Misinformation science; Global warming; Government transparency; Israel policy

The American Marketing Association reports about one aspect of partisan asymmetry:

Study: Republicans Respond to Political Polarization by 

Spreading Misinformation, Democrats Don't

In a new Journal of Marketing study, we explain what underlies these Republicans’ thought processes and behaviors [among Repub elites who still claim the 2020 election was stolen] and how the majority of news media and social media contribute to this problem.

The Lethal Combination: Polarization and Misinformation

Our team finds that political polarization triggers Republicans, but not Democrats, to spread misinformation that is objectively false. Although Republicans may understand the content is very likely false, they are willing to spread it. We also discover the reason why Republicans respond to political polarization by conveying misinformation, while Democrats do not: Republicans strongly value their party winning over the competition. Democrats do not value winning nearly as strongly; they place more value on equity and inclusion, seeing the world in a fundamentally different way than Republicans.

In other words, whenever there is political polarization—that is, fierce competition between political parties—Republicans feel their backs are against the wall and come out swinging.

What should be done to reduce the harmful effects of misinformation? We offer some ideas that could have a positive effect:

• Dampen political polarization in news media and social media. We find numerous instances when the same news story had a polarizing or less polarizing headline depending on the news outlet; for example, the Wall Street Journal said “tense vote” while the Guardian said “bipartisan vote.” [Huh?]

• However, marketplace incentives may be insurmountable because polarization increases audience size, engagement, and political donations. [Well, duh!]

• Invest more money in fact checking, which is now a task performed by volunteer organizations on shoestring budgets. [Snowball's chance]

• There are 18 U.S. states that mandate media literacy education to teach students how to detect misinformation in the media. We recommend that the remaining U.S. states follow their lead. [Snowball's chance]

The journal's status in its field, marketing, indicates it is a top tier journal, not a crackpot science source. Its metrics include a 5% manuscript acceptance rate and 2-year and 5-year impact factors, 11.5 and 15 respectively. That indicates it is a top tier journal in marketing science. Marketing science is heavily grounded in cognitive biology and social behavior. Deep, cutting edge knowledge in those two areas are essential to maximize business sales and profits.

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A NYT article discusses a really sad aspect (not paywalled) of global warming, ocean warming that stops deep ocean currents that bring chemical nutrients to surface waters. Those nutrients feed plankton growth. Plankton feed fish, which feed bigger fish and other animals that feed on fish of various sizes. 

Ocean Heat Wiped Out Half These Seabirds Around Alaska

About four million common murres were killed by a domino effect of ecosystem changes, and the population is showing no signs of recovery, according to new research.

The first evidence was the feathered bodies washing up on Alaskan beaches. They were common murres, sleek black-and-white seabirds that typically spend months at a time away from land. But in 2015 and 2016, officials tallied 62,000 emaciated corpses from California to Alaska.

Since then, scientists have been piecing together what happened to the birds, along with other species in the northeast Pacific that suddenly died or disappeared. It became clear that the culprit was an record-breaking marine heat wave, a mass of warm water that would come to be known as the Blob. New findings on its effect on murres, published on Thursday in the journal Science, are a stark sign of the perils facing ecosystems in a warming world.

About half of Alaska’s common murres, some four million birds, died as a result of the marine heat wave, the scientists found. They believe it is the largest documented die-off of a single species of wild birds or mammals. The state is home to about a quarter of the world’s common murres, scientists say.

Murres were the victims of a domino effect of oceanic changes tied to the warm water, according to a growing body of research. It affected marine life from plankton to humpback whales. Critically for the murres, it led to a collapse in the fish they depend on.

A murre colony in the Alaska Maritime National Wildlife 

Refuge, before and after the 2015-16 marine heat wave

For decades, the world’s oceans have absorbed more than 90 percent of the excess heat produced as humans burn fossil fuels and destroy ecosystems like forests. That heat has taken a severe toll on coral reefs, kelp forests and other marine ecosystems. Last year and into this year, the ocean’s surface temperature shattered records.

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The DOJ's (Department of Justice) OIG (Office of Inspector General) released its review of how the FBI handled DJT's 1/6 coup attempt. Note the mention of the OIG, that is critically important (see below). The report is generally positive about what the FBI did, with at least one significant exception. The FBI failed to canvass field offices for information from confidential informants from FBI field offices across the US. That is normally done for major events and the 1/6 event was seen as major. 

