costs and liability on prior activities that were legal, violates equal protection and due process rights by holding companies responsible for the actions of society at large; and is preempted by federal law.” 

It is about time someone started getting serious about who is going to pay for the human and environmental costs of oil companies taking profits for decades without any social conscience or accountability. No doubt the oil cos. will immediately haul this law into court and attack it until it is either dead and gone, or it is vindicated. Dead and gone is probably the most likely outcome. But, hope still springs eternal.
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John Yoo -- he wants to unleash the dogs of
legal war against Democrats
(Yay! Bring on the lawyers!!)

NY Mag writes about the GOP's plan for any criminal lawsuit against DJT: 
Republicans have long been predicting that criminal charges against Donald Trump would lead to Republicans ginning up charges against Democrats out of pure revenge. The prediction, of course, was designed to legitimate it. And now, inevitably, members of the Republican legal Establishment have moved from predicting this turn of events to advocating for it.

John Yoo, the former Bush administration lawyer (who himself escaped prosecution for his role in constructing legal justifications to torture detainees, many of whom turned out to be held wrongfully in the first place), has an essay in National Review arguing for revenge prosecutions. The imprimatur of Yoo, a Berkeley law professor and fellow at two of the conservative movement’s least-insane think tanks (the American Enterprise Institute and the Hoover Institution), underscores the progression of “lock her up” from wild seriously-not-literally Trump-campaign demagoguery in 2016 to party doctrine in 2024.

“Repairing this breach of constitutional norms will require Republicans to follow the age-old maxim: Do unto others as they have done unto you,” urges Yoo. “In order to prevent the case against Trump from assuming a permanent place in the American political system, Republicans will have to bring charges against Democratic officers, even presidents.”   
The deepest conceptual flaw in Yoo’s demands for legal revenge is his belief that Trump is an innocent victim. “Democrats have crossed a constitutional Rubicon,” he argues. Before now, he claims, opportunities to prosecute presidents abounded but were never taken, out of principle:

Gerald Ford, in a great act of statesmanship, pardoned Richard Nixon even though it doomed his chances in the close 1976 election. Bush did not prosecute Bill Clinton for lying to the Whitewater special counsel, even though Clinton’s Justice Department had conceded that he would become legally liable once he left office. Obama did not attempt to relitigate the difficult policy decisions made during the War on Terror by prosecuting Bush and his aides (of which I was one). Trump did not order the investigation of Hillary Clinton, even though her intentional, illegal diversion of thousands of classified emails to her home computer network was a central theme during his campaign. Nor had local or state prosecutors dared to interfere with the workings of the presidency before.
It is pretty clear where this unwarranted partisan malice is going. Just like Hitler could not be appeased, it is clear that DJT and the authoritarian GOP cannot be appeased. Sometimes history rhymes. It is rhyming right now. 

A silver lining?
But maybe there is a silver lining here. If both main political parties shift to focus on finding lawbreaking in each other, maybe the rule of law will benefit. Maybe it would be a little like legalizing same-sex marriage -- legalization strengthened the institution of marriage. It seems to me that the law is too often not vindicated, especially against elite white collar criminals like DJT. Why not make more use of existing laws?

For example, a gun law that Hunter Biden broke is being (or has been) used to prosecute him, but prosecutions of that gun law are rare. If memory serves, less than ~0.2% (about 1 in 500) of violations of that gun law are prosecuted. Although Hunter's gun law infraction was minor, lasting for just 11 days, Republicans had to find some way to prosecute him for something. That is what they could find, apparently also along with some tax cheating. NBC News reported last year about the gun and tax laws that Hunter broke:
The federal gun charge, which makes it unlawful for a drug addict to possess a weapon, is a rarely used statute that is facing legal challenges and has recently been used as a catch-all charge against white supremacists.

Like the gun charge, the tax charges are rarely brought against first-time offenders and even more rarely result in jail time, Andrew Weissmann, a former FBI general counsel and NBC News contributor, tweeted Tuesday. “This is if anything harsh, not lenient,” he wrote.  
Paul Butler, a former federal prosecutor and an NBC News legal analyst, said on MSNBC on Tuesday that the deal Hunter Biden reached was a decent outcome for the president's son, but not the “sweetheart deal” that Trump and his allies have made it out to be.
If a person is serious about vindicating the rule of law, prosecution for violation of unenforced gun and tax laws should be the norm, not a rare exception. What some pro-Trump commentators and political blowhards, e.g., the liar-hypocrite Mitch McConnell, are saying about the felony convictions of DJT in NY state court is that the misdemeanor book-keeping errors that DJT knowingly committed were minor and should never have been prosecuted in the first place. 

