Performance updates

The bad news is coming fast and furious. It's like drinking out of a fire hose.

All I can do is touch on some of the dictatorship nastiness to come.

Trump draft executive order would set up board to oust generals en masse: Report

(my prediction that DJT would at least try to get the US military to flip from allegiance to the Constitution to allegiance to the dictator seems to be true)

President-elect’s son also appears to mock Volodymyr Zelensky amid speculation Ukraine could lose war funding

Trump prepares to withdraw from Paris climate agreement, NYT reports (another prediction seems to be comfortably on track)

Trump taps former New York congressman Lee Zeldin as EPA chief -- Zeldin lacks an extensive background in environmental policy and will be tasked with rolling back regulations. “It is an honor to join President Trump’s Cabinet as EPA Administrator,” Zeldin posted on X on Monday. “We will restore US energy dominance, revitalize our auto industry to bring back American jobs, and make the US the global leader of AI. We will do so while protecting access to clean air and water.” (yup, I'm still on track)

Republicans Win Control of House, Cementing a G.O.P. Trifecta Under Trump -- The party protected vulnerable incumbents and picked off Democrats in competitive districts, handing the president-elect a unified Congress to enact his agenda. (still good)

House Ethics Panel Was Set to Vote to Release Report Critical of Matt Gaetz -- Now, with Mr. Gaetz’s departure from Congress, the committee no longer has jurisdiction to investigate him. It was not immediately clear whether it would still release its findings. Tom Rust, the chief counsel and staff director for the panel, declined to comment. ///// Gaetz resigned days before ethics investigation report was expected -- The former congressman stepped down after Trump named him as his pick for attorney genera (yup, the rule of law and ethics are nicely crumbling into dust as predicted)

For legal disputes, Elon Musk’s X picked a venue far from Texas HQ -- By changing his company’s terms of service, Elon Musk has ensured that lawsuits against X will be heard in courthouses that are a hub for conservative judges (what was that prediction? .... oh yeah: Worker and consumer protections will significantly decrease as power flows to corporations -- still on track)

Putin Gives Trump Massive Middle Finger, Days After Warning on Ukraine -- The Russian leader is making it clear that Donald Trump has zero power to stop Russia’s deadly war on Ukraine (the prediction was that there will be mass slaughter in the Ukraine (and Gaza), but I didn't expect it to come like this, I expected DJT and Putin to secretly agree to gut the Ukraine and force a "peace treaty" on it -- this may just be political theater to hide that plan)

Trump floats seeking third term in joke to House Republicans -- “I suspect I won’t be running again, unless you do something,” Trump said, according to pool reports and audio shared with The Hill. “Unless you say, ‘He’s so good, we have to just figure it out.’” (he's not joking)

 

Updated and revised predictions

Welp ladies & germs, with DJT's selection of sex pervert Matt Gaetz as attorney general, I hereby officially claim that most of my 11/6/24 predictions of things to come by 11/1/26 will be mostly true. That is despite the wuss squeaks of "concern" from some powerless, gutless Republican politicians in congress and maybe elsewhere. Trump really is going to burn the whole damned thing down. I have seen enough. I was right.

Looking forward

We can reasonably estimate the trade DJT made that led to his Gaetz pick. Actually I argue that we really know. Gaetz gets off the hook in return for Trump being impervious to prosecution for any and all crimes, which Gaetz will say are official acts for which a sitting president is immune. That is now the definitive end of the rule of law and the beginning of the rule of the thug.

Q: I need a citation to Trump saying that he respected Eric Holder for protecting Obama from prosecution.

A: President Donald Trump expressed his respect for former Attorney General Eric Holder's protection of President Barack Obama in an interview with The New York Times published on December 28, 2017. Trump stated, "I don't want to get into loyalty, but I will tell you that, I will say this: Holder protected President Obama. Totally protected him," and added, "When you look at the things that they did, and Holder protected the president. And I have great respect for that, I'll be honest."

This comment was made in the context of Trump's frustration with his own Attorney General, Jeff Sessions, who had recused himself from the Russia investigation. Trump contrasted Sessions' actions with Holder's, suggesting that he admired Holder's loyalty to Obama.

You know, for those who still claim our democracy will stand, I think you are wrong. But on the happy side, I hope you are right. 

When the public backlash comes, it it probably be too little and too late. The next chapter of America is now, more likely than not, predicated on a major social backlash. I just hope the backlash does not take the form of a civil war. 