One needs to know that the FBI was not primarily responsible for capitol security. That responsibility was on the DC Police Dept., US Capitol Police and US Park Police. The FBI's role was to help coordinate law enforcement and information flows, not to fight off the insurrectionists.

• While the FBI undertook significant efforts to identify domestic terrorism subjects who planned to travel to the Capital region on January 6 and to prepare to support its law enforcement partners on January 6 if needed, we also determined that the FBI did not take a step that could have helped the FBI and its law enforcement partners with their preparations in advance of January 6. Specifically, the FBI did not canvass its field offices in advance of January 6, 2021, to identify any intelligence, including CHS reporting, about potential threats to the January 6 Electoral Certification.

• We found no evidence in the materials we reviewed or the testimony we received showing or suggesting that the FBI had undercover employees in the various protest crowds, or at the Capitol, on January 6.

I have no opinion about whether the FBI did a good, mediocre or bad job in the roles it had responsibility for on 1/6. 

I post about this to rise the issue of dying transparency in government. I believe that if one can assign a value of X for credibility and honesty in this report, subsequent reporting under authoritarian DJT and MAGA, reporting like this will either be (i) non-existent and maintained in secrecy, or (ii) have a credibility of about 0.2 or less, and (iii) under DJT, analogous reporting from other federal agencies will be either kept secret or have a credibility of about 0.2 or less. Why do I argue that? Because of this in Project 2025:

Q: What does Project 2025 say about plans for Inspector Generals, transparency in government and what are the implications for subversion and corruption of the federal government?

Plans for Inspectors General

Project 2025 proposes that the President should summarily fire the 74 independent Inspectors General currently overseeing federal operations. These IGs are responsible for detecting and preventing fraud, waste, abuse, and misconduct across federal programs. The plan suggests replacing these independent investigators with loyalists, thereby undermining the independence and objectivity of these watchdog roles. 

The project advocates for placing the FBI under a politically accountable leader, moving it out from under the direct supervision of the Deputy Attorney General. This shift could lead to the misuse of the FBI for partisan political agendas.

Transparency in Government

Project 2025 calls for changes to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) that would weaken its enforcement capabilities. It suggests raising contribution limits, which would give big donors more influence in politics, and limiting the prosecution of campaign finance violations, potentially leading to less transparency and more corruption.

The project opposes reforms aimed at strengthening the FEC, such as those included in the For the People Act, which would modernize the agency and enhance enforcement. This opposition could perpetuate the current state of the FEC, known for its inaction and partisan obstruction.

Etc.

MAGA wanting to obliterate Inspector Generals in OIGs throughout government is why I posted about this report. We will probably never see another report like this once DJT and MAGA control the federal government.

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By his silence, DJT implies that he is OK with Israel annexing the West Bank. If that happens, it would end practical possibilities for a separate Palestinian state based on contiguous land occupied and controlled by Palestinians.  

[DJT] was asked directly by the Time staff, “Do you want to get a two-state deal done, outlined in your Peace to Prosperity deal that you put forward, or are you willing to let Israel annex the West Bank?”

“So what I want is a deal where there’s going to be peace and where the killing stops,” Trump replied vaguely.

The Time staff doubled down, reminding Trump that he had stopped Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from annexing the West Bank in 2020. Again, he refused to answer directly:

“I’ll say it again, I want a long lasting peace. I’m not saying that’s a very likely scenario, but I want a long lasting peace, a peace where we don’t have an October 7 in another three years. And there are numerous ways you can do it. You can do it two state, but there are numerous ways it can be done. ....”

The West Bank has been under Israeli occupation since 1967. Despite a blatant violation of international law, the West Bank saw 33,000 new Israeli housing units in Trump’s first term, nearly three times as many as in Obama’s second term. His murky foreign policy plans and right-wing Cabinet likely mean that trend will continue.

As of June 2024, 146 out of the 193 United Nations member states recognize the State of Palestine as a sovereign nation. This is about 75% of all UN member states. Countries that do not recognize a Palestinian state include the US, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea and most Western European countries (with some exceptions, e.g., Norway, Spain, Ireland, Sweden).