Just because a crime is minor, does that morally justify not prosecuting it? In my moral mindset, two wrongs = two wrongs, not a right. Committing the crime is one wrong, not prosecuting it is another. 

As far as I am concerned, I hope that the elite Dems and Repubs bring a tidal wave of prosecutions against each other, including prosecutions by one side for all unfounded prosecutions by the opposing side. It is fair, rational and pro-democracy to actually seriously believe in the rule of law, especially for rich and/or powerful elites. They are the ones who can afford to endlessly game the system to escape justice, just like DJT had successfully done for decades and is still doing in the remaining three criminal lawsuits against him.

Qs: Why are the tax and gun charges are rarely brought against first-time offenders and even more rarely result in jail time? What is the point of having laws if they are rarely enforced, e.g., do they give prosecutors leverage against defendants? Or is Germaine, once again, off his rocker, out to lunch, over the top or otherwise an over-agitated, handsome, young nincompoop?

A distinction without a difference?


Here’s something on the heavy side for a weekend question, and something I think about occasionally: 

Q: Are people who proclaim a religion (e.g., Christians, Jews, Muslims) cult members?  Why/why not?

 

What is a cult, really?  Webster defines it as:

 


  • Is calling religion “a cult” just a mean, emotionally-charged claim and not really being fair (objective) about it? 

  • What does it take to call/refer to some organization as a cult?  I.e., what are the necessary components for cultism (e.g., distinct leader(s), focal points, specific ideology, mission, etc.)?

  • What are the dividing line distinctions between cult/not a cult (e.g., enough/not enough group think to qualify, real versus non-real/non-verifiable claims, etc.)?

  • Is being in a cult “shameful?”  If yes, why (e.g., stereotyping, insulting, etc.)?  If not, why not (e.g., has mass appeal, has lofty goals, etc.)?

  • If you are religious or have some religious leanings, do you consider yourself a cult member?  Explain your position.

Take some time to think about it in earnest.


by PrimalSoup

Friday, May 31, 2024

The convicted felon pretends to back away from Project 2025; Commentary on the verdict

Hm, guess the verdict 
did come out so well?

Salon writes that the convicted felon (it feels so nice to write that) and kleptocratic dictator wannabe DJT claims he is backing away from Project 2025:
Trump is now trying to downplay Project 2025

Trump’s campaign issued a statement distancing the former president from a plan drawn up by former staffers

Project 2025 (and its auxiliary Trump’s “Agenda 47”) are a plan by right-wing extremists and other authoritarians to end America’s multiracial democracy and to replace it with a White Christian nationalist plutocracy.

A conspiracy is a plan by two or more people operating in private to advance their interests and goals above those of some other person(s) — or in this context the American people. Project 2025 is not a conspiracy. These plans are exhaustively detailed in a book titled “Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise” and are regularly discussed at conferences, in interviews, and in other public forums. Project 2025 and its related plans, like Agenda 47, were not hatched overnight. As author and journalist Anne Nelson and other experts have been extensively documenting, Project 2025 and the other right-wing extremists’ and neofascists' plans to end America’s multiracial democracy have been years and decades in development:

But ignore it at your peril. The massive tome is the latest iteration of a four-decade-long process of crafting right-wing policies to dismantle the federal government, deregulate industry and eliminate consumer protections and public health measures, while installing a regime controlled by fossil fuel interests and the Religious Right. Not coincidentally, the members of its advisory board have been making headlines attacking American institutions at a grassroots level, in preparation for the big takeover—ranging from Moms4Liberty’s assaults on local public schools, to the Koch-founded Institute on Energy Research’s war on climate initiatives.

Project 2025 lays out specifics for hundreds of policy objectives affecting every area of public life. Many of them affect three primary areas: first, the dismantling of environmental regulations, clean energy measures, and climate policy; second, a rollback of civil and political rights for women and LGBTQ populations and the elimination of public health measures; and third, a massive purge of career civil servants and the concentration of power in the Executive branch in the White House, to consolidate an entrenched authoritarian regime.