More predictions

Predictions added to my 11/6/24 batch:

1. Federal data collection functions will be (i) stopped entirely, or (ii) almost completely kept from the public, and spun into lies when the data is inconvenient. (That was a Ronald Reagan tactic -- I think he invented it)

2. The degree of neutering and silencing of the mainstream will be almost complete because the capitalist billionaires and capitalist corporations who own news media will be cowed into towing the line in Trump's deeply corrupt authoritarian sphere.

3. Universities and colleges will be forced by threat of withholding federal funding into silence about teaching real history, global warming science and whatever else rubs radical right authoritarianism the wrong way.

4. The independence of the Federal Reserve will be neutered and weaponized.

5. Consolidation of federal executive, legislative and judicial power with radical right authoritarianism sufficient to establish single-party rule in the US. 

6. MAGA opponents will be attacked, e.g., by forcing the IRS to investigate political opposition, and by DJT's claim he will use his power to shut them down.

7. Whatever else I am unable to conjure right now. (Update 11/14/24: I forgot, the CFPB and NLRB will be mostly neutered so that consumer and worker protections can be eroded without much or any government pushback) 

Shall we chat?

Q: Is Germie off his nut or uncomfortably maybe mostly right? 

How authoritarian radical right Federalist Society elites see themselves

A great place to look at the rise of radical right American authoritarianism is Yale. That is where the shockingly powerful Federalist Society (FS) was founded and spreads its radical right authoritarian ideology from. A Yale Daily News article makes it clear that members of the FS see themselves as patriotic conservatives or libertarians, not radical right authoritarians:

How the Federalist Society shaped America’s judiciary

The Federalist Society, a conservative organization founded at Yale Law School, built a pipeline between law schools and top judgeships and influenced the selection of the past three Supreme Court justices

When former President Donald Trump began the review process for nominating a Supreme Court justice in 2017, Leonard Leo — the former vice president and current co-chairman of the Federalist Society — worked with the Trump administration and Republicans on the Senate Judiciary Committee to propose potential candidates.

Under Leo’s guidance in 2018, Trump nominated Brett Kavanaugh ’87 LAW ’90, who has been connected with the Federalist Society for at least 24 years. In 2017 and 2020, Leo’s creation of a list of potential Supreme Court nominees for Trump helped to advise the appointment of two other Federalist Society affiliates, Justices Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett.

By 2024, six of the nine Supreme Court justices considered themselves members or affiliates of the Federalist Society — the culmination of a longstanding pipeline connecting members of Federalist Society chapters at America’s top law schools to high-level judgeships and political offices.

The Federalist Society, a debating organization that hosts political events and acts as a network for conservative and libertarian students and professionals, was founded at Yale Law School in 1982 by three Yale alumni: Steven Calabresi ’80 LAW ’83, David McIntosh ’80 and Lee Liberman Otis ’79. Today, the Society is represented at all 204 ABA-accredited law schools in the country, has established communities of affiliated lawyers in 60 cities and has over 70,000 members.

The Federalist Society has since defined itself as a “group of conservatives and libertarians interested in the current state of the legal order,” according to its website. According to its three founders, the Federalist Society’s original goal was to provide a space on law school campuses for debating ideas across the political spectrum.

With six of the nine current Supreme Court justices serving as members or affiliates of the Federalist Society — Clarence Thomas LAW ’74, Samuel Alito LAW ’75, John Roberts, Kavanaugh, Barrett and Gorsuch — the group’s impact on the national judiciary is notably more significant than its founders anticipated.  

In the past, the Federalist Society was committed to the three elements of modern legal conservatism: textualism in statutory interpretation, originalism in constitutional interpretation and judicial restraint. .... However, [politically liberal, Harvard law professor Noah Feldman] sees this shared interpretation as being at risk. He cited examples of how justices associated with the society, like Alito and Gorsuch, have begun to deviate from textualism, contrary to the society’s stated goals.  

According to Feldman, should Trump win the 2024 election, Trump’s close ties to the Federalist Society’s network would ensure that any judge appointments within the next four years are members of the tight-knit society.

Two judges — Thomas, 72, and Alito, 74 — are approaching the age of retirement, and politicians expect a Supreme Court vacancy to open during the upcoming 60th presidency. 

Alongside the presidential election, 305 appellate court seats are on the ballot in 2024, including 69 state supreme court seats this November. 32 of the candidates running for state supreme court positions are affiliated with the Federalist Society.  (emphases added)

The power of the FS is undeniable. But what evidence is there that radical right authoritarianism is dominant over conservatism and libertarianism? In my opinion there is a plenty of evidence to support that opinion. So much so that it arguably amounts to a fact, not mere opinion. And of course, there are some Federalist Society members who really are old-fashioned conservatives or libertarians, but they are now on the fringes.

