Global warming update

New analyses indicate that the underwater current that shuttles heat around the Atlantic Ocean is possibly closer to irreversible shutdown by 2050 if we keep doing what we have been doing for decades. It is possible that we have already passed a non-return point but are unaware of it.

Experts have long known that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC — the system of ocean currents that transports heat and salt between the Southern and Northern Hemispheres — can suddenly and irreversibly shut down as a result of rising temperatures. A growing number of computer simulations, including two preliminary analyses published this summer, have suggested a collapse could occur as soon as 2050.

The world as we now know it is a product of this vast overturning. The AMOC moves carbon deep into the ocean and transfers heat at a rate of one quadrillion watts per second — 50 times the rate of energy use by humankind. It shapes the band of clouds that encircles the Earth at the equator, delivering rain to Africa and the Amazon, and brings balmy temperatures to Northern Europe, explaining why Scotland is much milder than Alaska and Newfoundland despite sharing the same latitude.

Differences in temperature and salinity are the engine of the AMOC. As long as North Atlantic water is salty enough — and therefore heavy enough — to sink as it cools, the system is self-reinforcing.

Yet over the past century, humans have warmed the planet by more than a degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) and caused the Greenland Ice Sheet to melt at a pace now exceeding 270 billion tons of ice per year. That influx of freshwater interrupts the salty northbound current, slowing its descent toward the seafloor.

If meltwater continues to flood the North Atlantic, many experts fear the AMOC may cross a tipping point at which it can no longer sustain itself, abruptly and irreversibly shutting down.

A study published this February in the journal Science Advances used the amount of freshwater moving around the South Atlantic to suggest the AMOC had gotten much weaker. Some of the same researchers suggested in preliminary analyses this summer that the system is likely to collapse around the middle of the century if the world remains on its current warming trajectory, and that it could tip even if humanity manages to limit warming to just over 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).

In October, dozens of top climate scientists issued an open letter calling on Nordic leaders to “take seriously” the risk of an AMOC collapse in the coming decades. Even a partial shutdown could lead to dangerously harsh winters in Northern Europe, as well as sea level rise on the east coast of the United States and dramatic shifts in rainfall around the equator.

When it comes to climate change, humans are playing Russian Roulette. Sooner or later we are going to face some real catastrophes. 

Q: How seriously does the Republican Party and MAGA generally take climate change?

A: The Republican Party and MAGA supporters exhibit a range of attitudes towards climate change, with a general trend towards skepticism, denial, or downplaying the issue. Many prominent Republicans, including former President Donald Trump, have historically called climate change a "hoax" or downplayed the link between human activity and a warming planet. According to Pew Research Center surveys, only 12% of Republicans and Republican leaners consider dealing with climate change a top priority for the president and Congress.

In unrelated news, some reporting indicates that Joe Biden now regrets hiring Merrick Garland. That is a not case of better late than never. It's a case of late is never. Also Biden regrets dropping out of the election, still believing that he would have beaten DJT in the 2024 election. Sigh. 

Thank you for your 'service' Joe

/s