Public opinion polls and other research have repeatedly shown that a large percentage of the American public remains unaware of the existential danger that Donald Trump and his MAGA movement and the other neofascists and authoritarians represent to the country’s democracy and freedom. It is the responsibility of the Fourth Estate to wake the American people up from their sleepwalking and political zombification. As an institution, the American news media has largely failed in this obligation.  
To awaken from and escape the Age of Trump and this worsening democracy crisis, the American people need more pro-democracy journalism that illuminates, informs, and gives them solutions. Unfortunately, such work is an outlier in American mainstream news media that largely remains ill-equipped to meet the challenges of the Age of Trump, the global democracy crisis, and what comes next with the 2024 election and beyond.
The Salon article is quite long. It points out the few MSM sources that have gone woke, see the threat and call it what it is, i.e., authoritarianism, neofascism, Christofascism, fascism, plutocracy, etc. So far, I am not aware of anyone calling the authoritarian radical right agenda kleptocracy or kleptocratic. However, that is also a key part of what the radical right wealth and power movement is all about. The radical right is not just about setting up a dictatorship-plutocracy-theocracy. It is also very much about accumulating a lot more wealth for the already wealthy people and interests who run our already seriously corrupted government.

Q: Why is the American mainstream news media largely ill-equipped to meet the challenges of the Age of Trump and the global democracy crisis? Media ownership by corrupt corporations and greedy plutocrats? 
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The NYT reports (not paywalled) on the verdict that made DJT a convicted felon:
Live Updates: Trump Lashes Out After Conviction in Misleading Speech

Donald J. Trump, the first U.S. president to become a felon, excoriated prosecutors and the judge in his criminal case and ran through a litany of false statements as he spoke to reporters and a small crowd of vetted supporters at Trump Tower in Midtown Manhattan.

In a rambling and misleading 33-minute speech, derided the trial as “rigged” and attacked the judge in his first public comments since a Manhattan jury found him guilty of all 34 felony counts of falsifying records to cover up a sex scandal that threatened to derail his 2016 presidential campaign. He also made numerous misleading statements about the case and what took place at the trial.

Mr. Trump, who said he would appeal the verdict, continued to attack people who testified against him in the seven-week trial, specifically his former fixer, Michael D. Cohen, the star witness for the prosecution. He also admitted that he got “very upset” with his lawyers.
Good, he is upset with his lawyers. I hope he fires all of them and refuses to pay them. That would help in the DJT personal chaos department.

The WaPo reports (not paywalled) on an issue that is personally concerning, namely the overall impact of DJT on the rule of law:
Even as Trump is found guilty, his attacks take toll on judicial system

That the hush money trial happened at all is a sign of democracy working, analysts say, but Trump’s all-out offensive dealt a “body blow” to the judiciary

For months, top advisers to Donald Trump expected that he would be convicted by a New York jury on all 34 felony counts. So Trump and his team waged an all-out war against the judicial system before the verdict came in, hoping to blunt the political damage and position him as a martyr.

They sent hundreds of fundraising appeals attacking the prosecutors and the system, raising millions of dollars on false claims. They lined up allies outside the courthouse almost every day to question the fairness of the proceedings. Trump attacked the judge, the judge’s daughter and, finally, even the jury — ordinary, anonymous New Yorkers called to perform their basic civic duty.

But amid the relentless offensive by Trump and his allies on the legal infrastructure holding him accountable, the trial came with a substantial cost, according to those who study democracy, with the ultimate impact likely to be measured in November.

“The judicial system has taken a body blow from Trump’s assaults,” said Kim Lane Scheppele, a professor of sociology at Princeton University who studies the rise and fall of constitutional government. Forcing him to sit through the trial, follow orders and listen to evidence against himself meant that “his rage at being controlled by others is going to be directed at trying to bring the whole judicial system down with him.”

Indeed, Trump went on a long diatribe after his conviction was announced. “This was a disgrace,” he said. “This was a rigged trial by a conflicted judge who was corrupt.”
Time will tell how the damage manifests. We can only hope that it will not be crippling, e.g., by getting DJT re-elected, claiming false martyrdom. 

We cannot go back in time and undo to vast damage that Merrick Garland did by delaying any prosecution of DJT for so long. Garland failed miserably. What he did could easily turn out to be too little, too late. This New York state verdict alone may not be sufficient to protect the rule of law.