The open question now is whether Trump will keep taking FS picks, some of whom were ranked as unqualified by the American Bar Association, or will he ignore the FS off and pick judges purely on the basis of loyalty to him and their corruptibility.

Regardless, under DJT we can reasonably expect the federal judiciary to be significantly more radical right authoritarian and noticeably more corrupt than it already is. The rule if law, such as it is now, will be significantly or largely converted to the rule of Trump. Arguably, that has already happened with the two 2024 USSC decisions to (i) immunize Trump against crimes committed while in office, and (ii) legalize bribery of federal politicians and judges. 

Heck, DJT could appoint another USSC judge if Sonia Sotomayor, in her poor health, pulls a Ruth Bader Ginsberg, and has to be replaced. That would give Republican authoritarian judges an overwhelming 7-2 majority. 

Blog note: The dam holding back radical right authoritarianism has fallen

Since the election, the topics for posting here has exploded. My limited bandwidth cannot come close to dealing with all of it. Dozens of articles are coming out daily and I just cannot keep up. The pent-up RRA (radical right authoritarian) dam has collapsed after decades of increasingly weak resistance. Democracy, civil liberties, the rule of law and honest governance are now facing their final assault.  Just one tiny example from today:

President-elect Trump is testing the loyalty of Senate Republicans, calling on them to allow him to make recess appointments to the executive and judicial branches without the advice and consent of the Senate.  

But Senate Republicans are extremely reluctant to publicly criticize Trump after he won a resounding victory on Election Day.

How much clearer can this be? That is a direct assault on the rule of law and respect for it. Are there any Republicans in congress willing to stand up to Trump? Probably not. And if they do, can they be re-elected? No, not under current circumstances. 

At this point, I am now confident that almost all or all of the predictions I posted on 11/6/24 about future events from the election to 1/11/26 will turn out to be right. As far as I am concerned some of them have already turned out to be right.

My current estimate: If the House falls to the Republican Party, there's about a 60% chance our democracy will have fallen by 11/1/26 to radical right authoritarianism. right now, it looks like there is ~85% chance of that happening. But, don't trust me. Here's the data as of a few minutes ago (posted 12:14 PST, 11/12/24):

Harris' messaging, mostly positive, negative or ambiguous?: Thinking about thinking

My recollection of Harris' campaign speeches and rhetoric was that it was mostly more or less positive messaging on policy, uniting the country and etc., and most of the rest was negative messaging about Trump. A lot of people assert the opposite. Not knowing how to go about trying to answer that, I asked Perplexity:

Q: Can you search several hundred news items and estimate how much of Harris' campaign speech dealt with attacking Trump and how much dealt with other things. A lot of people say that Harris mostly vilified Trump and did not articulate her own policies. But my recollection is that she directed most of her rhetoric to policy and positive messaging. I know you cannot come up with a precise answer, but at least sample enough to have some reasonable estimate.

A: Based on the available information, a rough estimate of Harris' campaign speech content might break down as follows:

1. 40-50% focused on policy proposals and positive messaging

2. 30-40% dedicated to criticizing Trump and contrasting her vision with his

3. 10-20% addressing other campaign-related topics and responding to current events

It's important to note that this is an approximation based on the limited information available in the search results. The actual balance likely varied from speech to speech and evolved over the course of the campaign. However, the evidence suggests that Harris' campaign was not solely focused on vilifying Trump, but rather used criticism of him as part of a broader strategy to articulate her own vision and policies for the country.

Based on that answer, my personal recollection-based intuition now is ~60% positive and policy, ~30% negative on Trump and ~10% other. Before the Perplexity estimate, my intuition was that the content of Harris' speeches were mostly positive and policy, and most of the rest negative on Trump, i.e., not very precise. 

And, just for the halibut 🐟:

Q2: Please do the same analysis and estimate for Trump's messaging.

A2: Approximately 50-60% of his messaging was devoted to criticizing opponents and painting a bleak picture of the country under Democratic leadership. His use of violent language and imagery increased significantly, reaching levels higher than most other U.S. politicians analyzed.

While Trump did discuss some policy proposals, they appeared to take up a smaller portion of his speeches compared to attacks: Roughly 20-30% of his rhetoric focused on his own policy proposals and vision for the country.

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Below the lines 

For the wonks:

Thinking about thinking and belief formation

Also just for the halibut regarding matters of critical thinking, reasoning and personal biases, at Q3 & A3, also in the search link I posted above, I asked Perplexity if my revised estimate based on its analysis and estimate was being Bayesian. Perplexity said yes, that is Bayesian reasoning. Then at Q4 & A4 and Q5 & A5, I got more wonky about what being Bayesian means. Those last two Q&As reflect my style of reasoning as applied to politics and they partly get at why politics is usually rather messed up. 

I learned about the importance of being Bayesian about politics mostly from social scientist Philip Tetlock's two books, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? and Superforecasting: The Art And Science Of Prediction. Before I became aware of Tetlock, updating beliefs in view of new evidence was intuitive but not prominent in my mindset. 

Also, the latter book Superforecasting, was the first time I was exposed to ways to measure the outer limits of the human capacity to predict future events. A very few people are quite good at it. They are not perfect, but fairly accurate to about 12-16 months in the future. And, they are not trained professionals. They are just regular people with the right mindset, which includes naturally being Bayesian and having several other mental traits. For what it's worth, probably most people actually can learn to be more Bayesian than they are, but it is a very hard thing to be consistent about. 

Regarding my conception of radical right authoritarianism

I generally refer to DJT and his MAGA wealth and power movement by the label "radical right authoritarian" (RRA). But exactly what does RRA mean as I intend it? This is not an argument for anyone to accept my description or definition of RRA. Instead, it is an explanation so that people better understand what I mean by RRA and why I apply that label. This post is prompted by constant criticisms of me using the labels like authoritarian and radical right authoritarianism to apply to MAGA elites. I leave what the MAGA rank and file are for a separate post because that topic is complicated. 

Radical: Wikipedia describes radical politics like this:

Radical politics denotes the intent to transform or replace the fundamental principles of a society or political system, often through social change, structural change, revolution or radical reform. The process of adopting radical views is termed radicalization.

By radical I mean politics, policies and tactics that arguably fall in Wikipedia's description of radical politics. I firmly believe that the Republican Party radicalized a great deal since ~1980, especially since ~2000. Some major fundamental principles that most GOP elites apparently want to significantly change are secularism in society and government, civil liberties, the nature of the rule of law and democracy, and the distribution of power within the federal government and between the federal government, commerce, religion and the states.

Right: That refers to policies most people would consider to be politically more or less traditional or right-wing on the left-right political spectrum. Obviously that can be and often is contested. American society has become more right-wing than in recent decades.

Authoritarian: To some people, this is a contentious concept. To me it is messy, but pretty clear. Note that I do not use the terms fascism or Nazism. Authoritarianism is a genus, that includes fascism, Nazism and other forms that authoritarianism can include, e.g., theocracy. As one can imagine, authoritarianism is a messy concept, because two or more of the various species can and often do overlap. To start off, this definition although narrower than mine, might help.

Authoritarianism: The concentration of power in the hands of a small group of people who act in ways that are not constitutionally accountable to the people they are meant to represent and serve.

Perplexity gives a more expansive description of authoritarianism -- this is how I see the concept:

Q: What is the most authoritative definition or description of authoritarianism?

A: Authoritarianism is a political system characterized by several key traits:

1. Concentration of power: Power is centralized in the hands of a single leader, party, or small group that is not constitutionally accountable to the people.

2. Limited political pluralism: There is restricted or no political competition and opposition.

3. Suppression of civil liberties: Individual freedoms, civil rights, and political freedoms are curtailed.

4. Rejection of democratic norms: Democratic rules and institutions are undermined or ignored.

5. Use of repression: The regime often employs political repression, censorship, and force to maintain control.

6. Lack of accountability: Leaders are not answerable to the public through free elections or other democratic mechanisms.

7. Arbitrary exercise of power: The government often operates outside established legal frameworks.

8. Personality cult: There may be an emphasis on the leader's authority and charisma.

9. Limited ideology: Unlike totalitarian regimes, authoritarian systems often lack a comprehensive guiding ideology.

10. Control of institutions: The regime seeks to dominate key societal institutions like the media, military, and judiciary.

Authoritarianism exists on a spectrum, with some regimes displaying more extreme characteristics than others. It stands in contrast to democracy, which emphasizes individual rights, political pluralism, and government accountability to the people.

I want to emphasize this: Authoritarianism exists on a spectrum, with some regimes displaying more extreme characteristics than others. That is why I do not currently consider the radical right authoritarianism I believe dominates the American MAGA movement to be fascism or Nazism. We are not very close that point yet. MAGA wants to move us in that direction. But how much authoritarianism the movement can impose in the next 4 years is still an open question.

Regarding being radical right, MAGA arguably is radical, not merely conservative, but it is definitely right-wing. 

My assessment of the ten traits of where American radical right authoritarianism, i.e., the MAGA power and wealth movement, stands at present. Future events can alter this analysis.

1. Concentration of power: Within the MAGA movement itself, power is highly concentrated in DJT. On this trait, MAGA itself is full-blown authoritarian. If the Republicans take the House overwhelming federal power will be concentrated with the party, but with DJT still being the main power. MAGA intends to limit the NLRB, basically abandoning labor to the tender mercies of employers. The CFPB, already severely weakened by MAGA, will be further weakened, if not obliterated, leaving consumers to the tender mercies of banks, credit card companies and huge financial institutions. Power is already flowing from US citizen protections and government institutions that defend them.

2. Limited political pluralism: At this point, MAGA has made it clear that it will try to restricted political competition and opposition, including muzzling the mainstream media. The MAGA media will become more open about its sympathies, e.g., Faux News openly calling for execution of the federal prosecutor Jack Smith. We all saw what MAGA did to Jeff Bezos at the WaPo, i.e., scared him into refusing to endorse Harris. Trump's and MAGA's threats against pluralism are explicit and undeniable.

3. Suppression of civil liberties: The MAGA movement already has significantly damaged  civil liberties. Both abortion rights and voting rights have been reduced. Other rights, such as same-sex marriage and LGBQT rights are now under direct attack or threatened.   

4. Rejection of democratic norms: MAGA is openly contemptuous of democratic rules, norms and institutions. That is a matter of public record, not rational debate. Laws, ethics and norms already have been undermined or ignored, and that currently ongoing trend will continue. MAGA will sweep away whatever significant norms are left, if any, a process that is underway right now.

5. Use of repression: Trump and MAGA have made clear and beyond the point of rational debate that political repression, censorship, and force to expand authoritarianism at the expense of democracy is on the agenda. Trump himself publicly made threats over 100 times to go after his enemies that he calls “the enemy from within”, “radical left lunatics”, and other slanderous insults.

6. Lack of accountability: Leaders are not answerable to the public through free elections or other democratic mechanisms. Recent USSC decisions (radical right authoritarian decisions) have already made huge strides in attacking and neutering mechanisms of accountability. Two USSC decisions are front and center here. First and foremost is the decision that makes a sitting president immune from criminal prosecution for crimes if they are not “official acts”, a term that is undefined. Second, and at least as frighteningly authoritarian and powerful, is the June 2024 USSC decision to almost completely legalize bribery of elected federal politicians and sitting federal judges.

7. Arbitrary exercise of power: The USSC has already started to ignore established legal frameworks, allowing Virginia to purge a voter roll in the face of federal law that prohibited the purge. The MAGA movement seems to be on board with at least sometimes blowing off the rule of law when the law gets in the way.

8. Personality cult: The MAGA movement undeniably relies on the Trump. He is the MAGA cult leader. People will bicker over whether MAGA is a cult or not. Regardless, DJT is the driving personality.

9. Limited ideology: MAGA authoritarianism lacks a comprehensive guiding ideology. 

10. Control of institutions: MAGA authoritarianism seeks to dominate the media and judiciary. The military is an open question. There are good reasons to believe that Trump will try to install loyalists to senior military positions, especially the Secretary of Defense. What the MAGA movement will try to do is to flip the military from loyalty to the constitution to loyalty to Trump himself. Doing that seems to be unlikely to succeed at present, but time will tell how that authoritarianism v. democracy battle plays out.

All of the foregoing is why I refer to Trump, the MAGA power and wealth movement and its elites as radical right authoritarian. Christian nationalist dogma looks to me to be clearly radical right authoritarian, just as Trump himself and most of the MAGA elites are. 

Q1: Is it unwarranted hyperbole to consider Trump, MAGA elites and the MAGA power and wealth movement to be a lot more radical right authoritarian than merely conservative?

Q2: Even if MAGA and Trump are radical right authoritarian, is it counterproductive to defense of democracy to so say so, and instead better to use a softer label like “conservative”?

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Past posts on authoritarianism:

https://dispol.blogspot.com/2024/10/regarding-authoritarian-playbook.html https://dispol.blogspot.com/2024/09/germaines-war-on-incorrect-language.html https://dispol.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-science-of-measuring-morality.html https://dispol.blogspot.com/2024/05/ignorance-in-america-analyzing.html https://dispol.blogspot.com/2021/02/authoritarianism-heritable-or.html